There’s absolutely more at stake than just regional pride and local bragging rights in Dérbi do Minho when red-hot SC Braga host their nemesis Vitória de Guimarães tonight in a match that’s likely to go under the radar with the Champions League action tonight (sadly). But there‘s every reason to tune in here – Braga currently sit 3rd in the league just above Benfica and just below Porto while Guimarães come in at 6th position, somewhat behind this season’s surprise package Paços de Ferreira. Whilst obviously too early to call any final spot in this league, grabbing the win here will be crucial in the latter stages of the Liga NOS.
A major incentive in managing to build up consistency in a league that‘s completely dominated by the Big Three teams is the regular claim to an European spot. Braga have been making their biggest outsider claim on a domestic front while both making a name for themselves in Europe, both as a competitive force and a breeding ground of top level players (Trincao, Pedro Neto and Bruno Jordão most notable in the recent years). Their arch-rivals are definitely the underdog in this tie and the success of Braga recently will (rightfully?) anger them. The rivalry is fierce and the reverse fixture this season saw the referee working overtime – 8 cards (five yellows and three reds) as Braga snatched all three points despite only ending up with 9 men on the pitch).
All Moneyball aside, Braga’s performances this season have been great. Attacking wise, they take the most amounts of shots on home soil in Liga NOS and the attacking midfield duo of Ricardo Horta and Iuri Medeiros have been quite lethal for them. Braga namely overcame Porto in the Cup Semi-Final in an epic manner (clawing back to 2-2 in the dying moments of the first leg, while containing a Porto onslaught to win the second leg 3-2) and their goals per game average is 1.9. They’ve scored in all home games this season bar their first one, in an upset defeat against Santa Clara. However, tonight they‘ll be without a lot of regulars – aside from the long-term injury of prospective defender David Carmo we’ll see the Gverreiros without André Castro, Iuri Medeiros and Cristian Borja, all key players. Medeiros has been instrumental in the regular 3-4-2-1 formation that has seen Braga flourish and his partnership with Ricardo Horta has been magic. It‘s widely predicted that Braga must adapt to a different formation tonight and we might get to see magic from the former Chelsea travel agent Lucas Piazon who‘s managed to find good form since signing a permanent deal with Braga this January.
For Guimarães, the unexpected signing of Ricardo Quaresma might have been a bigger headline years ago but the winger has shown he still has something left in his boots. A constant threat down the right wing of the pitch he’ll be sorely missed tonight as one of Liga NOS most fouled player is reportedly out for tonight. But, the squad is far from being lacking in quality and they’ve shown to be quite adept at breaking down their opponents and left back Gideon Mensah has been a particular highlight in that sense. Midfielder André André (so good they named him twice) has made a magnificent pairing with Oscar Estupiñán and the duo has scored 13 goals between them. The theory here being that we see Guimaraes shift their attacking focus via Mensah – André² – Edwards they‘ll be lethal – and it‘s well possible to see them take on this side rather than the right they usually do with Quaresma out.
Now, the main angle – cards. If we take a surface look at Braga for cards, they‘re tame. Boringly so, I might add. But scratch beneath the surface and you‘ll find once they face an opponent that gives them a run for the money, they‘re quick to lose their temper.
- Have seen their share of cards in games against minnows who give them a fight, namely: Farense and Marítimo, where they got 3 yellows and were booked both halves.
- In their big games this season – v/Porto (4 & 3 yellow cards in both league fixtures), Guimarães(2 yellows, two reds), Benfica (3 yellows), Sporting (4 yellows).
- League notwithstanding: League cup has seen flurries of cards between Braga facing Benfica and Sporting and the semifinals in the Portuguese cup against Porto were fiery affairs, where three red cards were given across the two games. Braga were also keen on picking cards in their Europa League matches and five of six group stage matches got well heated.
Regarding Guimarães, they keep a much more consistent balance in their approach to cards – very frequently they’ve seen more than one booking, and their opponents as well. The aforementioned Double André has picked up six yellows and I wouldn‘t be surprised if he were to bag another today. They are not the biggest risk here, Braga is, but given that this occasion is a big one, both teams should get more than ready to hold off their opponents via rougher measures than necessary.
The referee tonight is Hugo Miguel, and he is well suited to the bet I’ll take. In his 11 games, he‘s given 51 yellow cards and interestingly 7 of them were given to Vitória. And, furthermore, they got a card in both halves from him. He keeps a good balance regarding the team cards and only twice has he gone to the break room at half time without having weathered at least one yellow card. Furthermore, he‘s been in charge of the Dérbi do Minho four times before and all but one saw each team getting carded once and there was an early booking as well.
There‘s ample betting angles to take here but the main one I‘m on is both teams to be carded more than once with any team receiving a booking in the first half. That is available via William Hill BuildYourOdds section and pays 1.91, which I‘m taking for 2 units.
Furthermore, for a couple of riskier long shots, I’m keen on the following, and also via William Hill
- Red card – 4.00
- Oscar Estupinan anytime goal scorer – 3.25
- Nico Gaitan anytime goal scorer – 3.75
- Al Motasim Al Musrati anytime goal scorer – 9.00
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