Our very own IceTips is having a look at some angles of interest in the European competitions that make Thursday nights all the more exciting for us. It is the round of sixteen kicking off – again – and three matches are observed here with angles of interest.
Atalanta vs. Bayer Leverkusen
UEFA Europa League
Gewiss Stadium
Kick off: 20:00 GMT
There really does not need to be a lengthy write up on this one – both sides just scream goals at me and they can back it up very well. Across all competitions, the average Atalanta match sees 3.2 goals (1.91 for, 1.29 against from 35 appearances) and the average Leverkusen match sees 3.9 (2.48 for, 1.42 against). Shifting out the filters to home and away sees:
- Atalanta 3.2 (1.8/1.4)
- Leverkusen 3.65 (2.3/1.35)
So, this of course includes the data from all competitions. Looking at these two in Europe we found Atalanta probably bit off slightly more they could chew in the Champions League this season. However, their matches continentally have seen 3 or more goals in all but one (7 out of 8) and both teams have scored in all but two. Leverkusen were drawn into a pretty goal-heavy Europa League group alongside Betis, Celtic and Ferencvaros, emerging triumphant and scoring 14, conceding 5, seeing both teams scoring 4/6 and 3+ in 4/6 likewise.
Having observed both sides to a sizeable degree over the course of the season, taking a bet of three or more goals and both to score has proven to be relatively successful. The Bergamo side will be without Duvan Zapata but there’s a decent amount of firepower in replacement Muriel and not to mention massively motivated Ruslan Malinovsky. While Muriel has been more frequently featuring from the bench he still does not mind a shot or two, as does Malinovsky – scoring twice in Atalanta’s last match and taking five shots. Another notable absence is the opponents’ Patrik Schick but he’s still not as big of a key player in Europe as in Bundesliga. Both Florian Wirtz and Moussa Diaby are available here and the latter one, on his day, is absolutely vital – given he’ll start (very likely). Having taken 3, 5, 0, 4, 2 shots from his starts and scored three goals, looking to him to punish Atalanta on the break as they’re prone to defensive errors in quick transition.
Betting angles
Over 2.5 goals and both teams to score
Longshot – Ruslan Malinovskyi and Moussa Diaby both to have three shots
Bodø/Glimt vs. AZ
UEFA Conference League
Aspmyra Stadion, Bodø
Kick off: 20:00 GMT
The northernmost club remaining in UEFA competitions welcomes AZ from Alkmaar to the Conference League Round of 16 (Part 2, Electric Boogaloo) at Aspmyra tonight. There’s been rather smooth sailing for both in the Conference League’s maiden voyage as they’re two of four to venture unbeaten through their groups (the other being Feyenoord and Rennes) and it’s clear that either will have to end their unbeaten run following this tie.
What interests me about Bodø is the fact that their rise to the top in Norwegian football over the past couple of years hasn’t been without other big clubs taking interest in their talent. The seasons following their great 2019 one there’s been a certain overhaul in their squad but that hasn’t stopped them from remaining fierce competitors in Eliteserien – among the players who’ve caught the eye are Philip Zickernagel, Jens Petter Hauge and Hakon Evjen, who’ll return to Aspmyra in an AZ jersey. While Bodø aren’t playing regular football with Eliteserien being a summer league, AZ has a full schedule contesting for top three in Eredivisie as they’re sandwiched between Feyenoord and Twente in the fourth place. AZ is on a decently hectic schedule and this will be their fourth match in 11 days and in three days time they’ll play Twente in a rather weighty match in Eredivisie.
There’s a particular angle I’m very keen on observing here which are corners. Firstly, looking at last season’s form in Eliteserien, Bodø tend to seek out this particular set piece opportunity decently at home. The average match at Aspmyra saw 11.2 corners last season where Bodø accounted for 7.67 of those. There’s a slight decrease in form when it comes to them on the road in the same league, suggesting that their home field advantage played a decent part in their success with flag kick statistics. While Bodø hasn’t maintained the exact same statistics in ECL as in Eliteserien they’re still impressive (Team corner average at home is 5.38 and that still includes their disappointing home encounter vs. Legia Warsaw, 1 corner) and there’s a reasonable expectation to see a struggle from their opponents. AZ has been decent at keeping their opponents at bay when it comes to flags unless they’re facing opponents that can give them a match – Feyenoord, Vitesse, PSV etc. Their away corner statistics in Eredivisie suggest their comfort zone while facing big opponents is at home and while their dataset in Europe is sporadic (8, 3, 4, 0) the factor of traveling this far north isn’t to be underestimated – Celtic struggled vastly to get something from this match and wound up conceding eight corners against the home side. The same home advantage should fuel Bodø to seize their opportunities attacking-wise.
Betting angles
Bodø/Glimt over 4.5 team corners
Longshot – Bodø/Glimt to win and both teams to score
Braga vs. Monaco
UEFA Europa League
Estádio Municipal de Braga
Kick-off: 20:00 GMT
The visitors come into this tie as favorites as the marvelously picturesque Estádio Municipal de Braga is the setting of an exciting encounter between Braga and Monaco. This marks the the second time that Braga has played a French club in the knockout stages and they’re surely not hoping for history repeating itself as they lost against Marseille 3-1 on aggregate during the 2017/18 season and facing opponents hungry for something more than Foie Gras and Fabergé eggs will be a task although it’s hard to predict which way the first match will finish.
Braga are unbeaten at home in their Europa League campaign and their opponents in the Group Stage have all managed to score against them – only Sheriff didn’t manage to, and that reverse encounter was the first occasion of Braga not managing to bag a goal continentally. Monaco, over both the Group Stage and Champions League preliminary rounds have scored in all away matches whereas all their hosts have scored against them bar Sparta Prague in their first continental encounter.
Both sides have vast talents up front. For the Monegasque side, the pairing of Wissam Ben Yedder, Sofiane Diop and Kevin Volland has been quite fruitful as the trio has the vast majority of Monaco’s goal contributions (G+A) for the side, 39 of 68 in total. Ben Yedder is yet to grab a goal in Europa League this season but he’s had limited game time and there’s little doubt in my mind that Philippe Clement will want to utilize those three to maximize their chances. Despite frequent rotation in the Group Stage they still managed to finish top of group B with 12 points, unbeaten versus PSV, Real Sociedad and Sturm Graz.
Since the Group Stage ended Braga has lost a massive player as Wenderson Galeno was snapped up by Porto. Galeno scored 6 goals in 6 Group Stage matches for them, a 50% goals scored contribution! They however still have their star attacking midfielder Ricardo Horta available for action and I’m actually still amazed he hasn’t been poached sooner by the Portuguese Big Three as he’s been vital for them in recent years. In the comeback against Sheriff he was unplayable and was a key architect in his sides victorious emergence albeit after a penalty shootout – 1 goal, 1 assist, 88% pass accuracy from 83 touches and 59 passes.
Betting angles
Both teams to score
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