Despite all the media coverage likely to be focusing on Wembley for England vs Germany, the game of the day could perhaps take place north of the border, where Sweden take on Ukraine.
Hampden Park, Scotland is the location for this intriguing battle between the Yellow of Ukraine and the Yellow of Sweden. Despite providing plenty of entertainment in the group stages, Ukraine were hit and miss. An entertaining 2-1 victory over North Macedonia was sandwiched in between two contrasting performances for Shevchenko’s men. A basketball style 3-2 defeat to the Netherlands was arguably one of the games of the group stages. Both teams were countering with pace and were clinical in front of goal. Ukraine carried this over into the North Macedonia game. 2-1 was the final score, but Ukraine had 17 shots (3.73 xg) to Macedonias 13 (1.30 xg). Going into the final game against Austria, a point would’ve been enough to qualify for the next round. Completely ditching his expansive counter attacking football, Shevchenko decided to take a back to the walls approach against the Austrians, barely mustering an attack and conceding 18 shots.
Sweden were contrasting to Ukraine in that their performances only got more attacking. A proper resolute defensive display coupled with some horrific Spanish finishing ensured Sweden escaped Seville with a clean sheet and a point- despite having only 15% possession. A dull 1-0 victory over Slovakia followed, before an enthralling 3-2 victory over Poland meant the Swedes topped their group ahead of Spain. Covid-stricken Dejan Kulusevski made his return to the side in the 55th minute- with the Juventus winger linking well up front with Alexander Isak and laying on two assists for his team mates.
Group Stage Shot/Corner statistics
Sweden vs. Spain
Sweden had 4 shots (1.17 xG) against 17 from Spain (2.35 xG)
Sweden had a single corner against 6 from Spain
Sweden vs. Slovakia
Sweden had 13 shots (1.78 xG) against 10 from Slovakia (0.51 xG)
Sweden picked up 7 corners against 6 from Slovakia
Sweden vs. Poland
Sweden had 11 shots (1.08 xG) while Poland took 18 shots (1.91 xG)
Safe to say corners were flying in as Sweden had six while defending against ten Polish corners.
Average Shots Per Game: 9.33
Average Shots Conceded Per Game: 15
Average Expected Goals Per Game: 1.34
Average Expected Goals Against Per Game:1.59
Average Sweden Corners Per Game: 4.6
Average Sweden Corners Against Per Game:7.3
Ukraine vs. The Netherlands
Ukraine had 7 shots (0.53 xG) while conceding 15 against the Netherlands (1.64 xG)
Ukraine took a single corner while conceding 5 from the Dutch.
Ukraine vs. North Macedonia
Ukraine took 17 shots (3.73 xG) against 13 from North Macedonia (1.30 xG)
Corners were evenly split with five each.
Ukraine vs. Austria
Ukraine, focusing on defense took only five shots (0.26 xG) while the Austrian side bombarded them, 18 shots (1.60 xG)
Ukraine similarly got 4 corners while the Austrian side picked up a corner with every other shot, taking 9 in total.
Average Shots Per Game: 9.6
Average Shots Conceded Per Game: 15.3
Average Expected Goals Per Game: 1.5
Average Expected Goals Against Per Game: 1.51
Average Corners Per Game: 3.33
Average Corners Conceded Per Game: 6.33
We can see both are evenly matched in shots taken per game (9.33/9.6) and shots conceded per game (15/15.3). Interestingly both teams also average higher than 1 xG per game (1.34/1.51) and xGA per game (1.59-1.51). In their last 11 competitive games which included playing Spain, France and Portugal (twice) and Croatia, Sweden have scored 13 goals while conceding 15. The Ukrainians have scored 11 and conceded 17 in the same period. Of the combined six games these two have played in this Euros so far – half have featured both teams scoring.
Referee
The referee taking charge tonight is Italian Daniele Orsato, making his third Euro 2020 appearance. The two prior matches where Orsato officiated, he brandished 4 cards (England vs. Croatia) and 5 cards (Spain vs. Poland). Orsato is no stranger to a card, maintaining a whopping average of 5.3 cards per game, with 27.2 fouls per game on average. Sweden and Ukraine have also been averaging 2+ cards per game.
Cards
Over 1 card each team is priced at 2/1 with Bet 365. A player who stands out in the card market is veteran AIK midfielder Sebastian Larsson. At 36, Larsson is a Sweden legend, accumulating 132 international caps in a career which has mainly seen him ply his trade in England (Arsenal, Birmingham, Sunderland & Hull City). In his last 41 competitive matches he has picked up 13 cards – an average of 1 every 3 games. Larsson averages 1.18 fouls per game for his national side, already making 3 fouls this Euros. In Sweden’ 4-4-2 formation he is likely to be playing on the right side of midfield and Ruslan Malinovsky is potentially his direct opponent. Playing mainly as part of a front 3, he draws 2.06 fouls against him per game. Assisting him down that side will be Vitaliy Mykokenko who averages 1.25 fouls against per game. Add the energetic Zinchenko into the equation and it could be a long night for Larsson.
Corners
As alluded to earlier, Ukraine concede an average of 6.33 corners per game. With Sweden hitting 7 against Slovakia and 6 against Poland, I expect Sweden to match this total against Ukraine. Over 5 Sweden corners is odds of 2.30 on bet365. However, it is who will be on the end of these corners that intrigues me the most. 6’4 Marcus Danielson will likely partner Lindelof in the Swedish backline. In terms of attacking, the brute of a centre back averages 0.71 shots per game for Sweden (0.57 on target). In his 12 caps for the Blue and Yellow, Danielson has 3 goals, including a goal against Armenia in the last warm up game. Domestically, he averages a shot every 1.7 games and a shot on target every 3. He has also hit 3 goals in 19 games. With the amount of corners I expect Sweden to have, a Danielson shot at 2.63 with sky bet appeals.
Summary
Whilst Paddy Powering offering odds of 2.1 for Both teams to score is tempting I’ll take the safer option, given how Ukraine played against Austria. Using Bet 365’s Bet Builder, Over 0 Sweden Goals, over 0 cards for each team and over 3 Sweden corners give odds of 2.50. With Sweden averaging more than a goal a game and Ukraine looking defensively vulnerable, I expect Sweden to find the net once. A card happy referee in charge of a round of 16 game, should mean cards, and over 0 cards each team is definitely achievable. Adding over 3 Sweden corners boosts the odds to give a juicy 2.50 bet. On the topic of corners, over 5 Sweden corners is similar odds in most places, however at odds of 2.30, Bet 365 have the best odds available.
Best Bets
Sebastian Larsson to be booked – 5.5 @ PaddyPower
Marcus Danielson 1+ Shot – 2.63 @ SkyBet (2+ for 9.0)
Sweden over 5 corners – 2.30 @ Bet365
Over 0 goals in the match for Sweden, Over 0 cards each team & Over 3 Sweden corners – 2.50 @ Bet365
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