Hello and welcome back to the 2nd of my 3 days of Premier League previews, lets get the boring game out of the way first…..
Game: Brighton v Wolves
When: Wednesday 15th December – 19:30
Referee: Tony Harrington
What a game we have to kick off the action (no bias attached.) A proper mid-table clash here as 11th place Brighton host 9th place Wolves in what looks like being a Wednesday stalemate.
Graham Potter will be considering dusting his boots off and giving himself a game with the state of the Seagulls current absentee list. Captain and best player Lewis Dunk, Adam Webster, Adam Lallana, Jeremey Sarmiento, Adam Lallana, Steven Alzate and Danny Welbeck are confirmed absentees through injuries. Third choice centre half Shane Duffy is suspended, Leo Trossard is a doubt and a further 3 or 4 players are said to be missing through COVID. This could mean Albion are missing up to 12 players for the visit of Wolves. Neal Maupay is rumored to be one of the COVID lay-offs, meaning an already impotent Brighton attack must go into the game with Aaron Connolly in the side, who has more points on his license than Premier League goals. What Brighton do have is an elite manager who centres his ethos around a style of play, rather than individuals, so he will try to make his way round a stricken squad. Brighton have not won in 10, but only lost twice in this period, copping 8 draws. However, the Seagulls have a fantastic mentality and drive, as shown by back-to-back last minute goals with ten men on the pitch.
This run of form would encourage most teams, but Wolves have also struggled in front of goal, scoring 1 goal in their last 6. They are also without star striker Raul Jimenez after his idiotic red card on Saturday. Yes, John Moss did indeed give a red card for what felt like the first time EVER – although it did hand the Mexican his first EPL dismissal. Bruno Lage has a team solid in defence and with an elite goalie, added to a sprinkle of flair in attack. He will have to find a way to score a goal without the 30-Year-Old Jimenez. This has 0-0 written all over it.
On to cards.
Tonight’s referee is Tony Harrington who averages 3.44 yellows per game, issuing 1 red in 9 and is making his long-awaited Premier League debut after years of climbing through the leagues, the Cleveland born official has earned his spot in the big league.
My two picks for this game are long shots. I had Marc Cucurella earmarked for a card, but I have tipped him quite a lot recently so I am going to shuffle the deck and go for someone different. Solly March. March, a timid character off the pitch, is actually averaging just shy of 2 fouls per game. Due to the aforementioned absentee list, he is expected to start. Graham Potter’s formation tends to be 4-4-2 in possession, but a 3-5-2 out of possession, so March is expected to be a wing back when Brighton don’t have the ball. The high intensity of this role means March may be caught out of position a couple of times- not ideal when facing Adama Traore. Traore is one of the hardest players to stop in the league, so March has a big task on his hands. Supporting Adama on the flank will be marauding full back Nelson Semedo, a player fouled once a game on average. Bet 365 offer odds of 7.0 for the Sussex born winger to be booked, a price I feel is generous.
The Wolves player I am backing for a card is Hwang Hee-Chan. The Korean striker isn’t known for picking up cards, never receiving more than 2 in a season. However, he ranks 3rd for fouls committed per game for Wolves (1.2PG.) He may also have to backtrack and deal with livewire Tariq Lamptey, who is fouled 1.96 times per game.
Marc Cucurella (4.50) and Rayan Ait Nouri (6.50) should be the obvious candidates for cards given their history and direct opponents, but I am feeling brave and going for the higher odds pair.
Main Fancy: Solly March – 7.0 – Bet 365
Next Best: Hee-Chan Hwang – 8.0 – Bet 365
Cover: Marc Cucurella & Rayan Ait Nouri – 4.5 & 6.5 – Bet 365
Game: Burnley v Watford
When: Wednesday 15th December – 19:30
Referee: Martin Atkinson
A relegation battle in Lancashire as Burnley welcome Watford to Turf Moor.
Sean Dyche’s side come into this game in 18th place with only one win to their name. Another summer of a low spend did see them pull off a real coup in Maxwel Cornet who has scored 5 goals so far this season. However, the Ivorian striker is a doubt for Wednesday’s clash. For a side with only 14 goals this season, his absence will be a big miss.
Watford are one place above Burnley, lingering just above the drop zone in 17th. Whilst from the outside it doesn’t seem Claudio Ranieri has changed much results wise for the Hornets, he has. The identity of the team has changed, and they finally play with a purpose. The Tinkerman is just stuck with Championship defenders and an injured Ismaila Sarr. Watford possesses an exciting attack in Josh King, Emmanuel Dennis and Joao Pedro. Dennis has provided 12 goal involvements with King 7, both will be instrumental if Watford are to stay up. This looks like another stalemate for draw specialists Burnley and a 1-1 wouldn’t surprise me.
Tonight’s referee is Martin Atkinson with an average of 2.3 yellow cards, showing 2 reds in 10 appointments.
In a game I expect a low goal count in, I was hoping for a card happy ref to spice things up. Step forward Martin Atkinson. The world’s most boring referee. In 6 of his 10 games refereed this season, Atkinson has given 2 cards or less. The ‘Atkinson bet’ is certainly a play for this match. This basically means no player to be carded and no goals. This landed last season in a match between West Brom and Newcastle. It also came agonisingly close twice, with Spurs v Everton finishing 0-1 with 1 card, and Sheffield United Vs West Ham ending 0-1 with 0 cards. The price is normally 150+ (Bet 365 has it priced at 141 via the bet builder) so it is definitely worth shopping around for the best price and investing a few pennies.
However, if you are after a player card, there are a couple of interests.
Charlie Taylor is best priced at 6.50 for a card with Bet 365. Whilst the left back doesn’t have a high foul or card count, he is likely to be up against Hernandez who was fouled on three occasions last time out.
Kiko Femenia is going to be right back for Watford. The Spaniard has received one card thus far, however, he is up against Burnley’s two most fouled players in Dwight McNeil (1.5PG) and Taylor (1.1PG.) FOUR right sided defenders have already been booked against the Clarets.
Main Fancy: Charlie Taylor – 6.50 – Bet 365
Next Best: Kiko Femenia – 7.50 – Bet 365
Game: Crystal Palace v Southampton
When: Wednesday 15th December – 19:30
Referee: Simon Hooper
South London hosts a bottom half clash as 16th place Southampton travel to Crystal Palace.
As much as it pains me to say it, I have been mightily impressed by the Eagles this season. They recruited with a clear philosophy and plan in the summer, snapping up talents like Odsonne Edouard, Marc Guehi and Michael Olise, along with experienced players Will Hughes and Joachim Anderson, as well as augmenting a stagnant midfield with the exuberant Conor Gallagher on loan. When Eberechi Eze and Olise fully gel and get back in the side, the Eagles will be a scary team to play against. I had my doubts about Patrick Vieira as a manager, but he has proved me wrong thus far. Palace’s only downfall is turning their 7 draws into wins.
Southampton are another hard team to predict. They have also drawn a whopping 7 games so far. Ralph Hasenhuttl’s side have had problems holding onto leads, as shown by letting a 1-0 victory slip to 10 men Brighton in the 98th minute. The Saints looked shaky defensively, with the backline panicking at every ball in behind, but looked dangerous on the counter with Albanian striker Armando Broja. Valentino Livramento also caused issues, bombing on from full back, as a result I expect a high scoring, end to end game between two inconsistent sides – who both love a draw.
Score Prediction: 2-2
The man in charge tonight is Simon Hooper and he is averaging 3.9 yellow cards per game.
Wilf Zaha has somehow only been booked 3 times this season. The petulant, 29-year-old winger seems to get in a confrontation every game. To his defence, he is fouled over 3 times per 90 minutes, but he would still start a fight in an empty room. He also has had quite a few run-ins with James Ward-Prowse over the years, so expect a feisty battle.
On that note, I am also taking the Saints skipper for a card. Despite only averaging 1 foul a game, he will likely be on the mission to wind up Zaha again and the home crowd will be on his back. Hopefully he takes his card tally to 3 for the season.
A third player I am taking for a card is Lyanco. The Brazilian hot head should be restored to the side after he was benched for the disappointing 3-0 defeat to Arsenal. He is a player full of passion and this is shown in his card and foul stats. He has committed 5 fouls in his 2 Premier league starts, but is yet to pick up a yellow. However, the 24 year old received 8 yellows in 23 Serie A games last campaign with his rashness and dissent seeing him over-step the mark on numerous occasions. With Southampton’s back-line looking suspect with balls in behind, he could be in for a long evening against an exciting Eagles side.
Tino Livramento, Kyle Walker Peters and Romain Perraud all look good odds, but with uncertainty over who out of the trio starts and where, I will wait for team news before I decide whether to back any of them for a card too.
Main Fancy: James Ward-Prowse – 4.50 – Bet 365
Next Best: Wilf Zaha – 4.50 – Bet 365
Also: Lyanco – 4.50 – Bet 365
Game: Arsenal v West Ham
When: Wednesday 15th December – 20:00
Referee: Anthony Taylor
The final game this Wednesday is a London battle between 6th placed Arsenal and 4th placed West Ham.
The Gunners come into this game fresh from a 3-0 dismantling of Southampton so will be full of confidence. In fact, Mikael Arteta’s side have only failed to win at home twice all season. With all the talk around Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang being stripped of his captaincy and not being considered for selection, a lot of attention will be on Martin Ødegaard, Bukayo Saka, Gabriel Martinelli and Alexandre Lacazette to provide the goals.
West Ham have been hit and miss in the last few weeks, dropping points against Brighton, Burnley and Wolves but beating Chelsea. David Moyes will be hoping for a result tonight ahead of a nice run of fixtures for his Hammers side to build momentum for a Champions League push. Top scorer Michail Antonio is without a goal in 7 league games so West Ham will be hoping for a return to his once great early season goalscoring form.
Anthony Taylor is the man in the middle for this clash, and he comes in to it with one of the better EPL averages of 4.55 cards per game, including 4 reds in 20 appearances.
Similar to the Watford game, nothing in particular stands out card wise here – and NOT just because I’m still bitter about Taylor not booking Gavi after he had committed FOUR bookable challenges, but because no prices in particular stand out.
With Aubameyang still likely to be absent, Alexandre Lacazette will be the man leading the line for Arsenal and the Frenchman is the Gunners second top fouler, averaging 1.4 per game.
Pablo Fornals has 3 yellows this season and he will likely be tasked with tracking Bukayo Saka, who is Arsenal’s most fouled player (1.8PG).
Main Fancy: Alexandre Lacazette – 6.50 – Bet 365
Next Best: Pablo Fornals – 5.50 – Bet 365
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