Our very own EFL aficionado Matthew O’Regan is back with his regular pick of best bets across the English Football League spectrum – and this time we’re served a menu consisting of matches contested in Championship and League One
Millwall vs. Luton
The Den plays host to a mid table clash as 11th placed Millwall face 13th place Luton, with both teams hoping to push towards the playoff places.
After 11 games, Millwall have scored 11 and conceded 11- an average of exactly one goal scored and one goal conceded per game. Of these 11 games, 6 have been drawn- the most of any team in the league. Gary Rowett will be keen to get some more wins under the Lions belt, so a fast start against the Hatters is expected. Of Millwall’s 5 home games this season, 4 have seen BTTS, with last meeting against Bristol City the only exception. However, Bristol City created good chances and would’ve scored another day, with the XG around the 1.0 mark.
The visitors Luton Town are also draw specialists, drawing 5 of their 11 games. However, their games tend to feature more goals than Saturday’s hosts. The Hatters have scored 18 and conceded 16 thus far. Like the hosts, BTTS has landed in 4/5 of Luton’s away games, with the 1-0 away win at Barnsley the only exception. However, this was another game where the opposition were unlucky not to score. As well as BTTS landing in certain games, Luton aren’t shy of scoring, with the 5-0 win against Coventry a prime example of the fast paced attacking football that Nathan Jones has instilled at the club.
With BTTS landing in 80% of Millwall home games and 80% of Luton away games, it is an appealing game to back goals in.
Bet: Both teams to score – Paddy Power @ 1.87
Swansea vs. Cardiff
South Wales plays hosts to a fierce Welsh derby between Swansea and Cardiff.
Both teams have been underwhelming, with Swansea in 19th and Cardiff in 20th. However, Russell Martin is a long term appointment and will be bided time- McCarthy could be coming to the end of his tenure and will be desperate for a result. Last game against Reading saw the Bluebirds pick up 4 yellows. They have been in dismal form, losing 6 of their last 7 league games. This poor form has led to more yellow cards- perhaps in frustration/desperation- picking up an average of 2.28 yellows per game in this period.
Swansea only average 1.55 cards per game, but after a poor start to the season after last seasons playoff final defeat, Martin will be craving 3 points. These games are notoriously bad blooded with 14 yellow cards and 1 red brandished in the last 3 games.
James Linington is the whistleblower for this tie- he averages 4.71 cards a game. He has shown 5+ cards in 5/7 games this season.
Bet: Both teams over 19.5 booking points – William Hill @ 2.25
Cambridge vs. Ipswich
Moving onto League 1 now and an intriguing battle at the Abbey stadium between Cambridge and Ipswich.
After an unexpected promotion from League 2, Mark Bonner’s side have had a solid start to the season and sit in 16th. With 30 goals in 10 matches featuring the U’s (14 scored 16 conceded)- the hosts aren’t shy of goals at either end. They have also conceded 2+ in their last 3 league games. Cambridge’s attacking prowess is only gonna improve, with key man Wes Hoolahan expected back in the line up. Being a Norwich City legend- Ipswich’s rivals- he will be keen to make an impact. Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Cambridge games this season and with a free scoring Ipswich in town, I expect more goals.
After 20 summer signings for Paul Cook and Ipswich, a slow start was expected. However, in recent weeks their has been signs of improvement with only 1 defeat in 6 in all competitions. Once the Tractor Boys find some more consistency, they should shoot up the table. One thing that Ipswich has found consistency in is goals. Whether it be scoring or conceding goals- Ipswich are the go to side. With 21 goals scored and 19 conceded, their games average just shy of 4 a game. In fact, over 2.5 goals has landed in 9/11 games. Here’s hoping to 10/12!
Bet: Over 2.5 goals – Bet 365 @ 2.00
Bolton vs. Wigan
Rivals lock horn in Bolton as 9th place Bolton face off against 3rd place Wigan.
A study conducted by Paddy Power in February 2021 discovered that Wigan vs Bolton was the most competitive English Derby in terms of win split. I am expecting another tightly fought battle at the University of Bolton stadium. However, it is cards that intrigue me the most. Whilst Bolton only average 1.75 cards per game, teams pick up an average of 2.25 cards against the Trotters. With it being a rivalry game, Ian Evatt will be keen to ensure his side are up for the game in front of an expectant home crowd, which should hopefully push their card average up. Over the last 8 games, Bolton have accumulated 18 cards, an average of 2.25 a game.
Wigan come into this in fine form- in both the results table and card table. The Latics average 2.6 cards a game- the highest in the league. They are also in the top 3 for fouls per game. With players such as James McLean, Max Power and Tom Naylor all prone to bookings, Leam Richardson’s side should accumulate a few booking points.
The main aspect that drew me to the game was the referee. Charles Breakspear oversees this one, averaging 4.83 cards a game. In his last 6 games, he has shown 10, 8, 4, 5, 6 cards and 5+ a red card. The last h2h between the two sides saw 8 cards (5 for Wigan, 3 for Bolton), so these two have previous. With a card happy referee, a feisty crowd and teams who loves yellow cards, booking points are definitely on the agenda.
Bet: Both teams 20+BP SkyBet @ 2.00
Shrewsbury vs. MK Dons
The final game I am previewing comes from Shropshire as 23rd place Shrewsbury host promotion chasing Mk Dons.
The Shrews have been in abysmal form this season, picking up 8 points from their opening 12 games. They may be 23rd on 8 points, but 24th placed Doncaster are 1 point behind with 2 games in hand. Steve Cotterill’s side have lost their last 3- all by a 2-1 score line. Whilst goals had been an issue for Shrewsbury and it seems to be turning round in this department, Salop have conceded in all 16 games this season, conceding 2+ in 7 of these outings.
Liam Manning’s MK side come into this game off the back of a 2-1 EFL trophy victory over Wycombe 11 days ago. They have been in fine goal scoring form this season, scoring 21 in 11 league games. In Max Watters, Mo Eisa and Troy Parrot, MK have goal scoring talents in abundance. Perhaps their most exciting player is attacking midfielder Scott Twine, who has scored a whopping 13 goals from outside the area since the start of last season. This is more than anyone in Europe’s top 5 leagues and the EFL. With the talent MK Done have in their locker, mixed with Shrewsbury’s woeful defending, I can’t see anything but a win for MK.
Bet: MK Dons to win – Paddy Power @ 2.1
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