From our hard-working contributors for CBKProps.com, our free team/player stat portal for the big leagues, comes a selection of angles our experts fancy for the weekend. Our panel of experts this weekend consists of Billy (twitter.com/Billys_Bets), Ryan Walsh (twitter.com/profitbetting_) and IceTips (twitter.com/ice_tips1)
Billy Bets weekend angles
Brentford vs. Burnley – Saturday 21st October
Wilson Odobert over 1 shot @ 2.0 & over 2 shots @ 3.9 – William Hill
Odobert managed 3 shots in his first league start for Burnley, scoring 1 goal vs. Chelsea the last time out. Before that his record this season reads:
- 1 shot in 23 minutes vs. Newcastle
- 4 shots in the League Cup vs. Salford
- 1 in 12 minutes vs. Nottm Forest
In Brentford home games this season, wide right players have 3,5,2,2, shots.
If he starts and I’m hoping he does given the Chelsea game last time out then the prices are generous for a wide forward who likes to shoot.
Nottm Forest vs. Luton – Saturday 21st October
Jacob Brown over 1 shot @ 2.37 & over 2 shots @ 5.5 – Bet365
Brown is 2,3,0,4,1 for shots in the last 5 league games. On top of that he’s had 2 in 26 minutes vs. Exeter in the League Cup, 4 vs. Gillingham in the League Cup and 2 vs. Chelsea in 20 minutes in the league. Playing behind the forward in a game Luton will see as a realistic chance to pick up points hopefully results in shots.
Liverpool vs. Everton – Saturday 21st October
Alisson to win 1+ foul – 5.5 @ Skybet
Left field longshot this one but the reasoning is Everton will place a large emphasis on set pieces & could crowd Alisson making it difficult for him at every opportunity. Alisson was fouled twice in the reverse fixture towards the end of last season at Anfield
Bologna vs. Frosinone – Sunday 22nd October
Bet: Both teams to have 2+ cards – 2.1 @ Bet365
Bologna have seen 2+ cards in their last 5 games and average 2.5 cards this season. Their opponents average 3.25 p/g. Frosinone have seen 2+ in 4 of their last 5, averaging 2.25 this season. Their opponents average 2.37 p/g. Referee averages 5.66 p/g and 2+ both teams in 3 of last 4 head to heads. A red card to be given in the match is also worth considering. The ref has given a red card in both of his games this season & 5 in his last 9 games. There’s been 3 red cards in the last 5 head to heads between the two sides including the last game at Bologna in January.
Ryan Walsh’s weekend angles
Borussia Dortmund vs. Werder Bremen – Friday 20th October
Over 3.5 goal line – 1.890 @ Bet365
Friday night game always have goals in the Bundesliga. Bremen have conceded 16 goals in their last 5 games while also scoring 11 themselves in that run. Dortmund have had a decent start to the league and even scored 4 in their last game before the break.
Celta Vigo vs. Atletico Madrid – Saturday 21st October
Both sides to be booked in the first half – 2.05 @ Bet365
This bet has landed in 4 of their last 5 matchups. Celta Vigo are desperate for points as they sit in the relegation zone so a cagey affair is expected. Ref is averaging 5 a game this season so isn’t afraid to get the cards out. Madrid will Look to set the tone early in an away fixture as they often do. Celta players are sure to come with the intensity and pressure mounts on the players and manager.
Sheffield United vs. Manchester United – Saturday 21st October
Over 11.5 Free Kicks taken by Man Utd – 1.83 @ Bet365
United have earned 19 and 16 free kicks in their last 2 games. Sheffield have conceded the 4th most free kicks in the league at home and tend to give up more than their average 12 against the bigger teams (if you still count United as a big team). Their last 2 H2Hs saw Sheffield concede 17 and 19 free kicks respectively. With uniteds poor form, Sheffield will see this as an opportunity to get after them.
IceTips weekend angles
Brentford vs. Burnley – Saturday 21st October
Both teams to score – 1.80 @ Bet365/William Hill
Brentford are far from their best this season and it seems like the absence of GK David Raya plays it’s part there. In 8 Premier League matches they’ve only kept one clean sheet, against Fulham who played with 10 men for the entire of the second half. If we count the league cup with this statistic, they conceded a goal to Newport County, as well as against Arsenal – which is perhaps less surprising. On the flipside – and despite the absence of Ivan Toney – they’ve scored in all but one EPL match, and in 8/10 matches in EPL and the League Cup. Burnley has not kept a clean sheet in the league (they’ve done so in both League Cup matches) and while they’ve scored in 5 of those, it’s their opponents form for shipping goals against them I take interest in.
Darmstadt vs. RB Leipzig – Saturday 21st October
Over 3.0 goal line – 1.775 @ Bet365 / 1.78 @ William Hill
Rookies Darmstadt have been in fine form for goals both sides of the pitch and currently top the Bundesliga goals-per-match stat chart with a massive 4.42 goals per match – 1.71 for/2.71 against. Their 23/24 Bundesliga debut was a 1-0 loss against Frankfurt while the following six matches have been packed full of goals; 1-4, 1-5, 3-3, 1-3, 4-2 & 2-1. Leipzig are the fifth lowest in the side for goals-per-match but that doesn’t mean they’re going without them, with an average of 3.14 goals scored on average and they themselves contributing 2.26 on average. Five of seven Bundesliga matches have seen them at least landing three goals, and in the last round before the break they unbelievably didn’t manage to score against Bochum despite amassing an xG of 2.55.
Given that there’s been at least three goals in 78.5% of matches between them I’m happy to take them on for 1.78/1.775 on William Hill/Bet365.
Getafe vs. Real Betis – Saturday 21st October
Over 29.5 Booking Points for Getafe, Over 19.5 Booking Points for Real Betis and Over 19.5 second half booking points – 1.83 @ William Hill
Through and through Getafe has been synonymous with on-pitch roughness and there’s no difference this season – after nine matches they’re the side in La Liga with the highest accumulation of cards – 41 yellow and 3 red cards with 9, 2, 6, 2, 7, 6, 1, 5, 8 for team cards & 10, 7, 12, 5, 9, 8 ,3 ,7 ,11 in terms of match cards. A large average of 4.88 cards for the team and 8 (!!!!) match cards – not making the difference between red and yellow here. Their second halves have seen 3, 4, 7, 1, 6 ,6 ,3 ,3, 6 cards.
Real Betis isn’t the same in terms of being absolutely mental for bookings but to be fair no side in Spain is! Their current record for cards is 20 yellows and 1 red with 3, 2, 2, 3, 2, 2, 1, 2, 4 for team cards & 4, 3, 6, 8, 3, 5, 3 ,2, 7 in terms of match cards – average of 2.3 per team & 4.5 for match cards. Their second halves have seen 3, 1, 5, 5, 3 ,3 ,2 ,1, 6 cards,
Referee Cesar Soto Grado is one of the big carders in Spain, he’s taken charge of five La Liga matches this season and given out 11, 6, 5, 9, 4 cards. The first two matches were Getafe vs. Barcelona & Athletic vs. Real Betis where this card angle in particular landed. His form for bookings after the break are 7, 5, 4, 8, 4.
Nantes vs. Montpellier – Sunday 22nd October
Over 2.5 goal line – 1.8 @ William Hill
These two sides are the third best (Nantes, 3.62 goals on average) and fourth best (Montpellier, 3.38 goals on average). While the “over 2.5 goal line” angle have only landed in 5/8 for Nantes and 6/8 for Montpellier I’m encouraged due to Nantes high goal form at home – of 14 goals scored and 15 shipped against they’ve scored 10 at home and seen 9 against in 4 home matches. That should be encouraging for the Montpellier side that has scored 9 of their 16 goals away from home.
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