With both sides on 1 point apiece, Scotland’s final group D game against Croatia is the definition of ‘must win’. A draw knocks both teams out, whereas a win is more than likely going to be enough to secure qualification to the round of 16 as one of the best placed third teams. In front of the passionate Tartan Army at Hampden Park, Scotland will be looking to qualify for the knockout stages of a major tournament for the first time. Croatia will hope to put disappointing form behind them and attempt to replicate their famous run to the 2018 World Cup final. A truly mouth-watering tie is on the cards.
After a fantastic 0-0 draw against England at Wembley, Scotland will be full of confidence going into this crunch home tie against a dysfunctional Croatia. Despite not scoring a goal thus far, Scotland have actually had more shots than their opponents in both games, recording 19 shots to Czech’s 10 in the opener, and 11 shots to England’s 9. In both games combined, Scotland have recorded an XG of 3.30 (according to Xg philosophy). This total is higher than teams such as France, Croatia, England and Poland. Striker Lyndon Dykes has had as many shots on targets (3) as England have after two games. Clarke has favoured a 3-5-2 formation thus far, with Dykes and Adams leading the line against England. Chelsea youngster Billy Gilmour picked up the man of the match award last time out, but he is unfortunately having to self isolate, having tested positive for COVID. McTominay will likely move forward to replace him, with Leeds Liam Cooper slotting into the back 3.
Likely Scottish starting XI:
Marshall; O’ Donnell, Cooper, Hanley, Tierney, Robertson; Mctominay, McGregor, Mctominay, Mcginn; Dykes, Adams
Ever since their famous run to the World Cup final in 2018, Croatia have failed to live up to the hype, with the Kockasti recording the worst competitive loss % of any teams in the Euros in the last 3 years. The Croats have failed to impress so far, looking flat against England, recording an XG of only 0.36, even with England sitting back for the last half an hour. This improved against Czech Republic (0.92), but Croatia still looked devoid of ideas. Zlatko Dalić still seems unsure on his best system and team, as he opted for a 4-3-3 against England, but switched to a 4-2-3-1 for the Czech Republic game. He has switched between these formations and even a 4-4-2 diamond on occasion pre tournament. It is rumoured he will revert back to a 4-3-3, with a midfield of Modrić, Kovacić and Brozović the envy of many a nation. Vlašić and Perišić are likely to be either side of 6’4 target man Petković.
Likely Croatian starting XI:
Livaković; Juranović, Vida, Lovren, Gvardiol; Kovacic, Modrić, Brozović; Vlašić, Perišić; Petković
Referee
Overseeing the tie at Hampden Park is Argentinian Referee Fernando Rapallini who is part of the referee exchange program between Uefa and Conmebol. In his career, Rapallini has refereed 259 games, showing 1,326 yellows and 55 reds cards, a crazy average of over 5 yellows a game and 0.2 reds. He oversaw Macedonia’s opening game against Ukraine- showing 3 cards. With both teams needing a win and a boisterous atmosphere likely, we could cards flying in Scotland.
Statistics
Croatia Last 10 Competitve Games
Fouls Per Game: 7 ,10, 11,12,15,15,12,9,14,15,
Cards Per Game: 1,3,2,3,5,3y1r,2,3,2,3,
Average Fouls Per Game: 12.1 fouls per game
Average Cards Per Game: 2.9 cards per game.
Scotland Last 10 competitive games
Fouls Per Game:14,6,9,15,14,11,16,15,9,19,
Cards Per Game: 2,0,1,1,4,2,3,1,2,4
Average Fouls Per Game: 12.8 fouls per game
Average Cards Per Game: 2 cards per game
Both teams average over 12 fouls and 2+ cards in their last 10 competitive games.
Summary:
With a card happy referee and two teams who rack up cards and fouls, cards should hopefully be on the agenda. Bet 365 are offering odds of 2/1 for over 1 card each team which is my main fancy. Due to the big occasion, both teams could lose their head so I will have a small play on both teams over 2 cards at 9/1. As alluded to earlier, Croatia are in poor form, so I fancy Scotland to win.Scotland are around 2/1 with most bookies to win. However, David Marshall may be one to look at for the bookings as he has been booked before for Scotland for time wasting and Rapallini will be quick to stamp his authority. Combining a Marshall card with a Scotland win gives odds of 46.75.
Away from cards, Vlasić might be in a front 3. In his last 5 non domestic starts- the CSKA Moscow forward averages 3.4 shots a game and has hit 4 shots on target in those games. With Scotland playing wing-backs, Vlasić may be able to find space in behind to fire shots at Marshall. Paddy power are offering evens for 1 shot on target and 6/1 for 2. Sky bet on the other hand are offering 1 shot on target at 1.30, 2 at 2.50 and 3 at 5.50, so Paddy’s lines offer some nice value. On the Scotland side of it, John Mcginn could be playing the more advanced of the 3 midfielders. The Aston Villa midfielder hit 4 shots against Czech Republic and 1 against England and whilst none were on target, he has scored 3 goals in Scotlands 3 World Cup qualifying games. Bet 365 offer odds of evens for him get a strike on target.
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