It‘s the Inzaghi brothers showdown as Lazio (Simone) heads down south to visit Benevento (Filippo). While in no way overperforming, the Serie B champions have done alright for themselves whilst ultimately lacking the extra edge to finish their games and find themselves currently 15th in Serie A. Lazio, however, can be accused of complacency and underperforming. Having had a realistic shot at the scudettolast season before, well, 2020 happened and they lacked edge and finished fourth place which secured their place in the Champions League for the first time in 12 years. Whilst Lazio managed to secure qualification from their CL group, their Serie A performance has been flat and they currently sit 9th in the league, albeit not far off the top spots. They can also find themselves in a similar spot as their opponents today should they fail to collect in the next three games before winter break – next two opponents Napoli and AC Milan.
An interesting element to a match like this can also be evident in the fact that those two sides are the highest carded teams in Serie A this season – Lazio has collected 34 yellow cards and Benevento 32, both have one red card to their name. In terms of averages, we can see that:● Benevento have a 2.91 per game average – 2.8 in home games● Lazio have a 3.09 per game average – and 2.4 in away games.
While we shouldn‘t completely go with averages at a face value, a closer look sees Benevento‘s 9 game long run of picking up more than a card per game whuch they have also done in every home game this season bar one. Lazio‘s matches have also seen over 1 card for them nine times out of 11 and home/away difference for them isn‘t significant foul wise. The cards aren‘t massively spread for either side either (meaning there‘s no statistical anomaly here such as a 12 card game to up the number). It‘s also worth noting that the amount fouls aren‘t necessarily the key factor for Benevento cards as they seem to take a quality over quantity approach to handling their opponets, whist Lazio is well on par with them in regards to fouls suffered, as well as fouls for. Referee Luca Pairetto is in charge and while he‘s only refereeing his second game of the season today, he‘s not one to shy away from carding with the 5 card average he racked up last season (and considering fouls per card, not necessarily the most patient one either).
The second factor of this Bet Builder are the corners. While observing predictions based on intensity, analysis and performance factors by both teams, the result should be +4.5 corners in the second half. While lacking the necessary set of cojones to perhaps take a bold step like that, I‘m in no doubt of +2.5 per the second half, and for a good reason. Again, let‘s see their averages: ● Benevento has 10.3 corner per game average with 5.5 on the average in the second half● Lazio has 9.3 corner average and sees 5.3 on average in the second half.
How the dataset is can be seen here (Second half corners first, total corners in brackets)● Benevento: 6(11) – 5(9) – 5(13) – 7(8) – 6(6) – 3(9) – 9(18) – 4(10) – 8(14) – 4(6) – 4(10)● Lazio: 7(8) – 5(7) – 2(8) – 6(8) – 3(6) – 4(8) – 9(17) – 4(7) – 7(15) – 7(10) – 5(9)
Benevento should be packing defensively as their performance indicators and preferred action zones have been throughout the season. Rarely making their impact clear in the final third, they love a good defense-to-midfield game and Schiattarella, Improta and Ionita will be ready to get all stuck in on the fiery Lazio side today. Wouldn‘t be surprised to see Ionita booked today.
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