Euro 2020 – Netherland vs Ukraine Preview

With heavily fancied Belgium and dark horses Italy recording comfortable 3-0 victories in their opening games, Frank De Boer’s men will be hoping for similar. However, I feel the Netherlands is in for a tough evening against Andriy Shevchenko’s exciting Ukrainian side. At a glance at Ukraine’s recent competitive fixtures- most notably in the Nations League where they suffered heavy defeats to Spain and France- it would be easy to dismiss Ukraine’s chances at picking up any sort of result on Sunday. Ukraine has suffered a torrid time in preparation for the tournament as conflict with the Russian military has forced them to move home stadiums, as well as a severe covid outbreak that resulted in games being postponed and B-teams being fielded. However, with a fully fit squad at his disposal, Shevchenko can produce impressive results. 

En route to qualifying for this summer’s tournament, Ukraine topped a group containing current European champions Portgual, holding them to a draw in Lisbon, before a battling 2-1 win on home turf in the reverse fixture all but secured qualification. 

The competition being delayed by a year has dwindled any real hope of them winning the tournament due to Koeman stepping down. Koeman had reinvigorated an out of sorts squad who had failed to qualify for back to back tournaments and his departure was a kick in the teeth. It was up to the Dutch federation (KNVB) to hire a suitable replacement to continue what Koeman had started. They failed to do so- De Boer was appointed. De Boer was previously sacked at Inter Milan after 5 games, Crystal Palace after 4, and turned Atlanta from the best team in the MLS to a stagnant mid-table team. He also set an unwanted record of being the first manager to fail to win in any of his first 4 games in charge of the Oranje. With a talented squad at his disposal, De Boer insists on playing a cautious 5-3-2 formation- much to the dismay of the Netherland fans who flew a plane over the Dutch training camp pulling a banner that simply read “ Frank. Just 4-3-3! ”

Tactical Battles

4-3-3 vs 3-5-2 means a packed center of midfield is likely. Ukraine will likely start with the experienced Makarenko or Stepaneko holding, granting the energetic duo of Oleksandr Zinchenko and key man Ruslan Malinovksky license to roam forward. Malinovsky has had an impressive season for Atalanta in Italy, notching 8 goals and 12 assists from central midfield. The Netherlands also boasts an impressive midfield, with Malinovksys Atalanta teammate De Roon likely to be partnered by captain Wijnaldum and Barca’s De Jong. The Dutch midfield has a job on their hand containing a vibrant Ukraine midfield as well as covering for marauding wing-backs Dumfries and Wijndal. This could be their undoing as Malinovsky thrives off making late runs into the box where he may be untracked. The absence of Van Dijk makes Holland weaker at the back and Shevchenko’s men must fancy their chances of grabbing at least a goal.

Netherlands way past Ukraine could come through 6’6 target man Wout Weghorst. Coming off the back of a 20-goal season with Wolfsburg, Weghorst is a man in devastating form. He is a very unselfish player who likes to drop deep and link play. Unselfishness is the perfect trait to have when your striker partner in Memphis Depay. Likely to be up against 18 yrs old centre-back Illya Zabarnyi, Weghorst will look to dominate aerially and win fouls in and around the box. Zabarnyi has a big job on his hands and will need to remain disciplined against a potent attack who boasts over 40 domestic goals between them this season.

Prediction

I predict a cagey game as Ukraine will look to frustrate the Netherlands in-front of an expectant home crowd. The absence of Van Dijk for the Oranje and an inexperienced Ukraine backline should mean goals for both sides. A draw would probably suit both teams, as one win against weaker opponents in North Macedonia or Austria would be enough for progress. Officiating the game is Felix Brych who averages 6 yellows a game on the international stage this season. With a packed midfield and pace out wide, there is the potential for cards. Over 0 cards each team and Ukraine double chance (win or draw for Ukraine) on the bet 365 bet builder pays 3.50 and is a nice angle into the game. 

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