Iceland hosts Romania at the Laugardalsvöllur in the first of their three home games during the current (ever popular) International break and there’s a big reason to see the hosts struggling to get a result. The Icelandic national team is currently going through a rough transitional period as the “golden generation” of Euro 16 is largely missing and the squad – and Football Association – is currently in major shambles.
The hosts
The absences in the Icelandic national team are too big to surmount. As the English Premier League was about to start, Everton reported they’d suspended a senior player due to sexual allegation charges. Whilst not naming the player, Icelandic media confirmed that Gylfi Sigurðsson was the man in question and will (obviously) not feature. Furthermore, Kolbeinn Sigþórsson and Rúnar Már Sigurjónsson who were called up to the team for the upcoming matches will not feature. Following the former player’s call up, the Football Association was exposed to having covered up a sexual assault charge against Kolbeinn and mediated a Non-disclosure agreement with the plaintiff which led to the chairman resigning and the board of FA trying unsuccessfully to put out the fires and ultimately kicking him off the team. The entire board of the association has since resigned and more reports of misconduct, violence and/or sexual assault have come to light against the “golden generation” . Assistant coach Eiður Guðjohnsen is also back after a leave from work following a video circulating of him urinating in public whilst heavily intoxicated. To make matters worse there are notable absences in: Ragnar Sigurðsson, Sverrir Ingi Ingason, Hörður Björgvin Magnússon, Hólmar Eyjólfsson, Aron Einar Gunnarsson, Arnór Ingvi Traustason, Jón Daði Böðvarsson and Alfreð Finnbogason (Only around 400 caps between them), as well as veteran centre back Kári Árnason reported as doubtful in advance of the game, having had to pull out of a national team practice halfway through in preparation for Romania. Speaking of performance on the pitch, the Icelandic squad has been less than exciting, as they’ve only managed to beat Liechtenstein in this group, losing against Germany and Armenia this spring. A long and demoralizing dry spell in the Nations’ League A Division saw Iceland become an easy opponent for England, Denmark, Belgium and Switzerland over two separate campaigns. Furthermore, Iceland ultimately missed out on Euro 20 qualification via group as they finished third, seeing France and Turkey snatch the top spots. But, managing to sneak their way into Euro 20 playoffs via the Nations’ League, it was Hungary who thwarted the dream in the final minutes of the match after managing to snatch a win against, who other than Romania beforehand, 2-1 at home – with their strongest lineup.
Comparing the previous match against Romania to the possible lineup here, there surely are a few red flags. Goalkeeper Rúnar Alex Rúnarsson has been out of favor at Emirates Stadium and his last competitive game was against Liechtenstein in March. Alfons Sampsted has been a regular for Bodo/Glimt but has not been in top form with the national team. Brynjar Ingi Bjarnason is one of the success stories in the Icelandic Premier Division this season and earned a move to Serie B side Lecce but hasn’t featured for them yet. Veteran Birkir Bjarnason only recently joined Turkish Super Lig Adana Demirspor and beforehand was out of pitchside action since May – even didn’t feature for the June friendlies Iceland played. Lastly, the thin forward department is headed by Andri Lucas Guðjohnsen (yes, from that lineage of Guðjohnsen – he’s Eiður Smári’s son) who surely is one for the future and played his first ever senior match with Real Madrid Castilla squad last weekend, but read that sentence again and repeat “first ever senior match”. 180 international matches between this squad which is semi-fit for games, on average. As the Icelandic national team famously soared up the FIFA rankings list years ago, the Icelandic squad didn’t always have a 100% club match fitness. But the players performed well nonetheless, and the pride in playing for the flag was attributed to that. With recent events and non-stop press criticism of matters regarding the national team, however, that might get stressful.
The visitors
Seeing as the Romanian team has had a hard time with away matches (last win came against Austria in September 2020) it is understandable to see the bookmakers not favoring them to thrash Iceland here. However, following the first three rounds, the group is wide open for them to mount to a challenging spot and their run of games sees them fit to play their strongest squad vs. Iceland, experiment more against Liechtenstein before they start the second round of games against North Macedonia. Whilst there’s a similar period of transition in their midst, seasoned stalwarts Vlad Chiriches and Ciprian Tatarusanu are to be found in their defense. Having amassed 64 international games for Romania, Sassuolo defender Chiriches has seen a minor resurgence in his career since leaving Naples in 2019 and he played a significant part in his team’s 2020 season despite suffering from injuries, averaging 1.58 tackles per game (thereof 0.96 won) and over 2 interceptions and clearances per game. Cagliari midfielder Razvan Marin was one of their few bright spots as his crossing was much coveted in an otherwise underwhelming season for the Sardinian side – finding his rhythm after being disregarded at Ajax following his breakout season 2018 at Standard Liege. Perhaps one of Romania biggest young talent, Dennis Man, is featured after having a stormer of a season in an otherwise underwhelming Parma side, and after showing his promise in FCSB (known as Steaua Bucharest for all but legal reasons). Man has been finding his position behind the centre forward and on the wings as opposed to his humble beginnings up front for UTA Arad even though his debut season in Liga I saw him scoring 15 goals in 34 appearances, securing his climb up his domestic football ladder to FCSB. Whilst he only played less than half a season for Parma, he became somewhat a cult favorite amongst prop bettors due to his knack for taking shots – having 20 shots in his first 14 Serie A games, scoring two goals (seven shots against Roma, Milan and Inter combined, further highlighting his fearlessness and never-say-die attitude).
Against Iceland, everyone can score?
Whilst we leave Romania on a point about a fearless winger creating chances, we can also take a look at a long standing trade of the Icelandic squad to see goals conceded from midfielders and wingers:
- In the first game against Germany, midfielders Leon Goretzka and Ilkay Gundogan shipped in goals against the Icelandic squad. The Germans ran out 3-0 winners with the only forward goal coming from Kai Havertz
- Armenian wingers Barseghyan and Barayamyan scored the goals in Armenia’s 2-0 win in Yerevan.
- Left forward Yanik Frick scored the only goal as Iceland beat Liechtenstein 4-1 following a set piece error.
- In a friendly vs. Mexico, it took a substitute appearance by Hirving Lozano, pushed into a left field position to overturn the 1-0 lead Iceland took against El Tri
- As Poland prepared for Euro 20, Iceland found themselves down due to a goal by left winger Piotr Zielinski.
We can see the trend of conceding from open play being furthered by all of England’s four goals delivered from the middle of the pitch (Declan Rice, Mason Mount and Phil Foden), two penalties conceded to Denmark, Loic Nego and Dominik Szoboszlai turned Hungary’s fortunes around in Euro 20 playoffs (both employed in the middle of the pitch), left back Robert Skov scoring against Iceland in the Nations League. Only the major occurrence of forward goals against Iceland in the last year or so is against Belgium, where Romelu Lukaku, Jeremy Doku, Michy Batshuayi and Dries Mertens got goals coming from forward positions. Set pieces are a problem for the Icelandic team.
Best bet
Romania 0.0 AH – 1.95 Bet365*
Longshots**
Razvan Marin to score at any time – 10.0 PaddyPower
Dennis Man to score at any time – 4.33 Bet365
Romania to score 1+ goals, Romania 5+ corners & Iceland 2+ cards – 5.5 PaddyPower
*when the article was written, the bet was taken at these odds. Since then, odds have drifted on Bet365 and are, as of now, 2.050. Draw No Bet is essentially the same outcome and that’s roughly the same odds as initially taken now – in case your sportsbook offers Draw No Bet but not 0.0 Asian handicap
** Player specific props are advised to be taken as the lineup is confirmed. Bet365 has “Void if player doesn’t start” option whilst PaddyPower does not have it.
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