As we head into week 9 of an already topsy-turvy EFL campaign, I will be previewing 5 games and bets that have caught the eye across the football league.
Matthew o’regan
Nottingham Forest VS Millwall
After a shambolic start to the season, picking up 1 point from a possible 21, Chris Hughton was relieved of his duties as manager of Nottingham Forest. Despite an impressive 2-0 victory over Huddersfield under the stewardship of caretaker manager Steven Reid, Forest were sat at rock bottom of the league until bitter rivals Derby was hit with a point deduction. Former Swansea manager Steve Cooper has been appointed as the new manager and will want to ensure his side gets off to the best possible start at home against Millwall.
Millwall has been this season’s draw specialists, with 5 draws from 8 games plotting them in 17th position. Gary Rowett has done a good job at the wall, leading the club to an 8th place finish last season. He possesses a team who will work hard and graft for him, sprinkled with the technical excellence of main talisman Jed Wallace. Whilst this Millwall side won’t see a lot of the ball, expect efficiency and hard work.
Both Teams To Score?
In recent years, Millwall has been renowned for being hard to beat and solid defensively, however this year, both teams to score (BTTS) has landed in 7/8 games, with the exception being a 0-0 draw away at Swansea. This cements them at the top of both teams to score tables alongside Reading. Forest games have seen both teams to score in 5/8 of their games (63%) and 75% of home games. Steve Cooper inherits a side with an abundance of attacking quality such as Joe Lolley, Brennan Johnson, Lewis Grabban, and Lyle Taylor, and will be hoping to give these players the attacking freedom that Chris Hughton perhaps restricted. Add in the fact it is in front of a packed City Ground crowd, expect a flying start here.
Both teams to score- 2.05- Betfair- (Available at evens on bet 365 and William Hill)
Swansea vs Huddersfield- over 2.5 xG
Fresh off of a 2-0 defeat away at Brighton midweek, Swansea is back at home facing high-flying Huddersfield at the Liberty. After the departure of manager Steve Cooper in the summer, chief executive Julian Winter swooped in to appoint highly sought-after manager Russell Martin from MK dons. At the age of 35, Martin is very young in the management game and caught the eye for his distinctive passing football when at MK. Games often ended to end with MK scoring 64 and conceding 62 last season.
However, the Swans have failed to replicate the free-scoring team Martin had last season, scoring 7 and conceding 11 in 8 games. In the 2-0 defeat to Brighton, Swansea was unlucky not to score, hitting the woodwork on more than one occasion. Martin’s philosophy takes a while to implement, but recent signs show they’re slowly getting there. A 3-3 draw away draw at Luton saw 16 Luton shots and 15 Swansea. The 0-0 draw against Milwall saw 12-10 shots in favor of Swansea with both teams with an xG of over 1. The 0-0 draw against Hull before this saw 16 shots for Swansea. So in the last 3 league games, the Swans have seen 43 shots for only 3 goals. With a bit more cutting edge, it is only a matter of time before Swansea finishes these chances.
Huddersfield has surprised many this season and is sat just outside the playoffs in 7th place. The Terriers look comfortable in their 3-5-2 formation as it allows creative lynchpins Lewis O’Brien and Sorba Thomas full freedom to create. Huddersfield has scored 13 and conceded 11 in their 8 games this season so aren’t shy of scoring or conceding. After a disappointing 2-0 home defeat to Nottingham Forest, Carlos Corberán will be hoping his side can bounce back and move into the playoff spots.
Goals?
Whilst over 2.5 goals have only landed in 50% of Swansea’s game this season, their shot and xG total in recent games is enough for me to side with goals. Both sides will be seeing this as a winnable game so will be on the front foot as it is in both manager’s philosophy. Over 2.5 goals have landed in 63% of Huddersfield games this season, putting them 6th in the league in this metric. 3 of their 4 away games have seen over 2.5 goals, with the exception being the opening day 1-1 draw at Derby which saw the Terries accumulate an XG of 1.91 and 17 shots.
Bet: Over 2.5 goals- 2.3- Bet365/Betfair
Morecambe Vs Accrington
Dropping down to League 1 and a fascinating tie in Lancaster as Morecambe face Accrington. Both teams have punched above their weight for years and full credit goes to both for being in League 1. A full-blooded entertaining rivalry game is expected at the Globe Arena.
After a miraculous promotion to the third tier under Derek Adams( who has now departed), many expected Morecambe to be the League 1 whipping boys, but Stephen Robinson has exceeded expectations, with the Shrimps sat in 16th. It was a summer of high player turnover for Morecambe, but Robinson has got his side gelling and playing good football. An industrious and highly talented midfield featuring Toumani Diagouraga and Adam Phillips would be the envy of many a team in the league. Morecambe hasn’t just come to frustrate teams and pick up 0-0s every game, with 12 goals scored and 11 conceded for them in many entertaining games.
Saturday’s opponents Accrington are another team who like to entertain. With John Coleman embarking on his 8th year at Stanley, he will be hoping this is the year his Accrington side makes it to the second tier. With a strike force of Dion Charles and Colby Bishop, Accrington has goals in abundance. In such a fierce game like this, Coleman will have his side fired up and racing out the traps.
Goals? Cards? Both?
Whilst both teams to score has only occurred in 50% of both these side games, both sides have the ability to have high scoring games, as shown in Morecambes 4-3 defeat to Wimbledon and 3-1 victory over Crewe and Accrington’s 4-1 defeat to Wigan. As mentioned before, it is a bitter rivalry so both teams will be keen to put on a show for their fans.
In terms of cards, Accrington ranks 2nd in the league for yellow cards received (2.75 per game) and highest for away yellows (3 per game). Morecambe only ranks 15th for yellows received but average 2 home cards a game- ranking them 9th. In away games, Accrington ranks highest for yellows against (3 per game) and average 2.25 against all season. Morecambe are 5th for opponent yellows in home games (2.75 a game) and average 2 yellows against per game. Referee Marc Edwards has refereed 2 leagues 1 games this season, showing 8 cards. Last season he showed 46 yellows and 1 red in 12 games (an average of 3.88 a game).
Both teams to score- 1.80 Bet 365
40+booking points- 2.10 sky bet
Each team 20+ booking points-3- Sky bet
Rotherham Vs Crewe
6th place Rotherham welcomes struggling Crewe to the Aesseal Stadium, hoping to creep into the automatic promotion spots. After relegation from the second tier again last season, the Millers will be hoping to bounce back and gain instant promotion in what is a very competitive league. There are about 12 teams who’d fancy their chances of promotion, so every game is crucial. Sat in 6th with 4 wins from 8, it has been a solid start to the campaign for Paul Warne’s side. Such is the nature of league 1, only 6 points separate Morecambe in 16th and Wigan in 1st, so it is imperative to build momentum early.
An impressive 2-0 away at Bolton was the perfect way to silence any early-season doubts and Warne will be hoping for a similar outcome at home to the struggling Crewe. With strikers such as Josh Kayode, Michael Smith, and Will Grigg, Rotherham have enough firepower to overcome most teams.
It has been a depressing season thus far for fans of Crewe. With 1 win in 8, the Railwaymen sit in 22nd. On top of this, they have lost players such as Owen Dale, Charlie Kirk, Ryan Wintle, and Harry Pickering (loan expiring). A 3-1 home defeat to Morecambe last time out certainly didn’t help the disarray around the club at the moment. Their away form has been a major worry, with only 1 point and 1 goal away from Gresty Road.
Corners The Way In?
All the signs point towards a home win, but with the best price of 1.55, I would find it hard to back that as a single. However, adding corners into the equation makes the Millers a lot more favorable. Rotherham averages 6.75 corners a game- the second-highest average in the league. Crewe concedes 5.25 a game on top of this. With Rotherham expected to dominate, corners could be a good way to add value to Rotherham’s chances of winning.
Bet: Rotherham to win and over 4 Rotherham corners- 1.90 bet 365
Forest Green vs Tranmere
The last game under the microscope in the EFL comes from Nailsworth, as table-topping Forest Green face off against 11th placed Tranmere.
These two sides have a bit of history- after a few tasty battles in their national league days, there is animosity in the air when these two face off. The green army has had a blistering start to the season, winning 6, drawing 1, and losing 1 of their opening 8 games under manager Rob Edwards. Playing a fluid 3-5-2, Forest Green has talent all over the pitch, most notably in attack with Jamille Matt and Matt Stevens contributing 11 goals between them.
Tranmere on the other hand has been stumbling along. If you want entertainment and goals- don’t watch a Tranmere game as Mickey Mellon’s side has only scored 4 and conceded 3 this season- with none coming away from home. This should encourage Forest Green as a couple of goals should be enough to win it.
With Forest Green priced at 1.83 to win- the addition of under 6 goals gives a nice boost to 1.90.
Bet: Forest Green win and under 6 goals- 1.90 bet 365.
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