Blockbuster Sunday – Best Bets from Europe

De Topper – Ajax vs PSV

Clash of the titans from the Netherlands tonight when high flying Ajax will face the second biggest team from the Netherlands with just 1 point separating these two. De Topper might just turn into a one-sided affair with Ajax’s current form, but then again this is a massive rivalry so there should still be some aspects to be looked at.

Since the start of the season, Ajax has only lost once, that against a weak Utretch side which now seems like a usual affair. With a mammoth goal difference of 43-7 for Ajax since the beginning of this season, it’s easy to say that scoring against this team is a big task. Look at the result of the last game, Ajax literally made Dortmund look like a third-tier European team. Ajax has a fresh squad to start with and having their last game on Tuesday, they had a better recovery time than PSV who just played against Monaco on Thursday night.

A brilliant feat to be looked at here, Ajax has only lost during HT 3 times past 40 games. And the recent loss came in against none other than PSV when they faced each other during the Super cup back in July this year. On the other hand, PSV has only managed to win 5 times while heading to HT in the last 17 matches. A squad filled with attacking prowess like Haller, Berghuis, Tadic will be roaring to go-ahead from the first minute. PSV on the other hand will have to fight with their hectic night out against Monaco. One big miss would be Cody Gakpo, who has run the show for PSV in the frontline performing week in week out. He went off injured against Monaco and no confirmation yet if he will be available today against Ajax. Noni will be a big miss as well. We could see Zahavi starting upfront for PSV with support from Bruma, Vertessen, and Gotze.

Booking Scenario

Mind you Eredivisie is one of the cleanest leagues in Europe with average foul/booking counts for the teams and referees are simply not comparable to the other leagues. So don’t get disappointed already, we have a few angles here!

Ajax must be one of the cleanest sides in whole Europe, picking only 12 cards in all competition since the start where they played 12 games in total. League wise, Ajax has been carded only 6 times this season and their opponent has picked 14 in total. Last few games for Ajax reads as – 0,1,0,1,0,3,0,2,0. Ajax’s opponents has picked – 4,4,1,1,0,1,2,1,0.

PSV on the other hand not the cleanest side of the league, I mean with the standard of Eredivisie. PSV has picked 28 cards across all competitions since the start of the new season. League wise they have picked 13 cards from 9 matches this season where they have picked 2 cards minimum in every away game.

While I don’t bother much on H2H scenarios but on a match-up like this and with recent data on hand, you do need to look back a bit. These two faced each other in the super cup just a few months back and managed to generate 3 yellows and one red. That’s pretty high when you see it was even officiated by Bjorn Kuipers who wouldn’t usually show a card even if you insult him about his awful haircut. These two also met in February when there were no fans in the stadium and Managed to generate 6 yellow cards.

Referee

Couldn’t ask for a better person than S Gozubuyuk to blow the whistle on this match. The half Turkish Ref is currently leading the chart showing 25 cards in the league during his last 7 matches this season.

During this time, he has produced 4 red cards. His last few games read as (Home/Away) – 4/2,5/2,0/0,3/2,3/4,1/0,3/0. Fouls to card ratio suggest he doesn’t bother much if the fouls numbers have to rack up repeatedly, he will go for his pocket when he sees it. Thus his love for early card is incomparable. Past few matches for Gozubuyuk First half card reads as  – 4,2,0,2,2,1,2,0.  

Manchester United vs Liverpool

Some might disagree but this is still the biggest rivalry in English football with two teams showing up today at Old Trafford bringing years of glory and a cabinet full of silverware. One team is growing and showing up with occasional glimpses of SAF era, another team is marching towards the title challenge with currently the best player in the world with some incredible form. Yeah, I am talking about Mo, not Cristiano obviously.

I can write a few pages for this fixture but will just head to the bets directly –

Shots

Liverpool is on the bottom table when we talk about conceding shots. Small sample in the league but they only conceded more than 10 shots against Norwich, Brentford, Palace, and City. United on the other hand been smashing shots for fun, credit to none other than Cristiano and Co. United currently averaging 14 shots per game this season in the league. And their shot count goes up incredibly high when they chase, which has happened several times this season. United raked in 18 vs Leicester, 28 vs Villa, 17 vs WHU, 15 vs Soton. This match also carries significant importance besides the old rivalry, Ole’s future might depend on this one. Do I see United winning this game easily? No. Do I see Liverpool staying ahead on this game? Yes. While Rashford’s absence might see united missing a few counts but with the attacking lineup they have, It’s not too much to ask to see some flurries of shots from Ole’s team.

Tackles

United has positioned themselves on the upper part of the table when it comes to suffering tackles resulting in an avg of 16.75 opponent tackles per game. Liverpool on the other hand is making an avg 15.1 tackles per game this season. Last few for Liverpool read as – 18,17,11,21,8,16,18. The last time when these two met, Liverpool had raked in 16 tackles in total.

Player Cards and Offsides

McFred is Ole’s trusted duo for any big game, or you can say every game. And Both are somewhat default choices for any punter though everyone lost a few liters of sweat on why McTominay wasn’t getting carded last season even after making millions of fouls. Fred will do most of the tracking and ball retention, wouldn’t be that harsh to say that he is not the best at it. PL Veteran James Milner is poised to start on the right for Liverpool, he is averaging 2.8 fouls per game this season. Carded twice this season already, he will be tested through the ranks by foul magnets like Cristian, Pogba, and Co.

Attacking wise, no one comes close to Trent’s ability in the league as a full back. His make shift work is unparalleled when generating Liverpool’s attack. Liverpool has totaled 16 offsides this season in 8 matches, seeing a minimum of 2 in all their last 4 matches. Liverpool leads the leaderboard of highest offside in total in EPL this season with 6.1 total offsides per game. United sits 4th with 4.5 match offsides per game.  And one player that contributed in all last 3 Liverpool matches is Trent. Expect him to continue his runs and united’s high (semi) line will surely be a way to trap him offside.

Lens vs Metz

Lens is having their best season in recent history. Currently sitting at 2nd place, they are now eyeing a European place. Lens and Metz both sit at 8th and 6th most fouls committing team in the league, while Lens has gone way up on the foul count in the past 5 games during they cemented their position in the top three (14 fouls compared to 12.3 season avg). Metz on the other hand not short of any rough nature, attracting second-highest fouls in the league and making on avg 13 fouls per game.

Booking wise Lens has only failed twice to pick a minimum of 2 cards out of 10 games, and their fouls to card ratio are very promising. Past few games for Lens reads as – 4,3,1,4,2,2,2,3. Lens’ opponents has picked 5,3,2,3,2,3,4,3 in past few games. Metz is on thin lines at this point with their awful form, they are desperate to pull themselves out of the relegation zone. On the road to the relegation zone, Metz has picked 3,3,2,7,4,2,2 cards in past few games while their opponent has seen 1,1,3,2,2,1.

Referee

 Ref J Pignard taking in charge of this one must be one of the most consistent referees this season in Ligue 1. Took charge of 6 games this season in Ligue 1, Pignard has shown a total of 26 cards with an avg Booking point of 53.3 per game. He is one of those refs who will produce when there’s need, having a very low foul to card ratio he has upped his game where Pignard is showing at least a card for 4 fouls on avg.

Very promising compared to other refs this season. Pignard has shown 2+ cards each in 4/6 matches this season. One important thing to note here, usually card count dictates significantly when a team goes up by more than one goal, but Pignard usually is a bit different here. Never been shy of carding.

Inter vs Juventus

Blockbuster Sunday brings another big one here when Inter faces Juventus at San Siro. While Juventus is slowly catching up their form, they are still shy of a few points to break into the top 3. Juventus’ stability of result has come with them being defensively sound lately. That has resulted in their foul count hitting sky-high. In the past 5 matches, Juventus has made a total of 77 fouls, averaging just shy of 16 fouls per game. Last few game read as on conceding fouls – 18,14,22,10,13.

Inter on the other hand been a bit cleaner on the fouls counter. Averaging 14 fouls made per game, their match average is just about 24 fouls compare to Juventus’ 31.2 per game. Ref Mariani is a common name for the bettors, and everyone loves him. He has blown the whistle on avg of 29.8 times per game this season. His last few game reads as – 32,20,24,35,41.

Suggested Bets

Juventus Over 12.5 fouls conceded @ 2.00 with Unibet / Kambi

Match Total O25.5 fouls @ 1.85 with Unibet/Kambi

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