Local Brightonian and our very own journalism wonderkid Matthew O’Regan shares his thoughts on today’s afternoon kickoff as 8th place Brighton host winless Newcastle in Saturday’s televised evening kick off.
Brighton
After a spirited comeback against Liverpool, Graham Potter’s side will be full of confidence. Last seasons clashes against Newcastle saw the Seagulls record back to back 3-0 wins. In fact, in the 8 Premier League games between these sides, Newcastle are yet to win – scoring only 1 of their 96 shots against Brighton. Albion have welcomed back the dynamic Tariq Lamptey, star midfielder Yves Bissouma and record signing Adam Webster back in recent weeks, only strengthening Brighton’s side.
Newcastle
Newcastle have had a horrific start to the season, sitting in 19th – with only Norwich behind them. The Magpies are without a win from 10, and will be hoping interim manager Graeme Jones can spark some life into the side. If they are to record a first victory of the season, Allan Saint-Maximin and his box of tricks and the prolific Callum Wilson will be key.
Shots?
With Brighton expected to dominate the balls, I expect plenty of shots for the hosts. Brighton average 11.6 shots per game this season, whereas Newcastle average 15.30 shots against. With many bookies being rightly stingy with shot lines, I’ve decided to delve deeper into individual player shots.
Adam Lallana has been a mainstay in the Albion side this season, and arguably player of the season. In Bissouma and Mwepu’s absence, Lallana has been in a deep role dictating play. However, in recent weeks he has enjoyed a more advanced role just off the striker. Against Norwich, he found himself in attacking positions and managed a shot on target. In the home game against Man City, he had a more disciplined role so wasn’t as far forward. On his return to Anfield, most of Brighton’s play centered around the 33 year old, with Lallana picking up an assist and a shot on target. He often finds himself in goal-scoring positions but elects to pass rather than shoot. With more of the ball expected for Brighton, don’t be surprised to see him have a pop at goal.
Enock Mwepu has broken into the side after a fine cameo against Man City. The Zambian was rewarded with 45 minutes off the bench against Leicester in the Carabao Cup, scoring a goal and recording 4 shots. He then started at Anfield, scoring again and having 2 shots. Bissouma’s addition to midfield allows Mwepu to make his long bursting runs into the box, as he is a threat in the air as-well.
Bets
Adam Lallana over 0.5 shots on target- 2.62 @ Bet365
Enock Mwepu 1+ shot on target -2.4 @ Paddy Power/Betfair
Enock Mwepu 2+ shots- 1.83 @ Paddy Power/Betfair
Cards?
David Coote takes the whistle for this clash, averaging 4.14 cards per game this season. Brighton average 2.4 cards per game and 1.9 cards against. Newcastle average 2.8 cards per game and 1.9 cards against. Therefore, cards look a play in a big game for both teams. Whilst 2.20 odds of 2+ cards each team tempts, it is player cards that intrigue me.
Tariq Lamptey came off the bench for a 24 minute cameo against Liverpool. Whilst the young talent wasn’t fouled once, he had Robertson and the Liverpool midfield on toast, with many attempting a cynical foul. Lamptey has tremendous running ability and can beat any man on his day, as shown last weekend. At Left wing back for Newcastle is likely to be Matt Ritchie, a player who has 4 yellows in 10 games this season and 2 in his last 2. All 4 of his bookings have come from when Newcastle play a back 5.
Marc Cucurella has set the Premier League alight since his arrival from Getafe in the summer. From his luscious locks to his energetic style of play, there is a lot to like about Cucurella. Back in 1964, Muhammad Ali famously said : “float like a butterfly, sting like a bee,” and this is the case for Cucurella. The Spaniard has received 2 cards so far this season, adding to his 18 over the last two seasons.
Bets
Matt Ritchie to be booked – 4.20 @ SkyBet
Marc Cucurella to be booked – 4.5 @ Paddy Power/Betfair
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