With a host of games over the coming days, the chance of yellow cards is rife, so in this article I will be attempting to pick some winners from five selected games, including my Card Nap of the Weekend, other players I see as value singles plus some of those big priced doubles and trebles we all love ending with a MONSTER 778/1 Long Shot!
Game: Aston Villa vs Brighton
When: Saturday 20th November- 15:00
Referee: Anthony Taylor
Aston Villa host Brighton in Steven Gerrard’s first game in charge of Villa. With the Villians in 16th place and hovering 2 points off the drop zone, Gerrard will be hoping for a winning start. Whilst Brighton are sat in 7th place, they are without a win in 7 so Villa may fancy their chances. When a new manager comes into a struggling side, changes to the playing squad are bound to happen, especially those who have been out form.
One player this applies to is Matt Targett. The left back has been poor this season and there have been calls for him to be dropped. Therefore, the 26-year-old will be keen to impress the new gaffer and cement his place in the side.
Targett is averaging 1.1 fouls per game in the league, picking up 2 yellows from 10 appearances. He also picked up 7 cautions last season so is no stranger to the referee’s notebook.
His direct opponent is likely to be Tariq Lamptey. Whilst I am not a fan of using H2H as a reason for bets, last time Targett faced Lamptey, the diminutive full back tormented him all game, leading to the 26-year-old defender picking up a booking on the stroke of half time. Lamptey has been easing back into the side after a lengthy injury lay-off and is back causing issues. Andrew Robertson struggled to contain him off the bench at Anfield, whilst the 21-year-old also gave Jack Grealish the run-around. With Graham Potter preferring to push the youngster further forward with Joel Veltman covering, he will be directly against Targett. Not the afternoon a struggling left back would be after.
The referee for this one is Anthony Taylor who has been in good carding form and has brandished the second most cards of this weekend’s officials. He has given 4.66 cards per game- hopefully he adds to this total this weekend with Matty Targett a victim.
Card Nap: Matt Targett – 5/1 Bet 365 – 1 unit
Double: Matt Targett and Adam Lallana – 40/1- Bet 365- 0.5 unit
Game: Burnley vs Crystal Palace
When: Saturday 20th November- 15:00
Referee: Simon Hooper
Whilst Matthew Lowton has only picked up one yellow card this season and averages 0.3 fouls per game, his direct opponent should be Wilfried Zaha. The stroppy winger has been fouled a whopping 3.1 times per game- the highest in the league. He was also fouled 6 times in his sole carabao cup game.
Zaha is an extremely difficult player to face and many opponents resort to fouling him to stop him. This is due to his close control and fantastic skillset. However, it is also as he is extremely easy to wind up. The Ivorian winger would start a fight in an empty room.
Burnley have developed a reputation for being tough tackling and ‘dirty’, which isn’t always true. Saying that, Sean Dyche will want to win at any cost and may target Zaha and hope for some petulance. With Lowton up against the Eagles key-man, I expect his job will be to rile up the Palace star which may result in a booking.
Zaha didn’t play in either game against Burnley last season, but Eberechi Eze was against Lowton at Turf Moor and the right-back was booked. So much for hating head-to-head records!
Overseeing this tie is Simon Hooper. He is a ref who can be very hit and miss. This season he ranks quite averagely in terms of cards per game shown. (3.5) but let’s hope this is a “going” weekend for him.
Selection: Matthew Lowton – 4/1 Unibet – 0.5 units
Double: Matthew Lowton and Joel Ward – 25/1- William Hill – 0.25units
Game: Tottenham vs Leeds
When: Sunday 21st November- 16:30
Referee: Andre Marriner
New manager Antonio Conte will be hoping for a debut home league win against a faltering Leeds side.
In Conte’s first Premier League game away at Everton, Sergio Regulión was booked, and I am backing the Spaniard to repeat the feat against Marcelo Bielsa’s side.
He averages 0.7 fouls per Premier League game this season, picking up 1 booking. This is an article of one-trick-pony bets as the main reason for this selection is his opponent- Raphinha. The Brazilian wizard has started this season in fine form. He has been fouled 1.3 times per game and has drawn an impressive 7 yellow cards from opponents this season.
Referee Andre Marriner is an official I normally associate with being lenient after seeing some of the fouls he’s let go in previous seasons. However, it appears he has attended Mike Dean’s yellow card class during the summer, as he is averaging a league high 5.28 cards per game this season.
Selection: Sergio Reguilon – 5/1 Unibet – 0.5 units
Treble: Sergio Regulion, Kalvin Phillips and Ben Davies – 60/1- Bet 365 – 0.25 units
Game: Sheffield United vs Coventry
When: Saturday 20th November- 12:30
Referee: Michael Salisbury
Onto the best league in the world now- the Sky Bet Championship. Bramall Lane plays host to Sheffield United vs high-flying Coventry.
John Fleck has picked up 5 yellow cards in 21 games in all competitions this season. The passionate Scot has averaged 1 foul per game so far. Whilst he can be a cynical player, he plays with his heart on his sleeve, and this can sometimes get the best of him. He’s facing a side he made over 150 appearances for, so will be determined to have an impact on the game.
Coming up against him is Callum O’Hare. He not only shares a fondness for headbands with Jack Grealish, but they also both share a love for being fouled, with O’Hare being fouled an average of 2.9 times per game.
Gustavo Hamer is a walking yellow card magnet, picking up 7 cautions in 16 games this season, but falls just short of my 3/1 threshold to back officially as a single.
Michael Salisbury oversees this game. He ranks third out of the 12 Championship officials this weekend for cards given (4.28). With a big crowd from both sides expected- I can see cards flying in Yorkshire.
Selection: John Fleck – 4/1 Bet 365 – 0.5 units
Double: John Fleck and Gustavo Hamer – 18/1 Bet 365 – 0.5units
Game: Derby vs Bournemouth
When: Sunday 21st November 12:00
Referee: Gavin Ward
Derby. Home of Derby County, cheap beer and most importantly, me! Bournemouth have the pleasure of visiting Pride Park for a midday Sunday kick off.
This game looks good for cards but picking which player will get carded has been a minefield. Gavin Kilkenny and Leif Davies are two standouts for different reasons but as I am unsure if they play or not, Ryan Christie is my pick.
Amazingly, Christie has already featured in 27 games this season, with the Scottish winger picking up 4 cautions. For Bournemouth, Christie averages 1.3 fouls per game, receiving 1 yellow card. He is a tireless worker and tracks back to help Jack Stacey at right back. Lee Buchanan will be playing left back, with the youngster drawing 1.1 fouls per game.
Referee Gavin Ward tops this week’s Championship referees with 4.46 cards per game.
Selection: Ryan Christie – 6/1 Bet 365 – 0.5 units
Double: Ryan Christie and Ravel Morrison – 22/1 William Hill – 0.25 units
Finally, for those of you looking to pay for a trip to Vegas this weekend why not stick 0.1 units on the Sheffield United and Aston Villa “Double/Double” which pays 778/1 with Bet 365.
Good luck if you’re tailing – here’s hoping all those aforementioned players and referees are in foul moods come their respective kick offs!
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