Thursdays without Europa League just ain’t worth seeing through, someone (probably) said, and while we don’t think that’s necessarily true, it’s interesting to ponder the scenarios for qualification ahead of the penultimate round. Since we’re seeing the first season where Europa League and Conference League are played simultaneously, we’ve seen a Europa League contested more tightly than before and there’s currently a single side in the groups absolutely guaranteed to proceed to the knockout stages (Lyon – West Ham and Frankfurt close). Similarly to the Champions League, third placed EL group sides are set to enter Conference League knockouts but it’ll be a hard point to sell the teams to settle for that – if not only for the lower price money. We’ll be taking a look at a few matches who catch our eyes for bookings.
Rangers – Sparta Prague
Ibrox, 20:00 GMT
Referee – Danny Desmond Makkelie (Netherlands)
Rangers have been hot for cards, both continentally and domestically. After the long wait for a domestic league glory, they exited the Champions League preliminary rounds rather swiftly against Malmö, and they’ve played eight matches in Europe this season. Over the course of their European adventures, Rangers have picked 22 cards (20y, 2r) while their opponents have seen 20 (18y, 2r). All preliminary Rangers matches have seen both sides picking up two or more cards, but it’s happened in only two of four group stage matches. Rangers themselves have picked two or more cards three times and their opponents have been carded two or more times twice in total (therefore, only in the matches we’ve seen both teams carded at least twice). Sparta Prague carding patterns over the season – domestically and continentally – have mostly been of the against variant, and in Europe, Sparta has seen 16 cards while opponents have picked 24 cards, thereof two reds. Similarly to their Glaswegian hosts, Sparta failed to qualify for the Champions League Group Stage, and it’s interesting to note that they play perfectly to their cards for average, as they’ve seen exactly two cards in all matches. Both teams have seen two or more cards in six out of eight – once in the CL preliminaries and once in their Group matches – and their opponents have similarly been carded twice or more in all but two. Their reverse fixture saw both sides pick two or more and Rangers got Glen Kamara sent off as an added bonus.
The biggest reason why bookings here are a selected favorite (aside from team statistics) is the fact that both sides need a win to qualify. Sparta sit second in the group by virtue of head-to-head vs. Rangers but both sides have four points. We’ll see new Rangers manager Giovanni van Bronchorst for the first time at the wheel as well, and inching closer of a qualifying spot would be nothing short of a great first managerial impression for the Ibrox legend. Predicting their lineup might therefore prove somewhat difficult but Filip Helander is out for them, so we might not see him chopping and changing much. Sparta are missing Ondrej Celustka, David Moberg-Karlsson and Tomas Wiesner for this one.
Our referee is the Dutch Danny Makkelie, who can be accused of being a tad inconsistent, but he can deliver when the stakes are high. He’s taken charge of five continental encounters this competitive season where 20 yellows have been dished. Twice we’ve seen Makkelie give 2+ each teams and twice we’ve seen four or more cards for the teams.
Monaco – Real Sociedad
Stade Louis II, 20:00 GMT
Referee – Ivan Kruzliak (Slovakia)
Monaco has been somewhat inconsistent in cards in their continental campaign this season, and their card split stands at 13 for and 16 against. Their preliminary stages (both in CL and EL) took the majority of those cards, with the split singled out over that stage at 7 for and 6 against. While Sociedad managed to secure direct Group Stage qualification, their carding record is better than – an even 11 for and against in four encounters. Monaco have an unsurprisingly weak record in terms of 2+ cards each team, as that has never hit in their Group Stage matches. Sociedad have seen 2+ each hit twice, and they themselves have seen 2+ in three out of four. So, bookings are implied to swing in the favor of Sociedad taking the brunt of them here.
As the match kicks off, Monaco are first in the group with 8 points while Sociedad will rue their three draws, sitting second with 6 points. Third placed PSV Eindhoven have 5 points and should Sociedad lose this one, PSV might snatch their spot. Monaco have a better head-to-head record to PSV so they’re not immediately under threat and the hosts can do with a draw.
Ivan Kruzliak is a busy carder by his records, and in his eleven appearances this season there’s been 55 cards shown. Singling his European appearances out there, he revels in the big stage, and of those 55, 24 (22y, 2r) have been given to various continental teams, and it was only the preliminary encounter between HJK and Fenerbahce saw a 2-1 split in cards, otherwise it’s a “2+ each and then some” feast of bookings!
Leicester – Legia
King Power Stadium, 20:00 GMT
Referee – Deniz Aytekin (Germany)
Napoli and Spartak Moscow kickstarted this round early and what was a shock to most punters, Spartak Moscow won the leg, blowing this group wide open. As the scenario was before the upset at Otkrytie Arena, Legia could have settled for a draw, but now it’s a must win for both – Napoli and Spartak both have 7 points in the first two places, while Legia and Leicester have 6 and 5, respectively. Leicester has seen 2+ cards in three out of four matches while opponents have always seen more than one card. Legia has had a longer season in Europe, with 12 matches in CL and EL played, 31/30 card split. However, their carding seems to have halted a bit in their Group voyage and while they’ve seen the good old 2+ each hit seven times in total, they’ve only seen it twice during Group matches. Legia themselves have seen 2+ I’m three of four and their opponents 2+ in three of four as well. In their reverse fixture, 2+ each hit, as it ended 4-2 on cards in “favor” of Legia.
Perhaps somewhat of bad news, Deniz Aytekin takes charge of this affair. A rather low-carding referee, 55 (51y, 1r) over the season (15 matches), he’s been calm since the European Group Stages started after showing a decent promise to card bettors over the preliminary rounds. Of his 14 cards in continental competition, only four have been shown over two matches in the group stages.
Olympiakos – Fenerbahce
Karaiskaki Stadium, 17:45 GMT
Referee – Antonio Mateu Lahoz (Spain)
The hosts come into this one with a worse disciplinary standings and the Athenian team has seen a 24/25 card split in their 10 appearances over their stints in CL and EL this season. Of their 10 fixtures, there’s been a 70% occurrence of 2+ cards for both teams while it’s 75% in their Group Stage appearances. They themselves have seen two or more cards in all but one and their opponents have seen two or more cards in all Olympiakos matches during the Group Stage. Fenerbahce have been relatively calm compared to their Hellenic hosts – entering Europa League in the Playoff finals and having played six matches in total, their card split stands at 12/11. Relative to these numbers it’s unsurprising to see a low occurrence of 2+ – only twice, both times in the group stages. However, they’ve gotten two or more cards in all group stage appearances while opponents have hit that twice.
Second (Olympiakos) and third (Fenerbahce) in the group with only a point between them, a victory for the hosts would confirm their place in the Europa League knockouts. It probably goes without saying that the Anatolian visitors do need a win as well. A draw does little.
In charge of this potential powder-keg is Antonio Mateu Lahoz, a referee many card sharks hate to love. Having a reputation as a high-carding nitpicker, he’s been ice cold relative to last season. Having given 38 cards in 11 matches this season he’s given 12 in 4 European matches, all in the Champions League. Everyone wants to see Lahoz angry about working on a Thursday – we’re surely owed an explosive match in Athens?!
Group E
Galatasaray vs. Marseille
Nef Stadyumu, 17:45 GMT
Referee – Tobias Stieler (Germany)
Lokomotiv Moscow vs. Lazio
RZD Arena, 17:45 GMT
Referee – Artur Soares Dias (Portugal)
Every team in this group still has a chance of blowing their chances of qualifying but for group leaders Galatasaray, it’s a longshot. Similarly, for bottom placed Lokomotiv Moscow, qualifying for the Knockout stages of Europa League might be a longshot. But, if there’s a possibility of it happening, they’ll do the utmost of making it happen. Let’s start with a look of how the group stands at the moment:
Galatasaray 1st placed, 8 points. Yet to play Marseille (H), Lazio (A)
Lazio 2nd placed, 5 points. Yet to play Lokomotiv (A), Galatasaray (H)
Marseille 3rd placed, 4 points. Yet to play Galatasaray (A), Lokomotiv (H)
Lokomotiv Moscow 4th placed, 2 points. Yet to play Lazio (H), Marseille (A)
Let’s not go into the insane complications we might possibly face here with X might happen here if Y happens here and so forth – instead we’ll take the (perhaps, bold) stance that all sides remain cautious and hope for the best in the other matches.
Breaking my promise in the prior paragraph somewhat, Galatasaray can do with a draw while Marseille can’t be happy with that. The hosts have amassed a perfect 25-25 split in terms of cards continentally this season across both CL and EL. In the group stage there’s been two occasions of 2+ each team landing, while they have seen two or more cards three times, and their opponents have hit the same benchmark equal number of times. Marseille has landed two or more cards in all matches this far, and their opponents have seen two or more cards in all but one encounter. The reverse fixture between those two saw 2+ each (Marseille 2 and Galatasaray 3).
Officiating this fiery affair in Istanbul is Tobias Stieler. In 12 matches this season, the German referee has given 53 cards (49y, 4r) and his continental record is quite decent in terms of total bookings given. He’s given three of his four red cards across those competitions and 23 cards in total during his officiating duties. 2+ has hit in three of those, with only West Ham managing to escape this furor teutonicus as they saw a single card against Rapid Vienna.
Neither Lazio nor Lokomotiv can afford themselves a draw before the match kicks off, and for Lokomotiv, this is a matter of life and death (well, a matter of qualification or not) as they will stand even less of a chance of a backdoor Conference League qualification should they fail to receive the three points needed. Both sides qualified directly to the Group Stage of EL, so their number of matches is equal. Lokomotiv Moscow have a card split of 11/11 over the four matches, having seen three instances of 2+ each team, they themselves have avoided 2+ once while their opponents have always seen two or more per match. Lazio are tamer with a 9/9 card split and two instances of 2+ each hitting while they’ve seen two or more in three out of four – and their opposition has the same story to tell. Their reverse fixture saw a 2-2 split on cards between them.
Officiating duties will be performed by a fellow well known to TeamCBK followers, a Portuguese human resource manager named Artur Manuel Ribeiro Soares Dias. He’s been in charge of whistleblowing nine times this season and he’s given a total of 52 (49y, 3r) cards. He’s taken charge of three continental affairs, giving 14 (13y, 1r) cards but only once landing the infamous card bettors default of 2+ each.
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