Two teams who are on a major high having reached the champions league semi finals meet for a place in the FA cup final as Chelsea take on Man City. It is safe to say Thomas Tuchel has come into the hot seat at Stamford bridge and done a decent job. Since the start of his tenure, Chelsea has now lost just twice out of their last 18 games (1 in the second leg against Porto and the other when they had a man sent off against West Brom).
It was a workman like performance for Chelsea against Porto and although losing, they always looked the likely winner of the tie.
Manchester City came from behind against Borussia Dortmund in the week to progress to champions league semi finals and are now a 5/4 shout to win that competition.
Manchester City is still on the hunt to achieve the quadruple in what has been a stellar season. Pep Guardiola’s men have now lost just 4 games all season, but this could prove to be his side’s biggest test yet against Chelsea under Tuchel.
The Betting Angles:
In the outright market Man City are 4/5 with the draw at 5/2 and Chelsea at 17/2.
Man city’s record against the so-called “big six” (Liverpool, Man City, Man Utd, Spurs, Arsenal, and Chelsea) has seen them win only 5 of 9 in the league (drawing twice and losing the other 2).
With Chelsea having only lost 2 of their last 18 games and City’s record against the “top 6” I do not believe City should be as short as 4/5 and are worth opposing.
For my money, the draw looks the most likely outcome in a tense affair at Wembley with two teams who may lack some intensity having played midweek.
If you take out the result against West Brom during Tuchel’s spell, Chelsea have only conceded 4 times in 18 games and under 2.5 goals has been successful in 15 of those games.
Best priced with Uni bet, if you take under 2.5 goals and Chelsea double chance you can get odds of 41/20 and that looks well worth getting involved with.
Antonio Rudiger to rack up the tackles:
In the player props market one angle I am keen to get involved with is Antonio Rudiger tackles. Rudiger has been deployed on the left-hand side of a back three since Tuchel has taken charge and his number of tackles has increased as a result.
Rudiger has now achieved at least two tackles in 7 of his last 9 league games and hit 3 tackles in three of those games. When we take into consideration that Manchester City’s opponents average the 3rd highest number of tackles against (the amount of tackles each team has against Man City) out of the premier league clubs, it is an angle to get on side.
Priced at 11/8 for two tackles with Sky bet it is worth considering but it may be worth taking slightly shorter odds with William Hill at 11/10 as if he does not start the bet get’s void. Sky Bet also offer 4/1 for 3 tackles and Hills at 10/3 for the same number which is worth considering.
Longshot
As previously written, I do like the idea of a draw which therefore brings about extra time and penalties.
Given that both teams played midweek the game could lose some of its intensity as time moves on and both teams may settle for a shootout. The last time these two teams played in the cup was the 2018/2019 league cup final which saw City win on penalties.
Either team to win on penalties is priced at 7/1 with Sky Bet and considering the way I expect the game to go, looks a nice price to get involved with.
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