We thought we could give some extra focus to the English championship and this Wednesday’s early Sky TV game as the table topping Canaries welcome the Robins to Carrow Road with the home side aiming to extend their lead over second placed Swansea to an impressive seven points.
For a side doing so well and widely regarded as the best side in the division it is remarkable to note that of Norwich’s 15 victories this season only two have been by more than a single goal – one of which coming in the reverse fixture which was also live on Sky.
Teemu Pukki netted a brace that day and after Jack Hunt reduced the arrears £40m rated Arsenal target Emi Buendia scored on the stroke of half time to restore the two-goal lead which stayed intact thanks in no small part to Nahki Wells’ awful 75th minute penalty miss.
Daniel Farke’s side has gone about looking to bounce straight back to the Premier League after last season’s miserable relegation by dominating the ball and grinding sides down, utilising an enviable array of creative attacking talent at this level.
This is illustrated by the fact they also top the Championship in possession stats with an average 57.9% of the ball (60.6% at home), have the highest pass completion rate with 82.3% (83.7% at home), the most key passes per game with an average of 12.4 (13.9 at home) and tellingly the greatest number of shots in the division with a total of 219 some 45 more than the next highest total – with an average of 16.3 shots per game which rises to 18.3 when playing at home.
Team CBK VIP members were advised early Tuesday morning to take advantage of a very generous opening line from Paddy Power which saw the firm offer odds of 1.80 for Norwich to have 16 or more shots – something they have achieved in eight of their last nine league fixtures – and in eight of their last 10 at home.
This bet is made even more solid by the fact opponents Bristol City have the second highest average for shots conceded per game with 13.8 which increases to 15.3 when on their travels, only Wycombe have a higher average and they shipped 25 shots when visiting Carrow Road in October. This was going to be a big 4 Unit play but I couldn’t resist using a unit to play the highest line of 22 or more shots at odds of 11.0 – a line Norwich have covered four times in their last 10 home league games.
Most of the Canaries home games have followed a similar theme with visitors looking to frustrate, sit deep with a low block and challenge the hosts to try and pass their way through a packed defence, with attacks being on the counter.
Robins boss Dean Holden however, although admitting his side will have to hit top gear to take any points home with them, has said his side go in to a game they are looking forward to, full of confidence with the belief they can indeed get something from.
That 3-1 home defeat will, I’m sure, be fresh in his memory and he will want no repeat of the first half generosity his side offered in that game, also stating a necessity to cut off the supply line in to his sides defensive third of the pitch.
With seven of Norwich’s 12 home games so far producing a goalless opening 45 minutes I really like odds of 4.5 that this game is level at half time with Norwich going on to win as has been the case in five of those 12 fixtures.
As for player bets – again VIP members picked up nice 2.0 odds on Todd Cantwell having at least one shot on target as he has done in each of his last two league outings – current odds of 1.80 are a little short for me now so I will try and highlight some other areas of attack for you.
Aforementioned Eleven goal top scorer Pukki is sidelined for this one so Summer signing Jordan Hugill who found the net 13 times whilst on loan at QPR last season, will get another chance to impress, as he did in the weekend victory at Cardiff.
A completely different player to the Finnish international, Hugill will act as a target man focal point allowing others to feed off him with the likely trio of Cantwell, Buendia, and Mario Vrancic operating just behind the main striker, but with all those players odds on for a shot on target, I am looking deeper on the pitch for some value.
Another summer signing, Jakob Lungi Sorensen has impressed since making the move from Esbjerg but not in his usual central midfield position – instead, following the sale of Jemal Lewis to Newcastle, the continued absence of Sam Byrum and injury to on loan Villarreal defender Xavi Quintilla the 22-year-old has been deployed as an emergency left back.
After 17 consecutive appearances and understandably taking time to settle into a foreign position, the Denmark U21 international has received plaudits for the way he has steadily improved and been a vital part of his side’s consistent good form.
Being predominantly right-footed, you won’t see Sorensen race to the byline instead preferring to check inside, often passing to a more creative teammate but also finding himself in good shooting positions with 12 attempts at goal to his name, seven of which being on target with all bar one coming in the last nine games illustrating further his adapting to his new role.
Sorensen definitely brings his shooting boots to home games, scoring once but having had a shot on target in each of the last five at Carrow Road and although I was hoping for slightly better odds the 2.10 on offer from Paddy Power still looks decent enough given the stats.
| Player | Played (+sub) | Mins | Goals | xG | xG Per Avg Match | Shots | On Target | Shots Per Avg Match | On Target Per Avg Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teemu Pukki | 19 (2) | 1839 | 11 | 9.21 | 0.47 | 64 | 26 | 3.3 | 1.34 |
| Emi | 20 (0) | 1830 | 7 | 5.96 | 0.3 | 61 | 21 | 3.16 | 1.09 |
| Mario Vrancic | 9 (10) | 1022 | 3 | 2.98 | 0.27 | 37 | 9 | 3.43 | 0.83 |
| Todd Cantwell | 10 (3) | 965 | 2 | 1.91 | 0.18 | 23 | 7 | 2.26 | 0.68 |
| Adam Idah | 1 (6) | 286 | 1 | 1.14 | 0.37 | 10 | 6 | 3.32 | 1.99 |
| Grant Hanley | 20 (0) | 1938 | 1 | 1.53 | 0.07 | 16 | 3 | 0.78 | 0.14 |
| Jacob Lungi Sørensen | 17 (0) | 1576 | 1 | 0.73 | 0.04 | 12 | 6 | 0.72 | 0.36 |
| Jordan Hugill | 5 (12) | 527 | 1 | 2.39 | 0.43 | 18 | 8 | 3.24 | 1.44 |
| Josh Martin | 6 (3) | 486 | 1 | 1.71 | 0.33 | 11 | 3 | 2.15 | 0.58 |
If he hadn’t scored at the weekend, I would have put skipper Grant Hanley forward for either a shot on target or to score as it was only a matter of time he converted one of the chances that were coming his way. However, Norwich had taken 250 corners since their last goal from that source so if you are a believer that having waited an age for a bus you know another will come straight away you can get odds of 4.2 for another Hanley shot on target, 16/1 for another goal and 35/1 he is responsible for breaking the deadlock once again.
Instead, I am going to suggest a player who is arguably playing his best football for the club as he, like Hanley, looks to secure his place in the Scotland Euro Championships squad – Kenny McLean.
Similar to Hanley, the 29-year-old former Aberdeen midfielder has been seeing plenty of chances come his way since forcing his way back in to the starting eleven six games ago, firing off seven attempts at goal but unbelievably with none on target.
Playing in a double pivot he finds himself alongside Spurs loanee Oliver Skipp who this week has been described as a centre back’s dream mainly for doing the ugly side of the game and shielding his last line of defence, however this also allows Mclean license to support the attack as shown by those attempts at goal with at least one coming in five of the last six league games.
As I mentioned there have been none on target, but the Scot did find the net in the recent FA Cup win over Coventry so with odds of 3.50 for him to at least test the keeper which is well overdue I will put that forward as another selection.
Finally, Norwich have won five of their last nine league games 2-1 and although influential shot stopper Tim Krul is likely to be back in goal after recovering from COVID and hasn’t let a goal in in 475 minutes which is the longest run without conceding by a Canaries keeper since October 1986, the last three games between these two sides have seen both teams score and over 2.5 goals – its 8.5 for another 2-1 Norwich win here.
Suggested Bets:
Norwich to have 16 or more shots (1.8 Paddy Power)
Norwich to have 22 or more shots (11.0 Paddy Power)
Draw/Norwich Half Time/Full Time (4.5 Bet Victor)
Todd Cantwell to have 1 or more shots on target (2.0 Paddy Power)
Jakob Lungi Sorensen to have 1 or more shots on target (2.10 Sky Bet)
Kenny McLean to have 1 or more shots on target (3.5 Paddy Power)
Norwich to win 2-1 (8.5 Bet Victor)
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