The first game of Match-day 2 in the Euros comes from St Petersburg, Russia, as major tournament debutants Finland face off against 2018 World Cup quarter-finalists and noisy neighbors Russia in a must-win game for the hosts.
After a shock run to the Quarters Finals on home turf in the 2018 World Cup, national pride and optimism were at an all-time high for the Russian natives. A relatively strong performance in qualifying for the Euros- albeit in a weak group- ensured a 4th consecutive Euros for Russia. However, the general feeling around the team heading into this crucial game is one of pessimism. Poor showings on the European stage for Russian teams as well as a lack of investment in domestic football have not helped the national teams’ cause- with only 4 players in the squad playing their trade outside of Russia. To compound this negativity, disappointing results in the past few months (5-0 to Serbia, 3-1, and 4-1 to Belgium), as well as a humbling opening game defeat to Belgium, have further dampened spirits. In the 3-0 defeat to the Red Devils, Russia looked disengaged and leggy- a far cry from the energetic, pressing machines we grew accustomed to watching in the World Cup.
The feeling in Finland could not be more different. Since securing qualification to their first ever major tournament in November 2019, the buzz around the country has been immeasurable, with a typically introverted nation coming together to prepare for history. According to UN world happiness report, Finnish people are the most cheerful and upbeat in the world- qualification for the Euro’s has only added to the ebullient nature of those that reside there. For a nation that has boasted some fine players over the years- most notably Jari Litmanen, Sami Hyppiä, and Scottish goalkeeper Anti Niemi, it remains a mystery how it has taken them 113 years to qualify for a major tournament. Whilst this team doesn’t boast big names such as Litmanen and Hyppiä, goal machine Teemu Pukki and Bayer Leverkusen goalkeeper Lukáš Hrádecký are crucial to any chances they may have. What makes this Finnish team so special is the unity and fight they show- a team that the Finnish residents can identify with.
Opening Game Stats
Russia’s opening defeat to Belgium was expected- but the performance would be the main worry for Stanislav Cherchesov ahead of Wednesday’s crunch tie. His team looked slow and lethargic and struggled to get on the ball- ending up on 34% possession. The Sbornaya didn’t even look like scoring- recording a tournament-low xG of 0.26- over half of that coming from set pieces.
Finland defeated many people’s dark horses in Denmark in a 1-0 win in Copenhagen. What should’ve been a joyous occasion for Finland was over-shadowed by the tragic incident involving Christian Eriksen- who is thankfully recovering in a local hospital. Whilst Denmark arguably wasn’t in the right headspace to continue the game, Finland still had a job to do and secured their first ever tournament win thanks to a Pohjanpalo header- the Fins only shot of the game.
Like Russia, Finland was chasing shadows for the majority of the game- only recording 30% possession, whilst the hosts racked up 540 accurate passes. Finland’s average possession for their last 9 competitive games now stands at 43%. Finland also wasn’t afraid to leave a foot in committing 12 fouls and collecting 2 yellows- a feat they have managed in their last 4 competitive games.
A Lot Riding On The Game.
As well as a mutual dislike between the countries, this game also has a lot riding on it. If Russia is to have any chance of qualifying for the knockouts, a win is a must. A weak goal difference and a tough game in Copenhagen against Denmark to end the group, this game is the epitome of a must win. Finland on the other hand knows a draw all but secures their progress to the knockouts. In Euro 2016 2 of the four best placed third place teams that qualified had 4 points, with the other 2 only having 3.
Russia will look to dominate from early, feeding long balls into 6’6 target man Artem Dyzuba, whereas Finland will look to frustrate the Russians. With 30,00 fans allowed to attend in St Petersburg, expect a fiery and hostile atmosphere.
Cards on the agenda?
As previously stated, this is a huge game for both teams. The mutual dislike for each other, as well as a hostile Russian crowd, should add to the spectacle. Both teams average high foul and card counts per game in competitive games and the factors involved could see the average exceeded.
Previous Game Key Card and Foul Stats
5 out of Russia’s last 7 games have seen them pick up 2+ cards
Russia last 7 competitive games
Fouls PG: 11, 14, 16, 10, 14, 14, 16
Cards: 0, 2, 3, 1,3, 4y 1r,2
Average: 13.5 fouls PER GAME
2.42 cards (bet 365 count red as 2)
Finland last 7 games:
Fouls: 12,10,11,7, 20,13,5
Cards: 2,2,3, 1r, 3,1,0
Average: 11.14 fouls per game
1.8 cards
As the stats show, neither side are shy in the tackle and is no stranger to cards. Overseeing this game is Dutch official Danny Makkelie who also refereed the opening game between Italy and Turkey where he brandished 2 cards. In his last 20 non-domestic games, Makkelie averages 4.5 yellows a game and 0.2 reds, booking both teams in 17 of those 20.
Now of course football is a strange game and not everything happens as the stats suggest they will, but based on the team’s average fouls per game, with the referee’s average cards per foul- the game should see some cards. With the other factors mentioned previously- cards look a good bet.
Best Bets
Bet 365 has set the Asian card line at 3- with odds of 1.8. This means 3 cards will see a refund of stake and anything above 3 cards will be a win. With the stats detailed above, I will be happy to have a play at this line. Over 1 card each team on the bet builder gives odds of 3/1. With both teams averaging around this figure (1.8 Finland and 2.42 Russia) in the previous 7 games and the ref averaging over 4 cards a game- this also offers a nice higher odds alternative.
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