The second round of the World Cup qualification groups continues this weekend in Europe and Group J is perhaps poised a lot differently than first expected (well, aside from Germany topping the group and Liechtenstein coming last). After a horrendous display in their Euro 20 qualifying campaign, Armenia has improved vastly and find themselves second in the group, with Romania and North Macedonia biting their heels. Iceland, on the other hand, continues to under-perform (relative to their glorious Euro 16 and WC 18 performances) and is starting to remind their population of the national team they used to know.
The hosts
There’s nothing but trouble following the Icelandic national team on and off the pitch lately. After last months’ terror of an international window (can be read here), the Volcano Men really are worse off; long serving GK Hannes Halldórsson and CB Kári Árnason announced their retirement from international football – Hannes’s exploits since his football career is at end can be read at Sky. Sexual abuse allegations against national team members continued to surface, promoting the swift withdrawal of Aron Einar Gunnarsson who was set to return. Johann Berg Guðmundsson and Jón Guðni Fjóluson withdrew from the squad due to injuries following their call up (and with some discontent about selection policies). Since the last international window, the Icelandic football Association has completely imploded and a new board is in charge. Aside from this behind-the-scenes turmoil, there’s immense international experience gone out the window following this rotation and there’s no doubt in my mind the replacements are a downgrade. No goalkeeper has managed to even rival the departing Hannes and the second-in-command, Arsenal flop Rúnar Alex Rúnarsson isn’t exactly one you’d expect to save a Messi penalty. There might be hope in young keepers Patrik Gunnarsson and Elías Rafn Ólafsson but neither has played a senior international match before and while both have regular game time, the gap from u21 to senior international football is quite a leap. The replacement CB for Kári is Daníel Leó Grétarsson – and unless you’re as mental as Matthew O’Regan regarding the English Football League you probably won’t even recognize him since he’s been absolutely out of favor at Blackpool since their promotion to the Championship. Other option at the back is Hjörtur Hermansson but he’s provided all but security in defense when featured. Aron’s replacement is SPAL midfielder Mikael Egill Ellertsson – who’s 19 and has only featured thrice from the bench this season, but the midfield and wings aren’t really problematic – the attack is. Following the absence of Gylfi Sigurðsson and Kolbeinn Sigþórsson due to off-pitch degeneracy as well as Alfreð Finnbogason being injured the forward department is massively thin, and the four strikers selected boast of 46 games combined and only five goals.
Those selection issues aside, Iceland hasn’t been preparing properly for their national team players to age and a new generation of players is absolutely not ready hasten this changing of the guards. What used to be their stronghold – Laugardalsvöllur – is basically its former shadow these days and the home fans have had to watch their side lose four out of last five competitive home matches and Iceland has only won one of the last 10 competitive matches. That win came away against Liechtenstein and Rúnar Alex Rúnarsson still didn’t even manage to keep a clean sheet. Against Liechtenstein. Let that sink in.
The visitors
Armenia on the other hand are finely poised in this group and after their reverse fixture, which kicked off their qualifier campaign, they’re currently second ahead of Romania. There’s definitely decent incentive for the Armenians to try to make the most of this window – Romania plays Germany at the same time this match kicks off (and most likely won’t get a point from that encounter), and should Armenia leave Iceland with three extra points, they’ll have a decent breathing space for their next match – conveniently against Romania. Whilst Armenia might not be globally renowned for churning out A-Level talent we can safely say that’s necessarily not needed to win Iceland these days!
Most football enthusiasts will however recognize their star player Henrikh Mkhitaryan who’s been an instrumental member in José Mourinho’s start with Roma (and perhaps surprisingly to some, given their working relationship in Manchester), and he’s one to cause havoc in the torn asunder Icelandic defense – Iceland is notoriously bad at containing powerful midfielders/wingers and have been for a while. Armenia’s attacking focus is mostly down the right side, with Mkhitaryan and Rostov player Khoren Bayramyan combining for strong linkups. At the heart of defense we can find Varazdat Haroyan who joined Cádiz in La Liga this season as has been featuring frequently, averaging 1.4 tackles per game and 3.7 clearances for the Andalucian side – and the penchant for tackles is well boosted on average with his national side, rising to 2.6 per match. As the highest carded Armenian this campaign, there’s incentive for him to steer traffic away from their own six yard box by all means necessary. Armenia also welcomes forward Lucas Zelarayán from Columbus Crew as the Argentine born player recently pledged his allegiance to his ancestral land. Having scored regularly both for Crew and Tigres in Liga MX he’s undoubtedly a welcome addition to the squad.
Key statistics
Iceland
The Icelandic national team has scored 21 goal while conceding 40 in the past 20 competitive matches – 13 losses with five being wins and two draws. The only points gained since the Euro 20 qualifiers came in a 2-2 draw vs. North Macedonia and a 4-1 win versus Liechtenstein. Putting it in context with squad selection issues, only nine of the 21 goals scored come via players currently selected.
Iceland has looked to set pieces historically in creating goal opportunities, and corners have come in easy for the hosts, especially at home. While the Nations League brings their form for corners slightly down (vs. England, Belgium and Denmark) this campaign has seen Iceland averaging 10.17 corners per match, with 6.33 average corners for Iceland. The range is 0, 3, 4, 8, 10, 13. The lowest counts come against Germany, and the reverse fixture saw Iceland hitting 10. Last round of home games saw (as mentioned) 0 vs. Germany, 4 vs. North Macedonia and 8 vs. Romania. It’s worth noting that Iceland (understandably) never stood a chance against Germany, Iceland mounted a comeback vs. North Macedonia and spent most of the match against Romania struggling for a result. While chasing for a result, Iceland can surely amass a corner or two.
Armenia
The Armenians have recorded nine wins in the last 20 competitive international matches with five draws and six losses. Their goal tally stands at 29 scored and 36 conceded. As mentioned before, their Euro 2020 qualification campaign was shocking and that includes a 9-1 loss versus Italy. This campaign, Germany also thrashed them 6-0. Taking those two out of the equation (and fairly, since Iceland hardly rivals Germany and Italy), they’ve conceded 21 goals.
Armenian Euro 20 campaign saw them drawing the shortest straw, corner wise as they conceded on average 6.9 corners and 10.7 corner matches on average. Their Nations League campaign and current World Cup 22 qualifying path sees them more balanced with 9 corners seen on average and 4.67 for Armenia. Armenia’s range this competition is 0, 0, 1, 6, 9, 9, pushing their average back a notch (8.67, 4.17 for and 4.5 against). Last two away matches for Armenia saw them hitting 0 corners with their opponents seeking out 6 and 3 (Germany and North Macedonia respectively).
Best bets
Armenia 0.0,+0.5 Asian Handicap – Bet365 @ 2.050
Shared with TeamCBK as a 2 unit bet
Over 9.0 Asian corners – Bet365 @ 1.950
Recommended stake – 1 unit
Iceland -1 Corner Handicap (3 way) – Betfair @ 2.1
Recommended stake – 1 unit
Longshot
Varazdat Haroyan & Birkir Már Sævarsson to be booked Betfair @ 16.95
Recommended stake – 0.5 units (Haroyan is priced 3.50 for a single on Betfair, while best odds for Birkir Már as a single is 5.5 via Coolbet)
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