It’s matchday in Iceland, as Besta Deildin is close to its pinnacle with the standings somewhat vulnerable to big movers that can affect their inaugural top/bottom 6 playoff placements. As things stand, some teams are on the brink of being too close to the drop zone, European places or could well make the switch between top and bottom here. IceTips is giving us his insight on the matches taking place in the 19th round of Besta Deildin, sharing his official CBK wagers as well as some longshots, which we all love!
ÍBV vs. Stjarnan
Hásteinsvöllur, Vestmannaeyjar
14:00 local time – 15:00 BST
The verdict: An eruption of goals incoming
I’ve been wrong about ÍBV going into this season and I’ll fully admit I didn’t expect them to be a place above 11th this time around, but the Vestmannaeyjar side have been playing some decent football with Hermann Hreiðarsson at the wheel. While they can’t expect to contest the top, they’re currently 9th and were absolutely not done any favors by the three teams below them picking up three points in the last round as FH, Leiknir and ÍA are firmly breathing down their necks. Having acquired 10 of their 15 points at home this season they’ll be given a run for their money as they’re hosting a side brimming with youthful exuberance in Stjarnan, which is a relatively strong away side.
While having to endure a boat ride to Vestmannaeyjar for this one, Stjarnan have a lot of swagger this season. Supporters went into the ’22 season with minimal expectations of success but are very happy to support a side that’s giving local talent the run in the first team, seeing it as a part of a long term project. That’s been true – and the success of their project has been decent as well. Youngster Óli Valur Ómarsson caught the eye of foreign scouts and was sold to Sirius in Allsvenskan and a few more u20 players have been gaining match experience – Eggert Aron Guðmundsson (2004) and Ísak Andri Sigurgeirsson (2003) have played every match. Adolf Daði Birgisson (2004) and Guðmundur Baldvin Nökkvason (2004) have also been featuring. The surprise performer for Stjarnan though has been forward Emil Atlason who’s playing – by far – his best season to date and has scored 11 goals for that Garðabær side. Stjarnan is 5th in the league currently and there’s opportunity to push higher as well as drop to the lower playoff – KR, Fram and Keflavík are not far behind and following their IBV encounter, Stjarnan plays both Keflavík and KR.
The blunt statistics are simple:
In their last 10 marches, the average Stjarnan match sees 4.2 goals per match – 1.90 for, 2.3 against. Stjarnan have scored in 9 of those, opponents have scored on them in 9 of those as well, 8 of the last 10 have seen 3 or more goals and 7 in a row have seen 3 or more scored.
IBV have the same goal average from their last 2, 4.2 goals per match on average, they’ve scored 2.0 and conceded 2.2. ÍBV themselves have scored in 7 of their last 10 and opponents have scored on them in 9 of those. 9 of their last 10 have seen 3 or more goals scored and similarly to Stjarnan, it’s been 7 in a row where so many goals are scored.
Betting angle: Over 2.5 goals & Both teams to score – Bet365 @ 1.8
The longshot: Over 2.5 goals in the first half & Both teams to score in the first half – Bet365 @ 6.5
Keflavík vs. ÍA
Nettóvöllurinn, Keflavík
17:00 local time – 18:00 BST
The verdict: I score goals with a little help from my (Faroese) friends
Keflavík are definitely not suffering from second season syndrome and are comfortably placed mid-table, although they’re not safe from a few bad results that could see them slip into the dreaded relegation struggle. That being said, some good results could lift them up into the top tier playoff group – especially if teams around them start slipping up. They’re 7 points ahead of ÍBV in 8th place, three points behind KR who sit 6th. Last season, Keflavík escaped relegation by the skin of their teeth in an action packed match vs. ÍA – who also embarked on a great escape in the final rounds and it’ll be easy to motivate Keflavík to not allow that to happen. Keflavík absoulety in the final third of the pitch while struggling somewhat at the back – 29 goals scored versus 32 conceded, despite having a fantastic shot stopper in Sindri Kristinn Ólafsson. Despite only being 25 years old he’s one of the team’s more experienced players and reportedly rejected an offer from Oldham last season to stay on in Keflavík. Don’t know whether that says more about Oldham or Keflavík? Keflavík also employs a decent variety of goalscorers although their main striker, Faroese international Patrik Johannesson has been clinical in the six yard box.
A bad season for ÍA – despite a promising first two matches – has seen them glued to the bottom of the table for most of the summer. An absence of many things is to blame; cohesive game plan, quality, goals scored, defensive options or team spirit – pick one! However, the team rallied around the project at hand last round and defeated ÍBV at home 2-1, marking their first points in two months and first win in four months! It was a relief for supporters to finally celebrate a victory and momentarily lift themselves off the bottom of the table. It was their supporters who rallied their side to complete an epic Great Escape last season which culminated in a spectacular match in Keflavík where ÍA turned a 2-0 deficit to a 3-2 victory. ÍA is still searching for a proper first team goalkeeper and a clinical striker is sorely needed, and the Akranes side is hoping summer signing Kristian Lindberg can score more than 3 goals – as their goalscoring hasn’t been fantastic. Faroese Kaj Leo í Bartalsstovu leads the charge for ÍA currently but he’s still been one of few showing consistent quality.
Keflavík are the obvious goal choice here as they’ve managed to score in 8 of their last 10. 7 of 9 home matches have seen them score and 7 opponents have scored a goal against them at home. ÍA has only scored in 10 matches this season, so we need them to perform perfectly here. They can however take it to their advantage that they’ve scored against some of the best sides in the league.
Betting angle: Over 2.5 goals & Both teams to score – Bet365 @ 1.9
The longshot: Each team to score 2 or more goals & ÍA to win either half – Bet365 @ 7.0
KR vs. FH
Frostaskjól, Reykjavík
17:00 local time – 18:00 BST
Betting angle: Set pieces for the win
Clashing here are two teams we’ve mentioned in the above recaps. Opposite ends of the table for both but they are both very vulnerably placed as things stand. FH finally managed to win a match last Monday Vs. Keflavík, their first league victory in three months. FH is however still in the semifinals of the Cup but there’s no chance anyone who’s backed this most successful Icelandic club since the turn of the century is willing to risk relegation. Their last match against Keflavík was their best all summer and a rallying cry by the board to coaches, players and supporters to show unity appears to have worked. Very few key players have been as good as expected but it’s the time of season where they need to show what they’re made of.
The most decorated side in Icelandic football since a ball was first kicked here, however, is KR. In a rather disappointing season for them they’re not in an immediate battle for the top 3 spots albeit in the top six bracket currently. Again, as mentioned before, they’re not far off the bottom six and they’ve seemingly lacked consistency this season – in something else than being underperforming in the very least. Transfers for them have been underwhelming and very few key players have shown they’re among the best in the country – aside from midfielder Atli Sigurjónsson.
The angle we’re taking on here are corner kicks. FH is currently the best side in Besta Deildin when it comes to corners averaged per match, which is about the only area where they’ve excelled this season. The average FH match sees 12.94 corners and it’s pretty evenly split – FH gets 6.88 corners on the average and opponents 6.06. KR is 4th in the table when it comes to this particular set piece, 11.47 per match while they themselves pick up 7.06 of them, opponents 4.41. Looking at their last 10 however sees KR having played matches with 13 corners on average (10-10-15-6-14-15-9-13-21-15) and FH has 11.7 average in their last 10 (18, 8, 11, 9, 5, 10, 15, 15, 13, 13). I’m very expectant to see a back-and-forth, end-to-end match here and based on that I’m playing corners.
Betting angle: Over 11.0 asian corners – Bet365 @ 1.95
The longshot: Over 15 total corners – Bet365 @ 8.0
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