MLS Decision Day – Best Bets and Playoffs Equation

Eastern Conference

D Day in MLS and eastern conference is on the verge of seeing a class day overall! 4 playoff spots have been confirmed already with NER, Philly, Nashville, and NYCFC has it confirmed, Other 3 spots are up for grabs today and there are 6 teams chasing them. Let’s have a look at Which fixtures will have the juice on it and what is at stake at this point –

Nashville vs NYRB

This is surely the fixture of the day, Nashville has already clinched the spot with currently sitting at 3^rd position and NYRB covering the last position with 47 points but Montreal, DC, Columbus, all can make it if NYRB misses out getting at least a point here.

Nashville is currently even with 53 points with Philly, hitting 3 points tomorrow would see them taking the second spot meaning they will be guaranteed a lower seed team and a home opener in the MLS cup first round.

Team Scenario

Nashville is having another great season, having to be on the top three in the Eastern conference with the lowest possible budget and the new team wasn’t an easy ride. They have one of the meanest defenses in the league with only 32 goals conceded, the Same as NYRB. Nashville has already secured at least 1 MLS cup home game and getting 3 points here means they will move to the second position and might end up having more home games. FYI, Home game advantage is considered the biggest asset in MLS. Forget that match against Cincinnati, Nashville has seen a stalemate 17 times this season. Yes, they have drawn 17 matches this season out of 33. Also, the good news for Nashville is that McCarty is back tomorrow, the former NYRB captain will have a massive impact in the field.

NYRB has been one of the best teams to watch in the second phase of the season. High press, endless energy, and a defense line built like the great wall of China have put them into the playoff position this year even after a shaky start.

Hear from Nashville boss – “They are an incredibly high energy team. All of the stats you want to look at will tell you the immense pressure they want to put on the opponent. We could see that in full flow Wednesday night against one of the best possession teams in Atlanta. What I know is we’re going to run into a very, very outwardly mobile group”.

Playoffs Equation

At this point, NYRB just needs a point and they are off to the MLS cup. Their current run of form is extraordinary, with only one loss in the last 11 and hitting W against teams like NYCFC, Montreal, Columbus. Nashville would welcome a win, but a draw would be fine for them too. Wouldn’t make a massive difference but as mentioned, 3 points here would see them heading to the second position which has some added advantage.

Betting Angles

Nashville loves a draw, shows up well with their 17 draws out of 33 this season. NYRB had only 8 draws this season but it’s hard to score against them. Both teams are undoubtedly best defensively. While RBNY’s attacking threat is top class but their conversion rate is incredibly low. Corner wise NYRB lost only 4 out of the last 10. Their recent corner count shows their change of playing style past 2/3 months. NYRB has hit 12,2,11,5,5,6,6,4,5 in past few matches. Nashville on the other hand has a shaky record but doesn’t concede many. Nashville has won corner bet only 3 times past 10 games.

Montreal CF vs Orlando City

Orlando missed out on an easy chance against Nashville last week when they had to share points, currently, at 6^th position, they have accumulated 48 points and a draw here will see them sealing their playoffs. Montreal has a very slim chance of sealing playoffs with a draw, they are in need of 3 points.

Montreal passed the second last barrier by winning 2-0 against Houston, now they just need 3 points to secure playoffs. As simple as that. A few things that might just give the players a positive vibe is that the Canadian side they have only lost 2 home matches this season and didn’t lose any match against their opponents yet this season. Milhailovic and Quito both are in contention for tomorrow for Montreal, Milhailovic currently ranks second in MLS with 12 assists, and Quito is decent lately with 5 goals and 2 assists past 10 games.

Orlando on the other hand been in up and down form over the past few months, a streak of awful results put them into this situation otherwise they were heading for the top 3 half of the season. With star names in the squad like Nani, Dike, Mueller you would think this team would just walk past the Montreal team easily. Orlando is currently winless in the past 4 matches, going a bit backward they have only won 2 matches out of the last 15 and shared points in 4 matches only. The defensive duty would be the key issue here for Orlando at this point. The match might well be decided how their backline acts which usually crumbles with the softest pressure. Scoring is never a problem for Orlando with Nani, Dike, and Mueller starting. Orlando has scored in 13 out of the last 15 matches.

Playoffs Equation

A win for Montreal sees them clinching the playoffs, anything less would see them eliminated. Orlando can make their way to the playoffs with a draw or win. A win for Orlando gives them a better chance to get a home fixture also.

Betting Angles

Easy as it may be seen, it’s a hard call at this point with how many goals this match will generate. Montreal only had 3 matches past 15 matches where they couldn’t find the net, 2 of those against the best defense in the league (Nashville and NYRB). With do or die option for Montreal, we will see them going all in and as noted about Orlando’s shaky defense this will be something to be worried about. The last 10 games for both the team read as –

Montreal: 4W 3D 3L, 1.6 Goals Per Match, 4.2 Shots on Goal avg, 6.2 corners per match, 1.4 goals conceded per match.

Orlando: 2W 4D 4L, 1.5 Goals-per match, 4.1 Shots on goal avg, 4.3 corners per match, 1.9 goals conceded per match.

Montreal has lost in corners only 3 times past 10 matches, while Orlando has lost 7 of their last 10.

Discipline wise Orlando is a consistent picker of at least 20 booking points per match (8 out of last 10 matches) and has accumulated about 38.75 booking points per match this season. Montreal on the other hand is also a rough side with picking just shy of 20 booking points per match ( 20+ bp only in 4 of their past 10 matches) and accumulated about 45.25 match booking points this season. With everything at stake for Montreal and Orlando’s defensive lackings might push this match to be a feisty one.

Suggested Bets

Over 2 Goal Line @ 4/5 with Sporting Index

Montreal -1 Corner handicap @ 1.95 with Paddy Power/Betfair

Montreal 5.5+ team corners @ 1.93 with Paddy/Sky/Unibet

Orlando Most booking Points @ 1.9 with Unibet/Bet365

Western Conference

The western conference has lots to settle on the final day of the MLS regular season. The top three positions is still up for grabs for Seattle, Kansas, and Colorado with the top 2 going for the Concacaf Champions League. Minnesota and Vancouver hold the 5th and 6th position, with LA Galaxy holding the last playoff position. RSL and LAFC are still in contention with some dependent variables in other fixtures.

Vancouver Whitecaps vs Seattle Sounders

The Cascadia derby should be nothing short of excitement. Vancouver has made BC Place a fortress this season, with only one loss and 7 wins at home. With Interim coach Vanni Santirini, Vancouver is putting up some decent show and the addition of Ryan Gauld has surely made the team click like magic. Seattle on the other hand is only 1 point ahead of SKC. Seattle can still afford a draw, but a win will guarantee their CCL spot.

Ignore my Local bias but Whitecaps is entertaining everyone with some brilliant football lately even with half of their Defenders out injured for over a month now. They are on the brink of making the playoffs for the first time since 2017, along with due for sure! MLS’ all-time highest saves in a single match record holder (19 vs San Jose back in 2019) are in some serious form with Club and country. Brian White should start after being given a short cameo in the last match against LAFC, the US International is scoring goals for fun lately. With 12 goals and 5 assists this season (most of them came in the second part of the season), he will create plenty of problems for the Seattle backline. Player of the year contender Ryan Gauld must be mentioned here, his relentless running and playmaking have turned the average Vancouver side into a threatening one for sure.

Seattle made it difficult for them, even a month back it was clear as day that they will clinch the top spot easily. Some big injuries and inconsistency made the impact and SKC went on closing the gap with Seattle. Nonetheless, they are still firepower. Most probably the most efficient side conversion-wise. Even though this match-up is considered as a Derby, but Vancouver hardly can match up to their neighbor’s standard. Seattle hasn’t seen a defeat against Vancouver since 2017. The big news for Seattle is that Raul Ruidiaz and Nico Lodeiro are back. They were introduced against LAG for a brief period so we can expect to see these two veterans on the field today at BC Place. Without Raul and Nico, the away side has struggled bad only scoring 4 goals past 5 matches.

Playoffs Equation

Vancouver just needs a Draw or win to clinch the playoff spot. Seattle, on the other hand, is already in the playoffs, saving their position at the top of the Western conference will surely be a cherry on top with 2 top teams getting a spot directly to the Concacaf Champions League.

Betting Angles

Both the teams are seeing flurries of shots lately. Whitecaps’ last 5 matches have generated 21.2 shots on avg per match (both teams combined). Seattle on the other hand has been averaging 23.6 shots per match. This match will not be short of any of it, last time they met in October both teams has generated 21-11 shots! This match got some good potential with corners too. While Vancouver doesn’t win corner match bets (lost in corners 8 out of last 10), they do generate a decent number of corners. Thanks to their wide players and makeshift fullbacks. Caps has seen 10.2+ corners in the past 5 matches where they went on hitting 5,4,2,5,3. Seattle on the other hand slowly picked up their counts. Averaging 9.8 match corners in the last 5, they have gone on hitting 5,10,3,0,7 team corners. Their corner match win rate goes pretty lower when they win, went up significantly higher in past few matches due to their bad streak of form in getting results. While Seattle is struggling with their scoring form, Getting back Raul and Nico would surely pump up their attacking chances as Raul is the main firepower of the team. While Vancouver has a tendency of seeing tight matches at home and winning them by close margins, I am not ruling out Seattle even with their worst run. We will see goals, not going with the numbers but with all stats and other indicators combined this has great potential to hit BTTS and O2.5 goals.

Suggested Bets

Over 25.5 Match shots @ Evens with Unibet/Kambi

Over 9.5 match corners @ 1.75 with bet365

Over 2,5 Goals @ 1.875 with Bet365

Vancouver 0.0 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 with Bet365

Few Additional Bets for the rest of the evening:

• Real Salt Lake O3.5 corners @ 1.83 with Bet365
• NYCFC vs Philly BTTS & O2.5 @ 2.0 with Bet365
• San Jose vs Dallas O3 Goal Line @ 2.0 with Bet 365 and Dallas O4.5 corners @ 2.1 with Bet365.
• Colorado vs LAFC BTTS and O2 LAFC corners via Betbuilder @ 1.86 with Bet365

Want to join our Limited Private group? Look at our long term numbers below. Check our Membership page or Click Here to Join!