This League One season intrigues me greatly. I feel there are multiple ‘mini leagues.’ I think less than 10 points will separate 1st from 5th so fine margins will decide who goes up automatically and who will have to settle for playoffs. Then I reckon 6th-9th will all be vying for the last playoff spot until the final day. 10th-13th have talented squads, but not enough to challenge for playoffs but will be clear of any relegation. Finally, anyone from 14th down to 24th can be relegated in my eyes. So join me in attempting to decipher one of the toughest leagues to predict in world football.
- Sheffield Wednesday
Flying high in League One I have the Owls. After a strong end to the 21/22 campaign under Darren Moore, Wednesday were defeated in the Playoff Semi-Finals by Sunderland. However, I believe they will avoid heartbreak this year and win the whole thing.
Darren Moore has shown glimpses of his managerial expertise in brief spells at West Brom and Doncaster and will be hoping to push on at Hillsborough. Having cultivated a strong dressing-room atmosphere at the club and implemented his style of play, he now needs the players to add to this, and I have been impressed with recruitment thus far. Moore has also successfully shifted big earners such as Nathaniel Mendez-Laing, Chey Dunkley, Sam Hutchinson and Saido Berahino off the wage bill. Massimo Luongo will be big a miss, but an arguable upgrade in Will Vaulks has been signed from Cardiff. Vaulks, an ex Rotherham midfielder will fill the big hole left by the Aussie. And he wasn’t the only ex Rotherham player signed. Michael Ihiekwe and 19 goal striker Michael Smith also arrive from the Millers, further strengthening the Owls. Ben Heneghan arrives with League 1 pedigree from AFC Wimbeldon, whilst last season’s leading League One clean sheet keeper David Stockdale arrives from Wycombe. The signings of Akin Famewo, Heneghan and Ihekwe in particular are crucial, as Harlee Dean returning to Birmingham after his loan spell is a big blow. Reece James (no not that one) is an impressive loan signing, as is the permanent signing of Tyreeq Bakinson from Bristol City. The 23-year-old provides much needed energy and dynamism to the midfield. Cameron Dawson & David Stockdale will be competing to replace another loan player returning to their parent club in Bailey Peacock-Farrell.
With players such as Lee Gregory, Barry Bannan and Josh Windass added to the mix, all players far too good for League One, and a squad full of talent and hard work, I see a very successful season in South Yorkshire.
Bet Rationale
As alluded to earlier- Wednesday have a top squad. Gregory finished 8th top scorer with 16 goals. However, if you look at those who finished above him, Gregory will fancy his chances this year. Will Keane, Ross Stewart and Scott Twine are all now in the Championship. Alfie May and Cole Stockon had freak seasons, who knows if they will repeat it. Matty Taylor is a threat as always as is Gregory’s new team mate Michael Smith. I think the 14/1 for Gregory top scorer is a nice price and one worth taking.
BET: Lee Gregory top scorer- 14/1 Bet 365
- Bolton
Perhaps surprisingly, in 2nd place, I have Bolton. Ian Evatt is embarking on his third season as Bolton manager after guiding Wanderers to promotion then a 9th place League One finish.
Bolton had a slow start to the season which ultimately meant they fell short of the playoffs. This was despite only losing 3 of their last 22 matches, including going unbeaten in the last 8. The January signings were a big reason for this. Strikers Dion Charles and Jon Dadi Bodvarsson scored 15 goals between them since singing in the winter window. Kieran Sadlier added 4 from out wide, whilst Aaron Morley and Kyle Dempsey added more quality in midfield. James Trafford has also signed again on loan after an impressive initial stint.
This summer window has been all about improving a defence that conceded 57 goals. Jack Iredale arrives after rejecting a new contract at Cambridge and will have healthy competition with Declan John for the left back berth. The depth is equally as impressive at right-back with Liverpool youngster Connor Bradley joining on loan to rotate with Gethin Jones. The latest signing is 23-year-old Northern Irish centre back Eoin Toal from Derry. Ricardo Santos, Will Aimson, George Johnston and Eoin Toal are 4 extremely strong centre back options to choose from.
The midfield also has nice balance, with the tough-tackling Mj Williams, experienced Kieran Lee, creative Josh Sheehan and midfield conductor Aaron Morley. Lloyd Isgrove, Oladapo Afolayan and Kieran Sadlier provide goals and creativity out wide, with Sadlier capable of playing wing-back. Wide midfield is perhaps an area Bolton may look to strengthen as they are looking a little light.
Up front, Dion Charles, Amadou Bakayaoko and Jon Dadi Bodvarsson all have their respective strengths and are capable of bagging at least 10 goals each.
This Bolton side is littered with quality and goals. They have 3 strikers all capable of reaching double digits for goals, as well as Sadlier, Isgrove and Sheehan chipping in. Santos is also a threat from set-pieces. Bolton’s 2022 form showed how good they can be and I am backing them to continue this season in a similar vein. Before writing this article, I had Bolton penned in for the playoffs but I’ve convinced myself they are getting autos. All aboard the HMS piss the league.
Bet rationale :
Charles only scored 8 goals last season, but with a full pre season and in an attacking Bolton side I fancy him to kick on. His 8 goals came in 23 Bolton appearances so with a full season I would back him to get over 20, especially given he scored 19 in the season before with Accrington. Wanderers had 2 players who reached double figures (Bakayoko and Afolayan). Obviously, I am backing Charles to reach double figures too, as well as Bodvarsson. Even though the Icelandic striker has never reached 10 goals in a season, his 7 goals in 21 for Bolton last season is encouraging. Kieran Sadlier reached 11 goals in the only season in England he played more than 20 games in. Josh Sheehan and Kieran Lee I predict will score 10 between them. Basically, there is goals all over this Bolton side, as well as an attacking manager so 10/1 to be the league’s top scorers is a nice price.
BET: Dion Charles top scorer 20/1 Bet 365
Sheffield Wednesday and Bolton Dual Forecast 20/1 Sky Bet
Bolton top goalscorer 10/1 Sky Bet
- Ipswich
The pre-season favourites (yet again!) are Ipswich. After missing out on play-offs last year, the Tractor Boys are still optimistic ahead of this season. With Kieran Mckenna moulding his squad with his first pre-season, Ipswich will fancy their chances of promotion.
In terms of incomings, the unproven Tyreece John-Jules arrives for the season after an injury-ravaged season at Sheffield Wednesday. Joining him up-front is Freddie Ladapo, having signed from recently promoted Rotherham. Tenacious ball-winning midfielder Dominic Ball will add steel to the side after joining from QPR. A duo of Sam Morsy and Dominic Ball is a midfield that will rarely lose a battle. Marcus Harness is the creative spark missing from the Ipswich midfield. Finally, Leif Davis has joined on a permanent from Leeds- a real coup for this level. Greg Leigh has switched from Morecambe to Ipswich, adding competition for the young left back . The East-Anglian side are blessed with talent all over the pitch- including Wes Burns, Sam Morsy & the towering Christian Walton in goal.
With Ipswich’s recruitment impressive thus far, and money still in the bank, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Tractor boys purring at the top end of the table.
BET: Ipswich and Wednesday top 6- evens
- Peterborough
Just missing out on automatic promotion I have recently relegated Peterbrough.
At the time of writing, Peterborough are yet to lose any key players. Ronnie Edwards & Jonson Clarke-Harris the two in particular they would like to keep. Despite their relegation, I am a big fan of this Peterborough squad. The previously mentioned Ronnie Edwards is a Rolls Royce of a defender, destined for the Premier League. He excels next to Josh Knight, another excellent ball player. The tenacious Jeando Fuchs will likely be joined in central midfield by Ben Thompson.
They will have pace and creativity in abundance on the wings, with Joe Ward, Kwame Poku, Harrison Burrows and Joel Randall being joined by the newly acquired David Abijoye from Sutton. Sammie Szmodics *** is a creative machine who will be licking his lips at the Posh’ attacking options. 31 goal golden boot and League One player of the season Clarke-Harris is still amongst their ranks and will be backed up by energetic presser Jack Marriott and young talent Ricky Jade-Jones.
A young squad, mixed with quality players and savvy recruitment, don’t rule Peterborough out!
BET: Top relegated 11/8 Sky bet
- MK Dons
Despite losing their two best players in Scott Twine and Harry Darling, I am still backing MK Dons for 5th position.
To lose the best player in the league who contributed towards 33 goals would be a huge blow for anyone. But MK Dons are used to losing talent. Dele Alli and Matt O’Riley are two examples that spring to mind. Harry Darling and David Kasamu have also moved onto the Championship. However, the Dons recruitment is one of the best in the country and they have brought in suitable replacements.
In goal, Jamie Cumming returns on loan from Chelsea after looking assured in his last spell in Buckinghamshire. Fellow Chelsea youngster Henry Lawrence joins him at the Stadium MK. Jack Tucker is a similar profile to the departed Harry Darling and arrives from Gillingham as his replacement. In midfield, Ethan Robson is back, this time permanently. The experienced midfielder Bradley Johnson drops down a league, whereas the exciting Conor Grant steps up a league after leaving Rochdale. Grant is a player to excite fans and change a game in an instant. If he polishes up his final ball, he will be MK Dons next big money sale. Pete Winkleman has also sent his scouts to Ireland. Midfield orchestrator Dawson Devoy joins from Bohemians, with skilful winger Darragh Burns coming in from St Pats. Nathan Holland and the on-loan Louie Barry provide pace and creativity on the wing, whereas young striker Matt Dennis arrives on a permanent from Norwich after an impressive loan spell at Southend. Will Grigg also returns to the club where he has had two successful loan spells in the past.
Much has been made of MK losing 3 key players, but Tucker is a sensible Darling replacement whereas Devoy will fill the Kasamu shaped hole in midfield. However, no matter who they sign, it will be hard for anyone to replicate Scott Twine’s numbers and this I feel is the difference between autos and playoffs.
Bet Rationale:
The ‘South East’ category is between MK Dons, Oxford and Wycombe and the rationale is pretty simple really. I think MK dons will finish higher than Wycombe and Oxford! For an outrageous 150/1 top scorer e/w pick I have Matt Dennis. He’s never been a prolific goal scorer at senior level but the signs of a good player is definitely there. He can also play out wide which definitely helps his game time. Mo Eisa looks to be out for a long time and Will Grigg is getting older so can’t start every week. If Dennis grabs the early opportunity given to him, he will become a mainstay in an attacking team I think finish really high. Matty Stevens 2.0?
BET: Top south east 11/8 SKY BET
Dennis Top Scorer 150/1 EW Bet 365
Bolton Mk Dons Peterborough and Sheffield Wednesday top 6 12/1 sky bet
- Derby
Derby has endured a torrid couple of years and now find themselves in League One. All the off-field mess seems to be sorted so the Rams can now focus on charging through the leagues.
Manager Wayne Rooney has departed to the MLS, leaving assistant Liam Rosenior in charge. Rosenior is an incredibly astute man and an elegant speaker, so I have no doubts about him as a manager. Derby has lost a host of players, so it is a great relief that club captain Curtis Davies has re-signed. He, as well as Jason Knight, Eiran Cashin, Louie Sibley, Richard Stearman, Jack Stretton, Max Bird and Krystian Bielek are the sole survivors from last season’s squad.
The recruitment plan so far seems to be signing experienced heads first and foremost and then fill the squad with youngsters. 7 players over the age of 30 have been signed. Joe Wildsmith looks set for the number one shirt after signing from Sheffield Wednesday. Welsh international James Chester will provide a solid partnership with Davies. The energetic Korey Smith and midfield maestro Conor Hourihane have dropped down a league to join the Derby project. Nathaniel Mendez-Laing will look to provide a spark on the wing after a tough couple of seasons. Tom Barkhuizen arrives looking to provide goals from the flanks. Irish international James Collins had been scoring goals for fun in the football league before an unsuccessful spell with Cardiff. Rolls-Royce striker David Mcgoldrick should look a class above in the third division. Young right-back Kwaku Oduroh joins after his release from Man City, alongside ball-playing centre half Haydon Roberts on loan from Brighton.
On paper, this is a very strong team that should look comfortable. However, when you delve deeper into the signings, how many are that impressive? Conor Hourihane has been a key man in two playoff-achieving teams in the last couple of seasons and will be fantastic in this league. David Mcgoldrick is a classy striker who oozes class. Other than these two, I have my doubts. James Collins has had a couple of seasons with next to no impact. Tom Barlhuizen is a player with an abundance of talent but also is very injury prone. Mendez-Laing has struggled since his release from Cardiff, but is a very lively winger on his day. James Chester has endured a torrid couple of years at Stoke and struggles immensely against pace. Whilst Curtis Davies is a superb centre back and too good for this level, he also lacks pace due to his age so Derby may come unstuck in transition. Furthermore, such a large turnover will mean the squad needs time to gel. I also have question marks over goalkeeper Joe Wildsmith and think Derby will need to replace him. As it stands, I do not think Derby have enough for the playoffs, but the 6th place prediction is based on the fact that they still have the cash to spend and that I am a big fan of Liam Rosenior. If you offered a Derby fan a League One playoff spot this time 3 months ago, they would’ve snapped your hand off, and I feel this is what they may have to settle for.
- Barnsley
Looking to bounce back to the Championship at the first attempt will be Barnsley. After reaching the Championship Play Off semi-finals in 2020/2021, the Tykes endured a torrid 2021/22 season, finishing rock bottom. Michael Duff has been appointed manager, swapping Gloucestershire for South Yorkshire.
Despite a short managerial career so far, Duff has impressed. Winning the League Two manager of the year award after guiding the Robins to an unlikely promotion, he managed to lead Cheltenham to their highest ever finish- 15th. Duff has continued Barnsley’s recruitment strategy of signing young players to make an impact in the first team.
Highly rated attacking midfielder Luca Connell arrives from Celtic, as well as centre-backs Robbie Cundy and Conor McCarthy arriving from Bristol City and St Mirren respectively, perhaps to prepare for the inevitable sales of Michael Helik and/or Mads Anderson. The departures of strike partnership Carlton Morris and Cauley Woodwrow could potentially leave The Tykes short of attacking quality. James Norwood could be the man to solve the goalscoring issues, but he is not a player to rely on to be fit all season, so adequate back up is needed. Duff also favours a 3-5-2 but does not have the players in attack to start the season in this shape. The most impressive signing of the Duff era so far is that of Nicky Cadden, with the Scottish wing back scoring 6 goals and laying on 12 assists last season with Forest Green. He fits perfectly into Duff’s tactics.
Despite a few more sales expected, Barnsley still have a talented squad and an impressive manager at the helm, so I expect them to be in and around the playoff places, but they may fall just short.
- Wycombe
You know what you are going to get with Gareth Ainsworth and Wycombe. Hard working, hard to beat and dogged performances.
17 goal striker Sam Vokes will be hoping to continue his impact on and off the pitch. The experience of him, Gareth Mcleary and Joe Jacobson were crucial in guiding the Chairboys to a playoff final, where they ultimately fell short due to a David Stockdale blunder.
I am a big fan of Anis Mehmeti, David Wheeler and Brandon Hanlan in attacking areas. With Vokes thriving on their creativity, Wycombe will score more goals than they are usually prone too.
Ainsworth prides himself on defensive solidity and may have lost a bit of that with Anthony Stewart departing. However, Jason McCarthy, Ryan Tafazolli and Joe Jacobson are proven juggernauts at this level. Wycombe also have yet to sign a new goalkeeper, so will be against it early doors.
This is an aging squad and I think Ainsworth and his backroom team are aware of this, hence the introduction of the new B team. Wycombe won’t dominate games but certainly know how to not lose, hence the 8th place pick.
- Oxford
Oxford have finished in the top half in five of their last six seasons, finishing in the playoff places in two of these. Yet here they are- still in League One, and I am backing the trend to continue.
I originally had them down for 7th but their lack of business early on has moved them down to 9th in my predictions. Key man Luke Mcnally has also departed to Burnley- a big loss. He has been replaced by Stuart Findlay of Philadelphia and will look to form a very reliable partnership in defence with Elliot Moore. Mark Sykes has been replaced by former Wigan man Yanic Wildschut. The Belgian winger is a tricky and direct winger and adds much needed depth on the flanks. Versatile defender Ciaron Brown re-signs from Cardiff, whilst Ed Mcginty (22) is an intriguing but promising pick-up from Sligo Rovers in goal. Josh Murphy- once an £11m player has also signed, hoping to reinvigorate a declining career.
Upfront, Matty Taylor will be hoping to replicate his 20-goal season. The additions of Murphy and Wildschut, alongside attackers already amongst the ranks such as Billy Bodin, James Henry and Marcus Browne should mean Taylor is well adversed to do so. Cameron Brannagan and Alex Gorrin will compete for their spots in midfield with Marcus Mcguane. This midfield is one of the best in the league, providing Brannagan stays, Brannagan also scored 11 goals last season, so his goals are a big reason Oxford do well.
This Oxford squad is one I like and last seasons joint top scorers with Wigan, with 82 goals. It is a squad I feel lacks depth. If the U’s add 3 or 4 more signings, they may feel a playoff push is plausible.
- Charlton
Charlton seem to be sleep-walking to the stagnating stage in League One and it is crucial they avoid this, as Portsmouth have shown how hard of a division League One is to get out of.
I know the Addicks are only approaching their third season back in League One, but they failed to finish in the play-offs both times, finishing 7th and then a disappointing 13th. Charlton weren’t a fun team to support last season, with mid-table mediocrity pretty much confirmed by January. However, it is hoped that this season will be different. Thomas Sandgaard decided Ben Garner was the man to take the club forward, with the 42-year-old leaving his post at Swindon for South-East London.
Garner has certainly wasted no time in raiding his old club, bringing 3 players with him from Swindon. Goalscoring midfielder Jack Payne, League 2 goalkeeper of the season Jojo Wollacott & wing back Mandela Egbo, have all swapped the County Ground for the Valley. Versatile full-back Steven Sessengon arrives on loan from Fulham after an impressive loan spell at Plymouth. Eoghan O’Connell has also joined from Rochdale, with the dominant centre-back a key reason why the Greater Manchester club survived relegation. Conor Mcgrandles comes in from Lincoln, with his skillset that of a top League One player. Garner may have a selection headache in midfield with Fraser, Mcgrandles, Payne, Forster-Caskey, Dobson, Gilbey and Morgan all vying for places.
Fan-Favourite Chucks Aneke was brought back in January, impressing in his brief stints. He is not a player to rely on to play a full 90, so the onus will be on Jayden Stockley to provide the goals. Miles Leaburn is a youngster who has impressed during pre-season, so it will be interesting if Garner trusts him this season. Creativity will come from the tricky Corey Blackett Taylor at wing back. Scott Fraser is a player who excelled at Mk Dons but failed to find his feet at Ipswich and now Charlton. If it clicks for the Scotsman, he could be key for the Addicks. Another player who is being given a second chance is Charlie Kirk after a disappointing start after arriving from Crewe.
Charlton is putting in the building blocks of a team capable of challenging higher up the league but are perhaps a couple of signings short just yet.
Betting Rationale
Charlton scored 55 goals last season, managed by a defensive Nigel Adkins and an inexperienced Jonnie Jackson. Ben Garner is the new man and managed Swindon to the playoffs and the top scoring team- with 77 goals. He brings an attacking mentality and with quality strikers such as Chucks Aneke and Jayden Stockley aswell as creative players such as Scott Fraser and Charlie Kirk, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Charlton add 10 goals from their total last season.
BET: Season match bet vs Portsmouth- 2,25- Bet 365
Charlton to score 65+ goals- 6/4 sky bet
- Plymouth
After a stellar start to the 2021/22 season, Ryan Lowe was poached by Preston. Steven Schumacer was appointed from within as his successor. Argyle inevitably dropped off, just missing out on the playoffs but they are still a side that impressed me, so it is mightily disappointing I have to put them 11th.
In Michael Cooper, Plymouth have one of the most sought after goalkeepers in England, with the young keeper epitomising a modern-day shot-stopper. Panucthe Camara announced his desire to leave, leaving the Pilgrims no choice but to transfer list the want away Guinea-Bissau midfielder. However, he is yet to find a new club. Upfront, Ryan Hardie and Luke Jephcott are strikers both capable of scoring 15+ in a season and will be key men again. Hardie has looked clinical in pre-season so could be in for a big season. Odds of 25/1 for top scorer with Bet 365 looks worth a cheeky e/w bet.
Not many signings have been needed at Home Park as Argyle are a settled side. The signings that have come in are shrewd acquisitions. Matt Butcher is a solid addition in midfield from Accringrton. Finn Azzaz excelled last year at Newport and provides creativity from midfield. Bali Mumba impressed in his few games for Sunderland, and the versatile youngster arrives on loan from Norwich. Morgan Whittaker on loan from Swansea and Mickel Miller on a free from Rotherham add depth and quality to the wing.
Plymouth are a solid team who I really rate, but I think they will finish just off the playoffs.
BET: Plymouth Argyle top South west team 13/10 UNIBET (Credit Matt Kirby for the find)
- Portsmouth
The final team in the top half is Portsmouth. The Cowley brothers may not play the most attractive football, but it is certainly effective.
The vibes I have got from this summer window is that Portsmouth are trying to trim the wage bill and make the most of limited resources.. Aidan O’Brien also rejected the offer of a new contract to join Shrewsbury, a worrying sign for Pompey fans. The deal that saw Marcuss Harness depart to Ipswich is a bewildering one.
In terms of incomings, Joe Piggott on a season-long loan deal from Ipswich could prove clever business if he regains his AFC Wimbledon form that saw the Pig score 20 goals in his final season. Clinical striker Colby Bishop arrives from Accrington, as-well as highly rated Tottenham striker Dane Scarlett so Portsmouth potentially have three 20-goal-a-season strikers amongst their ranks. Ronan Curtis is a player that has always impressed me when I’ve seen him, but the Irishman struggles for consistency. Perhaps a new formed strike partnership will allow Curtis to find more consistency and prove himself to be one of the most technically gifted players in the league. Piggott and Bishop are both players who excel at bringing others into the game and this could suit Curtis to a T.
Portsmouth were blessed to have Irish International Gavin Bazanu between the sticks last season, but Man City sold him to arch rivals Southampton, so a replacement is needed. Josh Griffiths arrives on loan from West Brom and Joshua Oluwatemi joins from Tottenham, meaning Cowley has two young keepers to work with. Experience has been added, with 31 year old midfielder Marlon Pack and 34 year old centre back Michael Morrison joining on frees. Joe Rafferty (28) joins from Preston.
Due to the financial constraints at play, I think Portsmouth may have to settle for an unspectacular 12th place finish
- Shrewsbury
This seasons dark horses for me. Steve Cotteril has a wealth of managerial experience, even winning the League One title with Bristol City in 2015. He has wasted no time in shaping his squad after leading Salop to a respectable 18th placed finish last season.
Shaun Whalley (Accrington), David Davis (Forest Green) and Josh Vela (Fleetwood) have all departed for fellow League One clubs, whilst Ethan Ebanks-Landell has joined Rochdale. Chey Dunkley arrives after a disappointing season with Sheffield Wednesday, but comes with pedigree after impressing at Oxford and Wigan. Taylor Moore joins him at centre-back after a solid loan spell in Scotland with Hearts. With Cotterill likely to favour a 3-5-2 again, it will be interesting to see how he deals with Pennington, Flanagan, Moore and Dunkley. Julien Da Costa comes in on loan from Coventry, providing depth for the indispensable Elliot Bennett. The 33 year-old’s experience and versatility will be key for Shrewsbury. Jordan Shipley arrives on a free from Coventry, upgrading the hole left by Vela. Aidan O’Brien rejected a contract offer from Portsmouth to sign for Shrewsbury, a show of their ambition and current pull under Cotterill. 13 goal striker Daniel Udoh will only improve and will be crucial for Salop this season. 6’5 teen striker Tom Bloxham had his breakthrough season and will also be used sporadically.
Shrewsbury have a better team than given credit for and with a top manager like Cotterill in charge, I expect them to be pushing the top half as opposed to fighting relegation.
- Lincoln
After a regressive season for the Imps finishing 17th they will look to improve on that position this season. Manager Michael Appleton has departed for Blackpool, so it will be interesting to see what new manager Mark Kennedy is capable of.
Carl Rushworth signs on loan from Brighton after winning Walsall’s young player of the season. The 21 year old goalkeeper is highly thought of at the Seagulls, even having Barcelona scouts watching him when on loan at non-league Worthing. Paudie O’Connor signs on a free from Bradford, augmenting a defence already including ex Man-United defender Regan Poole. The extremely talented defender staying (at the time of writing) is tremendous news for Imps fans, as he is a player capable of a move up a division.
In midfield, Teddy Bishop is a silky midfielder, orchestrating play from deep. Max Sanders hasn’t seemed to push on after his move from Brighton, but perhaps the chance to impress the new manager will help Sanders tap into his undoubted potential. The departure of Conor Mcgrandles to Charlton is a blow, but Lincoln are well stacked in the centre of the park.
Kennedy has brought Danny Mandriou in from Ireland, with the talented attacker coming with a sizeable reputation and goal tally. Anthony Scully is a player in a rich vein of form and is a joy to watch. Mandriou and Scully are spectacular attacking options to have. However, Lincoln’s big gaping hole will be an out and out number 9, capable of scoring 20 goals. Tom Hopper has goals in his locker but has fitness problems. The lack of striker may well be the difference between bottom and top half at Sincil Bank.
- Fleetwood
Losing Brad Halliday to Bradford and key man in midfield Callum Camps to Stockport are massive blows, but there is still lots to like about this Fleetwood side.
Defender Shaun Rooney joins after 4 impressive years in Scotland, including scoring the winner in two cup finals in the same season. Josh Earl arrives at left back. Despite being only 23 years old, he has made over 100 senior appearances. Josh Vela is a tidy pick up from Shrewsbury having amassed close to 250 appearances at this level, even winning a Shrewsbury player of the season award.
However, the signings of Brendon Wiredu and Promise Omochere are the two that stand out the most. Wiredu is a dynamic box-to-box midfielder who joins from Colchester after being linked with a host of clubs in the EFL. At 22, he still has a lot of room to grow into an even better player, so it is incredible business from Scott Brown to convince Wiredu to come to Highbury. Promise Omochere (21) is another young player with room to grow. The 6’3 powerful striker will run all game. Possessing real pace, power and explosiveness, Omochere is a handful to deal with, as shown many times in a Bohemians shirt. As expected, he is still a little raw, but if he improves on certain aspects of his game, Fleetwood can make a lot of profit on the signing. Callum Morton is also a real coup on a permanent, a striker who may lack the finishing touch but will run for 90 minutes.
The signings made so far are all promising, adding to an accomplished core of players already at the club. The experienced Tom Clarke and Toto Nsiala will provide a solid defensive partnership, with the creative Danny Andrew to the left and the reliable Shaun Rooney on the right. It remains to be seen what formation Scott Brown will favour at Fleetwood, but if he opts with a 4-3-3, a midfield of Vela, Wiredu and Daniel Batty is perfectly balanced. Brown also has one of the most exciting players in the league at his disposal in Paddy Lane. The 21 year old contributed to 13 goals last season and has been linked with moves away. Paddy Lane, Joe Garner, Ellis Harrison, Promise Omochere, Callum Morton, Shayden Morris and Gerard Garner provide an array of attacking talent to choose from.
Fleetwood are building an exciting side that has perhaps gone under the radar. I feel they are lacking in depth and quality in certain areas to make a challenge for the top half, but should be safe from relegation, providing Scott Brown is an adequate manager. His first role will be to improve on a defence that conceded 82 goals last season and the new contract to Nsiala added to the signings of Rooney and Earl show that Brown sees it as a priority
- Exeter
Embarking on their first League One season since 2011 is Exeter. Many pundits have them down for relegation, but I believe the Grecians have enough to survive,
Matt Taylor was able to stamp his authority on the side and get them playing the exact brand of football he wanted. They matched Forest Green stride for stride throughout the season, only missing out on the title on the final day.
Exeter are renowned for their youth development, with Ethan Ampadu and Ollie Watkins securing big moves in recent years. They may be relying on that same youth system again, with only 1 new face at St James Park thus far.
What they do have is a talented group of players and a promising manager. At full-back, Jack Sparkes and Josh Key are prevalent figures in the attacking half, both having been linked with clubs up the pyramid in the past. Cheick Diabate has recently emerged as a top prospect, with the powerful defender looking mature behind his years. Many a neutral were skeptic about the signing of midfielder Timothee Dieng after he suffered back-to-back relegations with Southend. However, the 30 year old has been a colossus figure in Taylor’s midfield and his leadership qualities have been imperative in stewarding this young crop of players. Matt Jay has an almost Lampard-esque natural knack for arriving late in the box to score, shown by his 32 goals in the last 2 seasons. ArchIe Collins is a player developing nicely, whereas Sam Nombe has all the physical attributes of a top striker. When he starts finding the back of the net on a more consistent basis, he will turn into a very complete striker. Jevani Brown is also a top talent, not afraid to take a player on, whilst also chipping in with goals.
The signing of 6’6 goalkeeper Jamal Blackman is exactly what was needed. An experienced player who has shown tremendous ability during various loan spells throughout his career.
As mentioned, this is a young side with an inexperienced manager and minimal new signings, but I have faith in this youthful crop of players to give League One a good go and surprise many people.
BET: League One top promoted 7/2 SKY BET
- Bristol Rovers
A dramatic final day 7-0 win over basement club Scunthorpe meant that Bristol Rovers secured promotion back to League One at the first time of asking.
After an indifferent start to the season, it seemed to be a season heading towards bottom half mediocrity. But a fine run of form towards the end of the campaign meant the Gas finished third. This momentum will be crucial in surviving relegation.
Another big reason for the upturn in form was the loan signing of Elliot Anderson from Newcastle. The Geordie winger transformed Rovers in an attacking sense, contributing 8 goals in 21 games.
John Maquis was once a clinical striker who teams could rely on to win them games, but he has seemed to lose this over the last few years. He will be hoping a change of environment and play-style will help get the best out of him. James Gibbons provides energy and determination at right wing back after arriving from Port Vale. Jordan Rossiter is a tenacious midfielder in the mould of the manager he is once again reunited with. Anthony Evans signing a new contract will encourage supporters at the Memorial Ground.
With momentum from last season still prevalent, a settled side and a couple of nice acquisitions, Bristol Rovers should survive the drop.
- Accrington
Accrington Stanley seem to be a team that have made League One their home, embarking in their 6th straight season in the third tier. All of these have been under the stewardship of club legend John Coleman, who will be in the dugout again, and I feel he is in for his most challenging season yet.
After a very impressive and comfortable 11th place finish last season, Stanley look in worse shape going into this campaign. Conceding 80 goals last season, Accrington had the worst defensive record in the top half by a distance. This total could’ve been much higher if it weren’t for the appropriately named goalkeeper Toby Savin. The young shot-stopper has impressed many and Coleman has a task on his hand keeping hold of the keeper. Perhaps the strongest player in this defence was 6’5 giant of a centre back Ross Sykes, who has unfortunately departed to Union St Gillose in Belgium. Accrington conceded the most goals in the league from open play, being a bit more solid from defending set pieces, so the departure of such a towering centre back is bound to hurt. Young 6’5 centre back Jay Rich- Baghuelou, signed from Crystal Palace in January is a fantastic ball player who will look to replace Skyes internally.
Because of this poor defensive record, Accie relied on a potent attacking trio of Dion Charles, Colby Bishop and Sean Mcconville. Bishop and Charles have proved a clinical strike partnership over the years. Charles managed to attract the attention of Bolton in January, whereas Bishop has been snapped up by Portsmouth. Mcconvile was the leagues leading assist maker last season, laying on 17 assists for his team mates. His creativity will be imperative again this season to drag Accrington to safety.
Ethan Hamilton is a player who keeps getting better and will be a key player for Accrington this season, especially because of the departure of Matt Butcher to Plymouth. Tommy Leigh is a fantastic prospect and impressed massively in his first professional season. He is an all rounded midfielder who contributed 10 goals and assists last season. One more big season out of him and he could be in for a big money move.
If Accrington didn’t have the continuity factor of a tight knit squad and John Coleman at the helm, I would have them down for relegation but I feel this fighting spirit that has been developed over the years will be enough to see them over the line.
- Cambridge
I’ve repeated it so often in this article, but continuity is key. Cambridge have a settled squad and a highly talented manager- this will be the key to survival despite arguably a bottom 4 squad on paper.
The loss of Jack Iredale at left back to Bolton will be a hard one to take.
Zeno Ibsen Rossi from Bournemouth is a real coup at centre-back. At 6’4 he has all the tools to be aerially dominant in both boxes. Him and Juril Okedina will provide solid protection for goalkeeper Dimitar Mitov. Joe Ironside and Sam Smith are talented goalscorer and work hard off the ball.
They have a squad littered with reliable players such as Adam May, Paul Digby and captain Greg Taylor.
Cambridge won’t set the world alight, but should have enough to survive, especially if Ironside and Smith can replicate the 28 goals scored between them.
- Port Vale
After winning the League 2 playoffs, I am backing Port Vale to survive their first season back in League One by the skin of their teeth.
The Valiants have a working structure in place, which helps continuity and to build momentum. When Daryll Clarke suffered the personal tragic news last year, assistant Andy Crosby stepped in and continued with the magnificent work Clarke has done. He has a system (3-5-2) that works and that the players understand. The backline is one I am a big fan of, in particular Nathan Smith. Ben Garrity, Tom Pett and captain Tom Conlon are 3 fantastic midfielder options, all with majestic passing ability. Funsu Ojo will also add to the depth here. Right wing back James Gibbons departing for Bristol Rovers would’ve been a blow, but the versatile Gavin Massey will look to plug the gap after signing from Wigan. Thierry Small (17) arrives on loan from Southampton to fill the left back void. He is a player I am very excited about this season.
Vale badly need strikers. At the moment they only have two at the club in James Wilson and Jamie Proctor. Wilson is also injury prone so is not a striker Clarke will want to rely on all season. You feel Port Vale will need at least two strikers through the door- something I am trusting them to do. If these strikers aren’t signed, the Valiants may be looking at an instant return to League 2.
- Morecambe
After leaving Morecambe after a miraculous promotion, Derek Adams returned to a struggling Shrimps 6 months later to help them to survival at a canter. He may fall just short of this achievement this time around.
Another reason for survival was the 23 goals of Cole Stockton. He is not only a serial goal-scorer, he possesses fantastic ability to bring others into play. Greg Leigh will be hard to replace, with the left back a very solid defender. Ryan Cooney on the other flank is a player who will provide a solid defensive base, as well as attacking prowess. Adams has had the bravery to transfer list 10 players- 7 of which have been present in pre-season match day squads. If Morecambe are unable to shift these players, the dressing room could become a toxic place very quickly.
In terms of incomings, Conor Ripley seems to be the new number 1 goalkeeper- a move I am not convinced with. Jenson Weir is a very competent signing on loan from Brighton. The former Wigan midfielder is an all action midfielder, box to box, capable of breaking up play and a fine eye for a pass. Caleb Watts arrives on loan from Southampton- a player highly thought of on the South Coast.
Derek Adams is a manager I rate highly and if anyone can keep Morecambe up it is him. As mentioned in the intro, I think any 4 teams from a group of 11 can go down, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see Morecambe end up nearer the top half than relegation. But unfortunately I had to pick 4 teams for the drop and Morecambe are the ones I think who will just miss out on survival.
- Forest Green
After winning the League two title playing exciting attacking football, I was very confident in Forest Green’s chances in taking League One by storm. But after the summer gutting the team has received, I am a lot more bullish about Rovers chances now.
Manager Rob Edwards has left for Watford, box-to-box midfielder Ebou Adams departs for Cardiff whereas creative wing backs Nicky Cadden and Kane Wilson have also moved onto pastures new. To make matters worse, Forest Green received no fees for these three due to the expiration of contracts. This must be massively frustrating for chairmen Dale Vince, as all 3 would’ve commanded 7-figure fees.
Replacing two starting wins backs is hard enough, let alone two who combined for 34 goal contributions. Corey O’Keefe is a marauding right-wing-back arriving from Rochdale after 10 assists The midfield has been bolstered by the signing of the experienced David Davis- so good they named him twice (well sort of). Armani Little jumps two leagues up after shining at non-league Torquay. Excitement is also building in the little hamlet of Nailsworth over the return of Reece Browne who enjoyed a very fruitful first spell at Forest Green. Whilst Adams departure is a blow, Forest Green’s midfield is arguably stronger than last season with the signings of Brown, Little and Davis.
Udoka Godwin-Mallife has the potential to follow the path of Ethan Pinnock, who is now plying his trade in the Premier League with Brentford. A good season in the third division may see the cultured ball-playing centre back command a big fee.
The main worry with the current squad will be the quality and the depth in the striker position. The best striker in the world, Matty Stevens , is still out with an ACL injury. This just leaves Jamille Matt and Josh March for the goals, neither I am convinced score enough to keep Forest Green up.
- Cheltenham
Despite a comfortable survival last campaign, Cheltenham may struggle this year.
The main reason is the departure of head coach Michael Duff who worked wonders on a shoestring budget. Dominating centre back Will Boyle has also moved up a league to Championship Huddersfield and Tom Bradbury has big shoes to fill to replace the departed juggernaut. It remains to be seen whether Bradbury is able to make the jump up two divisions.
One big plus is the retention of Alfie May (so far). The striker put up ridiculous numbers last season, scoring 23. Manager Wade Elliott will be relying on the goals of May to keep the Robins up, but even then, I worry for Cheltenham. Other than May, who may not even repeat this freak season, I can’t see where the goals come from. Dan N’Lundulu re-joins on loan from Southampton, a player I rate but I struggle to see him scoring enough to keep the Robins up. Callum Wright bagged 9 goals from midfield, but he has returned to parent club Leicester,,
Wade Elliott could well prove to be a fantastic manager but I worry about this Cheltenham side. They’ve lost one of the most promising EFL managers, a key part of a strong defence and seem to be relying on loans.
BET: Sheffield Wednesday to be promoted, Bolton and Peterborough top 6, Cheltenham and Morecambe relegated 40/1
- Burton
I can sense a troublesome season brewing for the Brewers. Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink is a man who has done terrific things in the past for this Burton side and has a massive job on his hands to steer his side to safety- a job I do not think he’s capable of doing.
Last year was a particularly weak League One in terms of relegation fodder- shown by Fleetwood staying up on 40 points. I managed to catch a couple of Burton games last season as it is local to me and they struck me as a team lacking familiarity with tactics and a side with a lack of direction. They also seem to lack that ‘stardust’ in the team that perhaps the teams above them do have.
Their recruitment thus far has been good. Callum Butcher comes from Dundee United with years of experience. Victor Adeboyejo is a striker able to stretch defences, but not one you can rely on for goals. Davis Keillor-Dunn comes in off the back of a terrific season at relegated Oldham where he scored 15 goals. Whether he can do it in the league above remains to be seen, but I have full faith he hits at least double digits. Quevin Castro is an exciting winger on loan from West Brom and gives pace and trickery to the attack- something I feel Burton lack.
A player who seemed destined for big things as a youngster but hasn’t seemed to kick on is Gassane Ahadme. It will be interesting to see how many goals-if any- the young striker scores.
As mentioned many times, it will be a very tight bottom half with fine margins. Managers being tactically flexible and having players able to win games on their own will be crucial in tight scrappy games and Burton lack this, meaning I see nothing but relegation for the Brewers.
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