Hampden Park, Glasgow is the location for Friday’s crunch game between Croatia and Czech Republic. Croatia opened their Euros campaign with a 1-0 defeat to England, whereas Czech Republic is sitting comfortably at the top of the group after dispatching Scotland 2-0.
With 4 points being enough to secure round of 16 qualifications for the third placed teams in the last Euros- a draw against Croatia SHOULD see the Lokomotiva through to the knockout stages. In both group B and Group C, 3/4 of the teams have already reached or surpassed the 3 point mark- so it is hard to tell whether only 3 points will be enough for Croatia to proceed- so a positive result is needed for Zlatko Dalic and his Croatian side.
Croatia far exceeded expectations in the 2018 world cup, managing to get all the way to the final, where they were beaten 4-2 by France. The small Baltic nation had the perfect mix of talent, fight and experience amongst their ranks in their fantastic run, boasting players such as Ivan Rakitic, Ivan Perisic, Mateo Kovacic, and Balon d’or winner Luka Modric. However, this was an aging squad. Since this famous summer for The Kockasti, Mandzukic, Subasic, Rakitic and Corluka have all retired from international duty. It has been a mission to replace these key men and Croatia has gone massively downhill in recent years, with Dalic struggling to find a formation he is comfortable with. Since the 2018 World Cup, Croatia has played 22 games- winning 9, drawing 3, and losing 10 (the worst loss rate % of the 24 teams in the Euros since 2018). These games have amassed a total of 69 goals (34 for 35 against) – an average of 3.13 a game. Of these 22 games, 14 of these saw both teams score, with Croatia even conceding to Azerbaijan twice and suffering humbling 6-0, 4-1, and 4-2 defeats to Spain, Portgual, and France. In the same period of time, Czech Republic has played 22 games, winning 13, drawing 1 and losing 8, scoring 35, and conceding 24. This brings the average goal per game when Jaroslav Šilhavýs men are involved to 2.68- with both teams to score landing in 11 of these.
In Croatia’s opening game 1-0 defeat at Wembley against England they disappointed. England didn’t seem to get out of second gear yet still looked comfortable, amassing an xG of 1.51 to Croatia’s 0.36. This game was the only game in the first round of fixtures to see over 3.5 cards- with Croatia picking up 3 to England’s 1. Czech Republic’s impressive 2-0 win over Scotland saw Scotland rack up an xG of 1.95 to the Czech’s 1.09.
Schick’s halfway line goal only accounted for only 0.01 of that. In terms of fouls/cards, it was a bit of a drab occasion with 6 fouls apiece and 0 cards. However as alluded to, the first round of fixtures saw a low card count (23 in total across 12 games)- with 21 already being shown in half the games in match-day 2. With this in mind, cards also seem on the agenda, with both teams having decent card stats and both needing a result so a fiery contest is expected.
Statistics
Croatia last 10 competitive games
Fouls by game: 10, 11,12,15,15,12,9,14,15,8
Cards by game: 3,2,3,5,3y1r,2,3,2,3,2
Average Fouls Conceded Per Game:12.1
Average Cards Received Per Game:3
Croatia averages a card every 4 fouls, which means their fouls tend to be more rash and cynical. They have picked up at least 2 bookings in each of their last 10 matches.
Czech Republic last 10 competitive games
Fouls Per Game: 6,16,11,14,21,19,10,15,17,22
Cards Per Game: 0,1r1y,2,0,0,1,1,2,2
Average Fouls Conceded Per Game:15.1
Average Cards Per Game: 1.1
Despite racking up a high foul count per game, Czech Republic only picks up an average of just over 1 card a game.
Referee Stats This Season: 40 games- 176 yellows, 9 red (4.4 yellows PG, 0.225 reds PG)
What To Expect?
With Croatia chasing the win and Czech Republic happy with a point, expect Croatia to come out all guns blazing. Jaroslav Šilhavý will likely set his team out to frustrate Croatia and disrupt any sort of rhythm Zlatko Dalićs men may build up. As seen in the foul and card per game stats, Croatia does not need to commit many fouls to see cards, whereas Czech Republic has a high foul count but only sees a card a game. However, with the occasion of the game, tensions will be high, so it would not be a surprise to see referee Carlos del Cerro stamp his authority and put a stop to the foul count. I had good success on cards in Finland Russia so if it isn’t broken it doesn’t need to be fixed! Over 1 card each team is 5/2 on the bet 365 bet builder.
Whilst I expect Croatia to come out flying and push for an early goal, Czech Republic do boast superb aerial threat in Tomas Soucek and are also capable of scoring the spectacular- as shown by Patrick Schick against Scotland. Therefore, I am happy to play Both Teams to score which is 10/11 on Bet 365.
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