Ipswich vs Shrewsbury
Two struggling teams face off at Portman Road, as pre-season favourites Ipswich host 23rd place Shrewsbury.
After signing a whole new team (and more!), optimism was high amongst the tractor boy faithful. Players such as Sam Morsy, Conor Chaplin, Rekeem Harper and Tom Carroll- to name but a few- all dropped down a level to sign for Paul Cooks side. Other players such as Joe Piggot, Wes Burns, Scott Fraser and Lee Evans joined from other league 1 sides and this Ipswich side started to look formidable.. on paper. Now, we all know football isn’t played on paper as much as Ipswich would like it to be as they would be League 1 champions already. Paul Cook has failed to get his side to gel, chopping and changing the team and shape and struggling to get a tune out of any of his Suffolk galaticos. The form has picked up in recent weeks, with a 1-0 away win at Lincoln being followed by a 1-1 draw at home to Sheffield Wednesday. They then followed this up with an emphatic 6-0 demolition of lowly Doncaster and things seemed on the right track. That was until a 2-1 defeat to Accrington last time out. This provided a reality check for some of the Ipswich players, most notably Sam Morsy, whose arrogant and petulant comments after the game a key indicator on why Ipswich are struggling so much. However, as much as they have been struggling, there are teams worse off in the league than them.
Introducing… Shrewsbury Town. After an abysmal transfer window failing to address key issues in the side, Steve Cotterill has struggled to get his Salop side going and is starting to feel the pressure. This pressure building on him is evident, as the experienced manager has started firing shots at local journalists rather than accepting his own faults. With only 2 wins all season- both at home and coming from behind to win, Shrewsbury have struggled on the road, scoring 2 and only picking up 1 point. Only bottom place Doncaster have scored less than Salop, who lack a potent goal scorer. They have also struggled defensively, failing to keep a clean sheet in any of their 15 games in all competition. A club in disarray, travelling to a side who are slowly building momentum, I can only see this result going one way.
Best Bet: Ipswich to win- 1.85- William Hill
Plymouth vs Burton
Whilst Ipswich are the leagues surprise package in a negative way, home park perhaps plays host to a game featuring two teams exceeding expectations as 3rd place Plymouth welcome 9th placed Burton.
Last season, Plymouth were a joy to watch. Ryan Lowe had the Pilgrims playing exciting football and scoring goals for fun but also leaking goals for fun at the other end. After signing 5 defensive players over the summer, Lowe seemed to have tightened up the defence, although the last 4 games have seen Plymouth concede. In fact 4/6 of their home games (67%) has seen both teams score (BTTS). With a lethal strike force of Ryan Hardie and Luke Jephcott it is easy to see why Plymouth score so many goals. However, they are without Cooper and Mayor due to injury, and will also be without talisman Luke Jephcott and defender Brendon Galloway due to international duty. The experienced Kieran Agard and James Wilson are more than able deputy’s for the home side. If James Wilson is not fully recovered for Saturday, we could be seeing a makeshift Plymouth defence.
After completing a great escape last season, Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink and Dino Maamria would be delighted with the start to this season as the Brewers lie in 9th place. A fine summer in terms of recruitment and trust in the management team has seen a monumental shift in fortune for Burton who looked destined for league 2 football last season. In 11 games they have scored 10 and conceded 12, so they are solid but unspectacular at both ends of the pitch. However, 5 of their last 6 games in all competitions have seen BTTS. In the Brewers 14 games in all competitions, BTTS has landed in 9 of these. With a makeshift Plymouth defence and a potent Burton attack featuring the inform Daniel Jebbison, it is hard to ignore BTTS at Home Park. However, the odds of 1.7 on display is a bit skinny for my liking, so adding over 3 Plymouth corners boosts the odds to evens, with Plymouth averaging 6.33 corners per home game.
Best Bet: BTTS and over 3 Plymouth corners- Evens- Bet 365
Bristol Rovers vs Carlisle
Dropping down to League 2 and up the a38 to Bristol Rovers vs Carlisle.
After relegation to League 2, Joey Barton was certain his Gas side would gain promotion back to League 1 at the first time of asking. He also lambasted predecessor Ben Garner for his ‘mismanagement of the team’, only to lose 3-1 at home to his Swindon side. Barton’s recent interviews are those of a broken man, desperately trying to convince himself he is doing a good job, claiming “everybody raises their games against Bristol Rovers, as we have the highest wages in the league.” These quotes are sure to not only fire opposition up, but perhaps his own team, so expect a battling performance from both.
After a blistering start to last season, Carlisle faded away and finished outside the playoff spaces. This was mainly due to the build up of fixtures thanks to numerous COVID postponements. However, Chris Beech will be disappointed with his sides start to the season, with the Cumbrians in 19th place (one place above Bristol Rovers) and only 3 points clear of relegation.
Cards?
With all the aforementioned factors involved, this game has the ingredients to get tasty. Refereeing this affair is Charles Breakspear who has shown an average of 4.36 cards per game this season. Bristol Rovers average 1.9 cards per game, but are in fact the most fouled side in the league, with the Gas being fouled 14.9 times a game, leading to their opponents picking up and average of 2.4 cards per game. Interestingly, Carlisle are the side who commit the most fouls per game (13.5). Whilst they only average 1.7 cards per game, a strict referee and playing against a team who rakes in fouls, it would be a surprise if Carlisle don’t pick up more cards than they average. A William Hill bet builder of over 0.5 Bristol Rovers cards over 1.5 Carlisle cards and a +1 card handicap for Carlisle gives odds of evens. The card handicap means Carlisle must have the same amount of or more cards than Bristol Rovers for this leg to win.
Best Bet- Bristol Rovers over 0.5 cards, Carlisle over 1.5 cards, Carlisle +1 card handicap
Evens William Hill
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