Live on Sky Sports, we are treated to a historic rivalry where Leeds host Manchester United on Super Sunday. The Reds have a European semi-final to look forward to in the week but for now, it’s Premier League action where they will look to continue their impressive away form.
Leeds head into this game currently sat 10th in the League and their current form suggests a top half finish is more than achievable on their return season to the top flight. Unbeaten in their last 5 games including inspiring performances vs Liverpool and Man City, Leeds are definitely in the right shape to avoid a 6-2 mauling that Man United inflicted on them in the reverse. However, Man United won’t be an easy ride; The away side are unbeaten in 12 League games and haven’t lost an away game since January 2020, a run stretching back a whopping total of 23 games.
The Betting Angles
Two sides bang in form I think we can expect goals and with both sides sitting in comfortable league positions this leans me towards my first angle. Using Bet 365’s bet-builder, BTTS and over 0 Leeds cards Is a 20/21 shot and I’m happy to make this my NAP for this fixture.
BTTS is as short as 4/9, but chucking in a single card for the home team boosts this to an appealing 20/21. The Red Devils pose the highest percentage in the league for BTTS, 59% of their games this campaign has seen it cop. On the other hand, Leeds aren’t scared to take the game to the big boys and on their current form, I fancy them to notch again here. Their frantic style of play does tend to leave space for the opposition if you can beat the press and with the quality Man United possesses, they should manage a goal here in what I see as an end-to-end game.
Craig Pawson at the whistle here so cards are undoubtedly on the agenda. With this being a derby, you would expect Leeds to pick up at least 1 yellow. They have picked up a card (or more) in all of their last 8 fixtures, so another here is ideal for this bet. This same bet is 4/6 with William Hill, so a nice edge with Bet 365.
One player prop bet I have a keen eye on will come as no Suprise. Betfair have Harry Maguire @4/1 for a headed shot on target, under player shot on target specials, and I think this is a great price.
By now I’m sure most are aware of Leeds defensive frailties this season when defending set-pieces. They’ve conceded a league high of 15 goals from set plays this campaign so there is value to be had using this data.
Harry Maguire is averaging a shot per game in the Premier League this season and will be the main threat for Man United here vs Leeds. He managed 3 headed shots in the reverse fixture with one on target so considering he is 2/1 for a shot on target, the 4/1 on show for it to be with his head does appeal. 82% of Maguire’s shots this season have come with his head so a nice bumper price worth taking, Sky Bet is offering 2 headed shots on target for Mags at a massive 40/1 if you’re after a teasing longshot.
Best Bets from @TipsterJ
BTTS and over 0 Leeds cards @20/21 – 2 Pts
Harry Maguire headed shot on target @4/1 – 0.5pts
Additional Bets from @TeamCBK – Man United Over 14.5 Team Tackles @ 2.00 with Bet365, Aaron WB Over 34.5 Passes @ 1.83 with Bet365
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