The English football pyramid is the best in the world, and I am back again to preview games from the Championship, League 1 and League 2
Derby vs Bournemouth
The one and only Championship game I am previewing for this article is one I looked at for my card article. Derby entertains Bournemouth at Pride Park.
As I have already looked at this game in the player cards, it won’t come as a big surprise what angle I am looking at for this bet. You guessed it… cards.
Gavin Ward is the highest carding official from the Championship this week, averaging 4.46 cards per game. Derby and Bournemouth are both averaging at least 2 cards per game, with the hosts picking up 2.29 yellows per game, with the visitors getting 2. So not only do we have a referee who hands out cards like it’s Christmas, we have 2 teams who are happy to receive these cards.
In terms of cards against, The Rams opponents have picked up 2 cards per game, whereas the Cherries opponents have only picked up 1.67 a game. However, due to the high nature in which Derby pick up cards and a card happy ref, over 19.5 booking points for each team is a bet I’m willing to take a plunge on.
Best Bet – Over 19.5BP each team- 2.70- William Hill. 0.5 units
Fleetwood vs Morecambe
Cod’s vs Shrimps takes centre stage in Lancaster. Or as they’re commonly known, Fleetwood and Morecambe. The two bitter rivals face off at Highbury stadium.
The oh-fish-oal for the clash is Darren Drysdale. The authoritative referee has given an average of 4.07 cards a game. Whilst both teams average below 2 cards a game, hopefully, a passionate crowd for this derby means Drysdale gets his cards tr-out.
Both teams are small teams in terms of crowd size and are punching massively above their weight. One point separates the bitter rivals, with Fleetwood in 22nd on 14 points and Morecambe just above the relegation zone on 15 points. Simon Grayson and Steve Robinson will both be desperate for a win and this will hopefully lead to loads of action.
As well as cards, another angle I’m keen on is for both teams to score. Of Fleetwood’s 8 home games this season, 5 have seen BTTS (63%). Morecambe’s away trips have seen BTTS in a whopping 88% of games (7/8). Overall, Fleetwood ranks second for BTTS with it landing in 11/15 of their games (73%), whilst it has landed in 10 of the visitors 16 games thus far (63%).
Best Bets
Fleetwood Morecambe- BTTS 1.80 WILL HILL 1u
Both teams over 19.5BP 2.20 – Will Hill 0.5 u
BTTS and over 19.5 BP each team – 3.80 William Hill -0.5u
Wigan Vs Oxford
The other League 1 game that takes my fancy for goals is Wigan vs Oxford.
Leam Richardson has done a fantastic job of rebuilding a Wigan side that was so harshly dismantled. He has them sitting 2nd in the table, 2 points off the leaders Plymouth with a game in hand.
Oxford is also flying; sitting sixth in the table 6 points off the hosts. Karl Robinson’s side is an exciting watch, with action often happening at both ends of the pitch.
Wigan’s home games have only seen BTTS land 5/9 times (56%), but the ‘Tics have scored in every home game. BTTS has landed in 5/7 Oxford games (69%). The last away game for Robinson’s side was a thrilling 4-3 at Bristol Rovers in the Fa Cup. With the stats and occasion to back this bet up, let’s hope both sides oblige.
Best Bet
Wigan vs Oxford- BTTS- 1.80- William Hill/Paddy 1u
Harrogate vs Salford
Onto League 2 now and my favourite game of the weekend, Harrogate vs Salford.
The pre-season promotion favourites Salford have had an abysmal start to the season under Gary Bowyer and sit in 17th place. The League 2 Galacticos have splashed the cash on their star-studded team so the pressure will be on Gary Bowyer.
Harrogate have been the leagues’ entertainers, scoring 30 goals- the most in the league. Simon Weaver’s Yorkshire outfit are sat in 5th, 2 points off the automatic promotion places.
They are fresh off of a 3-1 win away win vs Walsall.
Taking charge of this game is King Charles Breakspear, coming off the back of brandishing 7 yellows in Solihull vs Wigan. Harrogate have gained 1.31 cards per game but their opponents pick up 2.5 a game. Salford average 2.25 cards per game and their opponents attain 2.13. Hopefully, Salford’s ability to draw cards and Breakspear’s obsession with cards see the North Yorkshire’s side average go up.
Salford average over 5 corners per home game, so all the bets combine for a nice 11/1 long shot.
Best Bets
Harrogate Salford – Harrogate win- 2.4 Betfair- 0.5 units
Harrogate win, BTTS, both teams over 19.5 BP- over 3 Harrogate corners- 12.0 William hill- 0.5u.
Exeter vs Carlisle
The final game sees us travel from the North to the southwest.
Exeter is lying in 3rd, 2 points off the top. Matt Taylor’s side is 19 unbeaten and has won 4 on the trot in the league. Star attackers Sam Nombe and Matt Jay are on 16 league goals between them and will be key if the Grecians are to beat the Cumbrians.
New manager Keith Millen has steadied the ship, with Carlisle keeping 3 clean sheets in the last 3. Granted it was against non-league Horsham, Morecambe in the Papa John’s Trophy and Barrow at home, but progress is progress. However, they have struggled massively this season, only winning twice in the league. One of these was an opening day win against an unprepared Swindon.
If Exeter plays to their strengths, the 3 points should be staying in the south.
Best Bet
Exeter vs Carlisle- Exeter to win- 1.80- William hill 1u
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