The last international break of far too many in 2021 is coming up. For many football fanatics this marks a time of immense dread and most can’t wait for “… real football to return”. However, there’s a heap of interesting scenarios possible as the European countries make a final scramble to secure a direct flight to Qatar in 2022, or at the very least, become one of the 12 teams contesting for the 3 playoff spots available. Only Denmark and Germany have already secured their World Cup place from Europe – let’s take a look at what can happen.
Group A
Portugal and Serbia are have both secured the top two spots from this group. However, those two are still to decide which side will secure automatic qualification and which side will have to endure the playoffs. Currently, Serbia (first placed) has one point over Portugal (second placed) but Serbia has played 7 matches while Portugal only 6.
Portugal faces Ireland before they host Serbia in this crucial deciding match. Should Portugal (somewhat surprisingly perhaps) fail to overcome the Irish, a draw will still send them atop the group via goal difference, and a loss will make their final encounter even tastier. Adding to the immediate difficulties in facing one of the continents’ strongest sides, you have to go far back to find the last time Portugal lost a competitive qualifier at home (in fact, 7th of September 2014 marks that occasion as Albania surprised the hosts with a 1-0 win).
Both Serbia and Portugal are undefeated in the group and their previous encounter in Belgrade saw Serbia mounting a comeback from 0-2 at half time to secure a 2-2 draw. Whoever will finish second in the group should become seeded for the playoffs due to high point accumulation by those two.
Group B
Sweden and Spain are seemingly en route to Qatar but Greece still has a minor chance to rock the boat. All three teams mentioned here have played six matches, and with minnows Georgia and Kosovo far behind and completely out of the race in this group, there is a lot to play for between those sides, especially since all of them play two matches in this final turn. Sweden are positioned best in the group, first placed with 15 points, followed by Spain on 13 points while Greece has 9 points. First off, Sweden faces Georgia while Spain visits Greece, where the fate of the Hellenic nation is decided.
Sweden winning their match takes them to 18 points and guarantees their place in Qatar if Spain loses. Should Spain lose, Greece still has hopes of robbing them of second spot in the following match (where Greece plays Kosovo). Spain can draw but they can’t afford it should they have to venture via playoffs, so what Spain hopes for is a win. The significance of keeping up with the Swedes is that Spain faces Sweden in the last match. Should both win in round 7, that match will become the ultimate decider in Group B.
A lot rests of Spain vs. Greece for all three sides, making the intra-Mediterranean match a massive six-pointer. Neither Spain nor Sweden will be too keen to have to try for the playoff round, but there’s a high possibility that either side will be seeded. In the events of that, Spain needs to win at least one match and Greece both.
Group C
There is little to say about this group as Italy and Switzerland have already secured their standings as the top two sides in this group, but, they’ll go head to head next Friday. Both sides have 14 points but Italy is ahead of them by virtue of goal difference/goals scored – 12:1 to 10:1. While the Swiss side could cause an upset, it’s hard to look away from the incredible form the Italian side is in, and their home record over the past years is incredible. In other words, a Swiss win will surely be an upset. Italy plays Northern Ireland in their last match while Switzerland faces Bulgaria. If Italy wins Switzerland, a draw at Windsor Park seals the deal. The question of which side will enter the playoffs, Switzerland can jeopardize being seeded should they lose their last two matches.
Group D
Seeing how the points in this group have been divided along with the goals scored/condeded this group has either been defensive or boring (depending on your worldview).
- France are first placed, 12 points, 8:3 on goals
- Ukraine are second, 9 points, 9:8 on goals
- Finland are third, 8 points, 7:7 on goals
- Bosnia are fourth, 7 points, 8:7 on goals
- Kazakhstan are fifth, 3 points, 5:12 on goals.
Ukraine and Kazakhstan are the only sides to have played 7 matches and Kazakhstan will most likely leave France with 0 points, as the French side will guarantee their ticket to Doha with a win. The absolutely crucial match on the prior matchday this time around in regards to Group D is Bosnia vs. Finland. Their prior encounter ended 2-2 and Ukraine benefits most from a repeat of events there (seeing as they’ll still sit second on a goal difference advantage relative to Finland).
Ahead of the final match we’ll see Finland hosting France and Bosnia hosting Ukraine. Bosnia versus Ukraine, results in the previous matches notwithstanding, is also a three pointer, since Ukraine needs a win anyway to keep up with their current second place. What makes a playoff spot here somewhat detrimental, is the fact that it’s extremely unlikely that any side will manage to be seeded for the playoff draw.
Group E
This one is perhaps the most interesting and the most confusing, due to the fact that both Czech Republic and Wales can both qualify via their group standing as well as qualifying through their Nations League group standings. As stated on Wikipedia, “The best two Nations League group winners that finished outside the top two of their qualifying group will advance to the play-offs and will be unseeded in the semi-final draw” and as things stand, either Czech Republic or Wales will qualify via this method alongside Austria.
Belgium is currently top of this group, Czech Republic and Wales are tied second and third with 11 points, but Czech Republic holds onto second spot via goal difference – 12:9 against 8:7. What complicates matters further here is the fact that Wales has played one less match than the Czech team, and while Belgium plays Estonia, and while we can guess who wins that match, Wales faces Belarus. Even though Belarus’ domestic league caught the eye of the world about 20 months ago their national team is relatively weak – and those who watched the league can probably relate as to why! Should Wales win, their final match against Belgium will become a decisive match, not only because a Welsh win will secure their qualifications, it will most likely upset the balance of which qualifying sides will be seeded and those who won’t. A Belgian win (looking at odds, more likely) while Czech Republic hosts Estonia – Czech likely to win that – means that being seeded as one of the top six sides is extremely unlikely for both sides. So there’s a particularly interesting dilemma which completely rides on Wales gaining full house in the last two matches – Belgium is the only side to have defeated the Cymru in these qualifiers.
Group F
Denmark has a 100% record in the group, 24 points and Scotland is almost safe, with 17 points at second place. While an upset in the group is unlikely, Israel can still mathematically steal the second place – should Israel win Austria and Scotland lose to Moldova simultaneously. If this becomes the scenario, Israel will be in a prime position since their last encounter is against the Faroe Islands while Scotland needs to win Denmark. But, Moldova hasn’t given us much reason to hope for a upset. Scotland should therefore manage a win and secure their seeded playoff spot.
Group G
Netherlands (1st, 19 points, 29:6), Norway (2nd, 17 points, 15:6) and Turkey (3rd, 15 points, 19:15) all play the bottom three teams in the group before entering the last round of matches which we can expect to be crucial, especially since Netherlands and Norway play each other in the final match. Should Norway defeat Latvia, Netherlands defeat Montenegro and Turkey manage to defeat Gibraltar, the final round will look like this:
- Norway absolutely cannot afford to lose against Netherlands – who, in turn cannot afford to lose the top spot to Norway. Should either of those two win, the team entering the playoffs via Group Stage will most likely be seeded due to strong showings in the table.
- Turkey should hope for a Netherlands victory since a draw there does little for them. As goal difference stands now, Turkey would need to win by six goals.
It’ll be a difficult task predicting it in this instance but, regardless, Netherlands vs. Norway will be the one to look out for here.
Group H
The top two sides are secured in this group and it’s Russia and Croatia who’ve secured those spots – Russia on 19 points and Croatia on 17. They’ll play Cyprus and Malta respectively before going head to head in the final match. A Maltese/Cypriot upset aside, Russia can play for a draw to keep their top spot, while Croatia needs to win. Keeping in mind what happened last time when Russia played for a draw (vs. Denmark in the Euros when they parked the bus extremely unsuccessfully), we might see Russia trying to attack on the Croats but whether the wealth of experience in the Croatian side will prevail makes their final showdown one of the biggest matches to look out for.
The high number of points by both sides means they’re very likely to be seeded in the playoff draw.
Group I
England is a shoo-in for Qatar but there’s still a mathematical possibility of a top three reshuffling between England (1st, 20 points, 24:3), Poland (2nd, 17 points, 25:8) and Albania (3rd, 15 points, 11:7). England plays Albania prior to the last match while Poland faces Andorra. The Hungarian side still has mathematical chances of finishing top two as well, but it’ll be a longshot. While it might seem far-fetched, Albania winning 1-0 and Poland winning 5-0 would put Poland ahead before the final match, where England faces San Marino. Yeah. Do I need to write more? Probably not, but I’ll do anyway. While England probably has a pretty easy time with San Marino, Albania faces Andorra and Poland has the toughest draw against Hungary. But, while speculating is fun, this situation is dependent on too many variables and we’ll most likely see “Football’s coming home” top the British Pop Music Charts in November 2022. The playoff spot from this group is also very likely to be seeded, whether it’ll be England, Poland or Albania occupying it.
Group J
Group J is perhaps the most open of the six-nations groups and while Germany is secure in its top qualifying spot, the struggle for second place is fiercely contested by Armenia, North Macedonia and Romania. Armenia and North Macedonia are tied at third and fourth with 12 points but North Macedonia claims third spot by virtue of goal difference (NM has +5 while Armenia has -3), while Romania, second placed, have 13 points and +3 goal difference. Iceland sit fifth placed and while it’s a gigantic longshot that they’ll finish second, there’s a mathematical possibility of it, clinging on to 8 points and a -4 goal difference.
Thursday in Group J starts with Armenia hosting North Macedonia and both sides surely need to go all in for a win. Either side winning here means Iceland is out of the equation, and a draw does little for both sides here. These two nations previously met in September and shared the spoils without scoring. In regards to a potential tiebreaker, North Macedonia stands better with 15 goals scored and, as mentioned, +5 goal difference (head-to-head results are the third decisive factor). What Armenia needs here is absolutely a win, given that their final match is that versus Germany, who annihilated them in their previous encounter 6-0, heavily contributing to their lackluster goal difference. A draw will favor North Macedonia more, but it’s still a risky step to take since their last match is against Iceland, who benefit equally from a draw. What this specific encounter benefits from is an earlier kick-off, so Iceland will know it’s fate heading into their encounter with Romania, and there’ll be a North Atlantic nation of 360.000 people collectively banking on a draw in Yerevan. More specifically, should the result of this earlier match be a victory either way, it will fuel Romania to go all in for a win versus Iceland. Even though Romania plays behind closed doors the impetus of a win is far larger and whilst lacking support in the stands, being one step closer to qualifying for the World Cup, as they’ve been absent from it since 1998, is a massive reward. Should Romania win against Iceland, they have their Group J farewell encounter versus one of the continent’s weakest sides, Liechtenstein. While they’re normally an easy win for most teams, Armenia failed to win against them last September, which might come to be a decisive result in the three horse race that is Group J.
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