Another Sunday and we are here with some cherry-picked value bets from all over Europe. Starting with France, we are heading to Italy and then some short stoppages around England and Spain.
Strasbourg vs Lorient
A matchup between two of the highest foul generating machines in the league, this has all the ingredients to make it an interesting affair. Strasbourg has started slow but picked up their pace over the weeks when they managed to hit 4 Ws in the last 2 months. Currently just shy of a few points from the upper half of the table, Strasbourg is targeting to stay on that bracket for the first time in two decades. Hosts will be without the service of Maxime, Karol Fila, Moise Sahi and most importantly Kevin Gameiro might also be out with injuries. Lorient on the other hand has a fit squad.
As mentioned, Strasbourg makes the highest number of fouls in the league with an Avg of 14.3 fouls per game this season. Lorient makes about 13 fouls per game which sets them high on the ladder too. Both teams dominate the card leaderboard too, with Lorient being the highest caution picker in the league (35 cards in 11 matches) and Strasbourg being 4th (28 in 11 matches). Fouls to card ratio look decent for both the teams with Lorient picking 1 card for 4.5 fouls whereas Strasbourg picks a card for every 5.15 fouls. Number-wise, the home side has picked at least 2 cards in 8/11 and their opponent has also picked up an avg 2.4 cards per game with 7/11 match that had atleast 2 opponent cards. Lorient on the other hand has picked a minimum of 2 cards in 10/11 matches with their away record has seen them picking 1,2,3,4,8,3. Lorient’s past few game reads as – 4,1,2,2,3,3,2,4,8.
Referee
Florent Batta taking charge of this fixture, who has been maintaining the highest booking avg this season. Though the sample is small with Florent reffing only 4 games this season in Ligue 1, he still holds the first position when we make the leaderboard on Ligue 1 refs showing a card for fouling reasons only. F Batta has shown 29 cards this season in L1 and L2 combined, with his avg going up to 6.1 cards per game if we exclude his Ligue 2 records. His last 4 Ligue 1 games read as – (5-4), (4-5), (4-2), (1-0). Florent Batta also has shown 2 cards for each team in his last 4/6 matches this season.
Best Bets
Both teams to pick 19.5 Booking points each @ 2.0 with William Hill (1.72 with Bet365)
Over 3.5 match cards and Lorient +2 Card handicap @ 1.8 with William Hill your odds
Troyes vs Rennes
Rennes traveling to Troyes with only 3 points behind second placed Lens. Troyes at home has been undefeated past 3 games which pulled them off from the relegation spot. Rennes on the other hand been in some top class form with them being undefeated in past 5 games with their past 3 games has seen no opponent going past the goal line.
Troyes’s solid defensive line has seen them conceding a low number of goals this season with only 15 goals by the opponents in 11 games. One concerning thing for this game would be the massive injury list that the home side is dealing with right now with about 7 first team players are out injured. Troyes will have to rely on their wing backs today to deal with the pressure that Rennes creates on the flanks. Troyes ranks high on the discipline table with them being 7th on the highest cautioned team in the league picking 26 cards in 11 matches averaging 2.35 cards per match.
Rennes on the other hand climbing the table like there’s no tomorrow. While camavinga’s absence has been felt but the squad has picked up where they left off last season. Rennes ranks 10th on the table with the average number of goals scored this season but they have been cruising like anything past two months scoring 19 goals on the process. Rennes doesn’t like to sit back at all, they control and make quick breaks which makes the opponent pretty much vulnerable to the max. The last 7 match has seen Rennes maintaining an avg of 60%+ possession and in the meantime, they have taken a total of 131 shots averaging about 19 shots per match.
Corners
With Rennes’ current form, their corner count has gone up significantly high as well. In the past 8 matches, Rennes has averaged 6.5+ team corners per game with their past few games having dictated the number higher (past few – 11,10,4,6,5,7). Rennes has won on corners 5 times this season whereas Troyes has only managed to win 3 times. Troyes has been averaging barely 3 corners per game this season with the past few matches read as – 1,3,7,2,3,1,1.
Best Bets
Rennes -1 Asian corner Handicap @ 1.95 with Bet365
Rennes 13.5+ shots @ 1.85 with Unibet
Rennes to win @ 2.0 with Most of the bookies.
Fiorentina vs Spezia
With only 4 points behind the UCL spot, this could be the perfect chance for Fiorentina to show up and take 3 points home. With glimpses of some exciting football under Vincezo, one thing that Fiorentina needs is consistency. They remain the only team in the league with no draws yet, all matches had generated a W/L result.
Spezia ranks number one on the list of conceding goals this season with their opponents averaging 2.3 goals per game. Spezia also ranks second on the list for conceding goals from open play where Fiorentina’s strength relies on.
Fiorentina has been hit and miss this season, but I am pretty sure all will agree that they have all it needs to break into the top 4 this season. Fiorentina is never short of a quick start; they have only lost 2 times this season in the First half and won 5 times which kept them in the top 3 for FH wins in the league. Spezia on the other hand only managed to win twice in FH that came against Venezia and Cagliari.
With all the matrices being considered, there are high chances Spezia will spend some time tailing this match. And when they chase, they hit flurries of corners. Spezia has been averaging 5.3 corners per match this season where they hit 3,8,10,5,2,5,10 in the past few. Fiorentina on the other hand concedes a real low count, averaging about 3.4 opponent corners.
Fouls/Cards/Referee
Fiorentina ranks joint first on the list of most fouls suffered team in the league with Genoa with an avg opponent foul count of 15.6 this season. Spezia on the other hand makes the third lowest fouls with an avg of 11.7 fouls per game. While Fiorentina ranks pretty lower on the list of making fouls but they make sure it’s worth a card at least, currently sitting at 4th position on the discipline table they have been averaging 3.6 cards per game this season. Also, Fiorentina’s opponents have averaged 3.2 cards per game this season.
Referee A. Giua taking charge of this match who has only officiated 4 fixtures this season, 3 of them are in Serie B. He took charge of the Sassuolo vs Salernitana match last month and showed 3-3 cards. On avg, he has produced about 58.75 booking points this season. He has been a busy man blowing the whistle this season, he called an avg of 34 fouls per game this season which ranks him one of the highest at this point.
Best Bets
Over 1.0,1.5 FH goal line @ 1.97 with Unibet/Bet365
Fiorentina O1.5 cards and Spezia O2.5 corners @ 1.9 with Bet365 or Will Hill
Fiorentina O12.5 shots @ 1.85 with Unibet
Vlahic to score anytime and Fiorentina to win @ 2.25 with Bet365
Few more selections from Around Europe
- Raphinha O1.5 Shots on Target @ 2.5 with Paddy/betfair (Available with other books)
- Aston Villa O8.5 Free Kicks and Over 15.5 throw ins via betbuilder @ 1.8 with Bet365
- Aston Villa Over 12.5 tackles and West Ham Over 1.5 offsides via Betbuilder @ 3.75 with Bet365
- Roma O12.5 fouls conceded @ 1.85 with Unibet
- Getafe O11.5 shots @1.95 with Unibet
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