Tuesday night sees the return of the Premier League where Chelsea welcomes Leicester to Stamford Bridge. Leicester beat Chelsea 1-0 on Saturday thanks to a wonder strike from Youri Tielemans, to secure the club’s first-ever FA Cup. A quick turnaround for both sides in a game that has a major impact on who will be playing in next season’s Champions League.
Chelsea would’ve had 1 foot in next season’s Champions League already but a shock 1-0 defeat at home to Arsenal in their last league outing has chucked them right back in the mix. With Liverpool hot on both side’s tails, you do feel the loser of this match would be right up against it heading into the final game of the season.
Chelsea has a fully fit squad at their disposal, with Mateo Kovacic set to return but may only be ready for the bench. Brendan Rodgers is without Johnny Evans as he came off injured on the weekend and will still be without long-term injured duo Harvey Barnes and James Justin.
As for the betting angles, my main play for this game is going to be under 2.5 goals @4/5 which is available best priced with Betfair. Tuchel has undoubtedly improved this Chelsea side since his takeover but goals have dried up as of late as they seem to lack any real creativity from the center of the park.
However, there is no questioning the defensive capabilities of this Chelsea side under Tuchel. In his 27 matches in charge, they have only shipped 13 goals against. Under 2.5 goals has landed in 8 out of Chelsea’s last 9 home games and I fancy it to cop again. You would also expect the fatigue of both sides to play a part here with such a fast turnaround in games.
Not only does the data suggest a low-scoring affair, but with so much on the line, I don’t see either team giving anything away early doors. This leads me to my second play of the game, something for the braver punters – HT result to be 0-0 @7/4 – Sky Bet. This bet landed on the weekend vs Leicester and if the game pans out as expected I feel it has every chance of landing again. It took until the second half for there to even be a shot on target in this fixture a few days ago, so more of the same would be ideal for the 0-0 HT correct score.
One prop play for this game that may come as a surprise but is worth a tickle – PokerStars have Rudiger to have a shot from outside the box priced at 21/10. Surprisingly, this bet has landed in all of Rudiger’s last 3 games. The German Center-back is often the one to step out of the back 3 and finds himself winning possession in a more midfield-like role. I expect Chelsea to dominate the ball here and try and break down a Leicester low block which can result in shots from range as they become frustrated. Rudiger managed 2 shots from outside the box vs Leicester in the FA cup final on Saturday, so I am hoping for him to have at least one here.
Remember, this does not have to be on target. I have requested the on target from outside the box with Sky but they are yet to be priced up at the time of me writing this piece. For context, he’s managed 2 on target from outside the box in his last 8 league games so depending on the price this could be another way in.
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