Two European heavyweights collide as Liverpool welcomes Real Madrid to Anfield in the second leg of the Champions League quarter-final. Madrid dominated the first leg and go into the second with a well-deserved 3-1 advantage. The Reds will be hopeful of another mighty European comeback but this experienced Madrid side definitely won’t make it easy.
Madrid will still be without defensive duo Serio Ramos and Raphael Varane but other than that have no fresh injury concerns, so I expect a similar line-up to the one that done a job in Spain. Liverpool has the same squad fit as before but may opt for a change in midfield with Thiago coming back in.
Liverpool head into this as favorites on the night but are as long as 16/5 to reach the semi-final. It’s hard to know which Liverpool will turn up but you expect Klopp’s men to give it a right go. The Liverpool manager has only ever lost 1 two-legged tie in Europe as the Liverpool manager.
The 6x Champion’s league winners require a minimum of 2 goals here to progress so they will have to be at it from the off. However, this situation is something Liverpool have found themselves in many times in this competition, including last year’s Round of 16 tie vs Real Madrid rivals Atletico.
Given the games situation and the expectancy on Liverpool’s shoulders, I am inclined to take the 15+ shot line for the home side, available at even money on Sky Bet. The Reds managed a whopping 26 shots before extra time vs Atletico in last year’s campaign and I fancy them to at least hit the low line here. Liverpool has been far from clinical for the majority of the season which is another bonus for this bet. Despite winning 2-1 vs Villa on the weekend thanks to a late strike by Alexander-Arnold Liverpool found themselves chasing the game for large parts, resulting in 23 shots. They’ve hit this line in 3 of the last 4 home games, so it makes sense to back it again here given they have to attack from the start.
In knockout football and even more so second legs, you often see inflated shot counts due to the pressures on the side chasing the tie. For this reason and the current feeling, I get with this LFC side, I am going to nibble at the highest shot line for the hosts – 22+ shots are available at 14/1 on Sky Bet. This is no banker by any means but I’ve seen Liverpool trail many times this season and become desperate in the attack. Granted, the opposition is better than what LFC faces on a weekly basis but I can see Madrid sitting deep trying to protect that lead. Madrid raced into a 2-0 lead on the weekend vs Barcelona in a game where Barca mustered 18 shots, so I see no reason for Liverpool not to go gung-ho here, hopefully resulting in a high shot count as a result.
One prop bet I have a keen eye on is a Vinicius Jr shot on target at 10/11 with Betfair/Paddypower. The young Brazilian was a constant thorn in Liverpool’s side in the first leg. He managed 4 shots in total with half of these hitting the target and resulting in a brace for the left-sided winger. I fancy Real Madrid to play on the counter and with midfielders such as Modric and Kroos in the middle of the park, you would expect them to pick him out at a few times, in what has been a leaky Liverpool Defence this season. With how high Liverpool’s right-back plays there will undoubtedly be space in behind for Madrid to attack in to, which should see Vinicius threaten Liverpool yet again.
Comments are closed