We have been treated to a full program of midweek EFL games by the scheduling gods. What did we do to deserve such a thing? And if that doesn’t whet your appetite enough, I will be picking out some bets from my chosen games.
Queens Park Rangers vs. Blackpool
We start in West London, at Loftus Road and a tie between QPR and Blackpool.
Steven Gerrard’s ex right hand man Michael Beale has had a solid start to his managerial career, winning 1, drawing 1 and losing 1, with his side sat in 10th. The shock departure of Neil Critchley to replace Beale in the Villa dugout, saw the appointment of Michael Appleton at Blackpool. The 46-year-old has The Tangerines in 17th place with 1 win and 2 losses. They’ve been unspectacular in front of goal, with their sole goal coming in a home win over Reading.
A timid opening day defeat at Blackburn for Rangers was followed by an impressive 3-2 home win over Middlesbrough. The shift from a back 3 to a back 4 was seen as a major reason for this. Beale’s side then mounted a spectacular comeback at the Stadium of Light, scoring an 87th minute goal, before goalkeeper Seny Dieng salvaged a memorable point with a late header. QPR have a plethora of attacking talent amongst their ranks, most notably youngsters Ilias Chair and Chris Willock. Both combined for 32 goals and assists last season. In their only home game thus far, they won 3-2 vs a strong Middlesbrough side. This bodes well in preparation for the visit of Blackpool, who were routinely beaten away at a struggling Stoke side.
With odds of 2.05 on offer for a QPR win, I am happy to take them on board.
The next bet comes in the form of a player prop. Despite their steady start to the season, the Hoops have conceded an average of 12.33 shots per game. One player who I think can exploit this defensive fragility is Josh Bowler. The Everton academy graduate is Blackpool’s best player and has been linked with moves away. For now, he remains in Lancashire- much to the relief of EFL prop bettors! So far this season, Bowler has recorded 5, 3 and 5 shots in his opening 3 games. However, he has been priced at 1.90 to record 2 shots.
Matthew’s best angles
QPR to win – 2.05 @ Bet 365
Josh Bowler over 1.5 shots – 1.90 @ Bet 365
Fleetwood vs. Cheltenham
Sticking to the theme of Lancashire as Cheltenham travel to the North-West to face Fleetwood.
Scott Brown’s Fleetwood are thus far exceeding expectations, sitting in 13th place. An opening day defeat to Port Vale was followed by an impressive 2-1 victory over Plymouth. Saturday saw a tight scrappy 1-1 draw away to rivals Morecambe. Both teams to score has landed in all 3 games for the Cod Army. Fleetwood have a talented midfield of Josh Vela, Brendon Wierdu and Daniel Batty, as well as an abundance of goals in their side with Ged Garner, Joe Garner, Paddy Lane and Callum Morton amongst their ranks.
Cheltenham have had a disastrous start to this campaign, losing all 3 games, struggling with the departure of head coach Michael Duff. A second half capitulation at home to Peterborough set the tone for the Robins next 3 games in all competitions. A 7-0 Carabao Cup defeat to Exeter was sandwiched in between 1-0 and 2-0 league defeats to Barnsley and Portsmouth. With a squad lacking in real quality and the potential departure of striker Alfie May, things are not looking good for Wade Elliott’s side. I can see them shipping a few in Lancashire. However, they will take inspiration from a leaky Fleetwood defense that conceded 82 goals last season.
Fleetwood have also excelled in drawing cards from their opponents. In their 3 games this season, they have drawn 3, 4 and 2 cards. They’ve also picked up 1, 1 and 2 cards, so their games are consistent for cards.
We can take encouragement from Cheltenham’s poor disciplinary record. In their 4 games in all competitions, they’ve picked up 2,4,2,2 cards. Referee Andrew Kitchen has also given at least 4 cards in the 3 games he has officiated this campaign.
Finally, I am keen to get stuck into the goal-scorer market. Daniel Batty is priced 5.0 to get his name on the scoresheet. The midfielder has been getting in advanced positions and has 2 goals in 3 league starts. He also has recorded 2, 3,3 shots in his games as-well as being on set pieces.
Matthew’s best angles
Over 2.5 goals – 1.9 @ Bet 365
30+ Cheltenham booking points – @ 1.83- Sky Bet
Daniel Batty to score – 5.0 @ Bet 365
Barrow vs. Walsall
Last but not least, League 2. This league is always too tight to call and this is the case again with only one team priced less than evens to win. The bookmakers can’t split the league and neither can I. So, I have gone safe in Cumbria.
Barrow have impressed so far under new man Pete Wild. Backed by many (not me and Oli!) for relegation, The Bluebirds sit in the lofty heights of 6th. Back-to-back 3-2 wins over my two favorites for promotion in Stockport and Bradford was followed by a 1-0 defeat away at Sutton. Wild has got his side playing counter attacking football and it has seemed to work a treat so far.
They face an unbeaten Walsall side who have enjoyed an unbeaten start to the season under Michael Flynn. A comprehensive opening day 4-0 dismantling of Hartlepool was followed by a smash and grab 1-0 away victory at Newport. Then late heartbreak was the story of the day at home to Stevenage, with a 90+10-minute Danny Rose equalizer breaking Walsall hearts. However, if you offered Flynn 2nd place after 3 games the Welshman would’ve snapped your hand off. In Danny Johnson, The Saddlers boast one of the league’s most clinical strikers, with the 29-year-old on 4 goals for his new club.
Whilst only 2/3 Barrow games and 1/3 Walsall games have seen over 2 goals, the low line Bet 365 has set intrigues me. With Barrow at home, I expect them to score. As mentioned before, Johnson is a striker in fine form and will be licking his lips at facing a Barrow defense that has conceded in every game. I expect this game to replicate the Bradford and Stockport games- a high scoring contest.
Matthew’s best angle
Over 2.0 Asian goal line – 1.825 @ Bet 365
Comments are closed