Last week saw the return of the best league in the world (outside of England.) Yes, the MLS is back, and I am dusting off my writing cobwebs to preview 2 games and supply some cheeky bets. So, strap in and enjoy me profoundly rambling on about my love for American ‘soccer.’
Goals in Georgia
The first game under the microscope comes from Atlanta, Georgia and I am expecting goals galore. Atlanta host Toronto in a mouthwatering clash for the neutrals- 0-0 incoming then!
Both sides were arguably involved in the tie of game week 1, with 2 Thiago Almada goals in stoppage time dragging Gonzalo Pineda’s side to a 2-1 victory over San Jose. Bob Bradley’s side were on the other end of late heartbreak, with 2 stoppage goals for DC United seeing Wayne Rooney’s side on the right end of a 3-2 victory.
With both games seeing a flurry of goals, it continued a familiar theme from last season. Atlanta games averaged 3 goals per game (3.2 at home,) with Toronto games averaging 3.38 per game (3.2 away.) Both teams also boast a plethora of attacking talent, with Luiz Araujo, Thiago Almada & Derrick Ettiene plying their trade in Georgia. Prolific Greek striker Georgios Giakoumakis is unable to play after failing to secure a US Visa after his move from Celtic. Toronto possesses real firepower, with Italian duo Federico Bernardeschi & Lorenzo Insigne lining up either side of Adama Diomande, who returns to the MLS 3 years after a very fruitful spell at LAFC.
Since moving to Canada, Insigne has 6 goals in 12 starts, with Bernardeschi scoring 9 in 14. The experienced Norwegian Diomande scored 20 in 30 starts for LAFC, so Bradley is certainly not short of goals in attack. Toronto invested in their leaky defence, but the new-look back 5 looked shaky against DC. Raoul Petretta was signed from Faith Kasimpasa (the side with the second worst defensive record in Turkey). Sigurd Rosted was signed after struggling for game time at Brøndby. Yellow card magnet Richie Laryea is perhaps stronger going forward than defensively. The signings of experienced MLS stalwarts Matt Hedges & Sean Johnson will hopefully arrest Toronto’s defensive issues eventually, but a new backline needs time to gel.
If you haven’t got the gist of it yet- I expect goals. Now, Denise isn’t stupid. The crafty devil has set the goal-line at 3.0 3.5. However, I see value in a couple of other selections.
Goals at both ends?
Every man and his dog are expecting goals. With both teams potent in attack and generous in defence, it would be ludicrous to expect any different. Based on this and the opening games, I am backing BTTS & O2.5 goals @ 1.80 with Bet 365.
Brace for Bernardeschi?
The next bet involves a goal & money-making machine. Bernardeschi is in inspired form since swapping Turin for Toronto. He was on the scoresheet last week from the penalty spot and I am backing him to repeat this. However, I am going to be extra cheeky and back him for the brace too. Not cheeky enough you say? Fine, I will also back a Bernardeschi goal and card. The hot-headed Italian has 6 yellows in his 13 MLS starts.
Atlanta United vs. Toronto FC Bets
Both Teams To Score & Over 2.5 goals – 1.8 @ Bet 365
Bernardeschi goal – 3.75 @ Paddy Power
Bernardeschi brace – 20.0 @ Sky Bet
Bernardeschi goal & card- 11.0 @ Bet 365
Awesome Austin
The second and final game I am previewing comes from Austin, Texas as Austin FC host Montreal Impact. Last season’s Western Conference 2nd top scorers and MLS Cup semi-finalists Austin suffered a shock 3-2 defeat at home to newcomers St Louis in the season opener. Montreal suffered similar fate, succumbing to a 2-0 defeat at Inter Miami.
Austin were an entertaining watch last season. Josh Wolff’s side scored 65 goals in 34 regular season games, with 42 of these coming in 17 home games. They also scored 2+ in both home games in the offseason playoffs. A key reason for this is the prolific Sebastian Driussi, who notched an impressive 22 goals in 32 starts. He followed this up with a goal in the season opener v St Louis. Supplying him will be Uruguayan Diego Fagundez who provided 12 assists and 6 goals in 32 starts last season, before recording an assist last week v St Louis. The South American duo will be imperative to Austin’s chances v Montreal. The added goals of wily campaigner Gyasi Zardes is also a big bonus.
Last season’s MLS Cup quarterfinalists Montreal started this campaign in disappointing fashion, losing 2-0 to Inter Miami. Miami were coincidentally Montreal’s final regular-season game last campaign, with Montreal winning 3-1. These two results show the contrast in the Impact’s squad from last season to this. Not only has manager Wilfried Nancy left for Columbus Crew, Djordje Mihailvoic, Ismael Kone & Alistair Johnson have secured big moves away.
Whilst Montreal were the best Eastern team on their travels last year with 35 points from 17, they also conceded 29 goals- the most in the top half. This meant they were heavily reliant on their attack, with their away games often high scoring affairs (3.6 PG).
Goals at both ends of the pitch (again!)
Very inventive again I know- but I can’t see there not being goals. With Montreal away games averaging 3.6 goals last season (33 scored, 29 conceded) and Austin home games averaging 3.8 (42 scored and 23 conceded), both sides certainly aren’t shy of a goal of 2.
Austin at the double?
If this game does indeed see BTTS & o2.5, I expect Austin to contribute at least 2. Why you might ask? Well, Josh Wolff’s side boasts a reyt good attack, with his Texans scoring 2+ in 14 of their last 20 home games, including the season opener. With Montreal looking leaky in GW1, I expect Driussi & Co to feast.
Dirty Driussi?
My Driussi obsession knows no bounds. The Argentinian was in fine fettle last campaign, with 22 goals in 32 starts. He also picked up 7 cards in this time, so he is no stranger to the referee’s notebook. Denise is feeling generous and offering odds of 10 for a goal/card double.
Austin FC vs. CF Montreal bets
Both teams to score & over 2.5 goals – 1.95 @ Bet 365
Austin to score 2+ goals – 1.83 @ Bet 365
Driussi goal & card – 10.00 @ Bet 365
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