Baku, Azerbaijan plays host to Saturday’s crunch Quarter Final tie between the Czech Republic and Denmark. The winner of this tie will face either England or Ukraine in the Semi-Final at Wembley.
In getting to the last 16, Denmark actually lost 2 of their 3 group games, but a 4-1 dispatching of Russia in the final group game was enough to seal their qualification to the knockouts. Kasper Hjulmand’s side then made history by becoming the first side in European Championship history to hit 4 or more goals in successive games. The Danes hardly broke a sweat in their 4-0 thumping of Wales. Despite the two aforementioned defeats in the opening games, Denmark has looked accomplished and dangerous throughout the tournament. The harrowing Christian Eriksen incident surely had an effect on his distressed teammates as they lost 1-0 to Finland. However, in this game, Denmark registered 22 shots including a missed pen and an Xg of 1.82.
Finland on the other hand scored their only shot of the game. The next game against one of the pre-tournament favorites in Belgium ended in a 2-1 defeat despite a goal after 2 minutes for Poulsen. Denmark again won the shot count, racking up 21 shots with a 1.66 Xg to Belgiums 6 (0.88Xg). Denmark likes having possession of the ball and isn’t afraid to have a shot. Their shot per game stats read 22 vs Finland, 21 vs Belgium, 16 vs Russia, and 16 vs Wales, an average of 18.75 a game.
The Czech Republic on the other hand qualified out of group D with 4 points, beating Scotland 2-0, drawing 1-1 with Croatia and losing 1-0 to England. In the last 16, an impressive display saw them beat Netherlands 2-0. Despite De Ligt’s sending off in the 52nd minute, Netherlands failed to create, with De Boers’s lackluster side not even mustering a shot on target. Patrick Schick has been crucial for Jaroslav Šilhavy’ men, scoring 4 goals thus far, including the goal of the tournament in the opener against Scotland. Unlike their Danish counterparts, the Czech hasn’t been peppering the shots in as much. Their stats for their games read 10 vs Scotland, 11 vs Croatia, 7 vs England, and 12 for the Netherlands, bringing their average to 10 a game.
Referee, Cards and Statistics
Overseeing this affair is Dutch official Bjorn Kuipers. So far this Euros, Bjorn has refereed two games, Denmark vs Belgium and Slovakia vs Spain- showing 4 yellows in both. In these games, both teams picked up at least 1 card, with 6/8 (75%) of these cards coming in the second half. These games saw 22 and 21 fouls, so Kuipers has given a card every 5.375 fouls.
Of their last 24 competitive internationals, Denmark has received an average of 1.04 cards a game (1 a game this Euros). The Czech Republic has a slightly higher average of 1.4 a game, with an average of 1.25 a game in this summer’s tournament. A full breakdown of the statistics can be seen below
What The Statistics Show?
From those statistics shown above, we can see the Czech Republic certainly leave its mark on the opposition- conceding 18.5 free kicks a game (offsides included). Denmark also draws 11 fouls a game, so expect some Denmark free kicks. Denmarks aggressive front-foot play with attacking talents such as Mikkel Damsgaard, Martin Braithwaite, and flying wing-back Joachim Maehle will look to suffocate the Czechs. One stat that stood out for me was the Czech Republic corners. They average 6.3 a game, only hitting less than 4 corners in 3/22 occasions. Therefore, I was surprised to see over 3.5 Czech Republic corners priced at 2.1. Over 4.5 corners are 3.3 and Over 5.5 is 6.5. If the Czech hit their average, all 3 lines will be winners. However, game state and a cagey game could affect these, so it would be wise to stagger your stake across the 3 lines to assure profit if only 4 corners hit.
Last 16 = Cards
Whilst the group stage saw the cards shown below average, the last 16 has seen a flurry of cards, with an average of 4.375 cards a game (with a red counting as 2 cards). Only 2 teams (Spain and Denmark) failed to pick up a card. In these games, 9 cards came in the first half (25.7%), with a whopping 26 (74.3%) being brandished in the second half. That’s an average of 3.25 second half cards per last 16 games. Kuipers has given 75% of his cards in the second half of games in this Euros.
Summary
As mentioned before, I am very keen on Czech corners. Their previous statistics and style of playback this up. Another line I am drawn to is Denmark free kicks. A bet builder including 12.5 Denmark free kicks, over 3 Czech Corners, and over 0 Czech cards gives nice odds of 2.87. The Czech Republic is averaging over 12 free kicks conceded this Euros alone, and with a lot riding on the game, expect it to get fiery. They also average over a card a game. Based on the last 16 stats provided, second half cards seem a way to get cards on board. A few player shots appeal (Holes and Hojberg in particular) but I will have to wait until team news for those ones.
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