Game: Norwich v Aston Villa
When: Tuesday 14th December – 19:45
Referee: David Coote
The first of Tuesday’s two games sees Dean Smith face off against his former employers, as lowly (how does it feel Wrighty?) Norwich host Aston Villa at Carrow Road.
Dean Smith has overseen 5 Canaries games, accumulating 5 points. Despite this, Norwich’s impotency in front of goal has not improved, with 3 goals scored in this time, with 1 of them coming late against a Newcastle side playing with ten men for 80+ minutes. They do, however, look more organised, with the packed midfield 3 providing a solid shield for a previously leaky back 4. Billy Gilmour has found his way back into the side after the departure of Daniel Farke and has seemed to rejuvenate the midfield. As alluded to earlier, Norwich have failed to impress in front of goal, scoring 8 in 16. They are currently on course to score the fewest goals in a Premier League season (20.)
Liverpool legend Steven Gerrard has had a profound effect on Aston Villa, recording 3 wins from 5, with the 2 defeats coming against English powerhouses Man City and Liverpool. In these 5 games, Villa’s highest possession recorded was 41% against Leicester, with the games against Brighton, Palace, City and Liverpool seeing Gerrard’s side record less than 40% possession. He likes to sit deep, pack the midfield and counterattack, so I expect a cagey battle which will be won in the midfield.
It is the midfield battle where I am attracted to cards in this game. Refereeing this tie is card enthusiast David Coote who has shown 4.7 yellows per game this season, with 3 reds in 11. This average has been brought down by the 0 cards shown in the Carabao Cup game between Preston & Liverpool. In the Premier League, he has shown just shy of 6 yellows per game and 2 reds in his 8 games.
The first card price that catches my eye is Billy Gilmour. The young scot has recorded 1.1 fouls per game. In Smith’s 5 games thus far, Gilmour has received 2 yellow cards, making 2 fouls in 2 other games. In addition to this, the 3 midfielders he is likely to be up against (Luiz, Nakamba and McGinn) have been fouled 4.4 times between them this campaign. In the games since Gerrard’s arrival, centre midfielders have combined for 29 fouls (5.8 PG) and 3 bookings (0.6PG). The tackle numbers for opposition midfielders also stand out. Fabinho and Dewsbury hall made 3, Rodri made 4, Gallagher, Kouyate and Ndidi made 5, with Bissouma recording a whooping 7 tackles. With a tight battle expected in midfield, I am keen to back a Norwich central player for a card. Mclean and Gilmour are both 5.0 to receive a caution, but I am going to stick with the tried and tested Gilmour card.
A player who could make his first start since April is Morgan Sanson. The French midfielder was unfancied by Dean Smith but may be called upon by Gerrard due to an injury to Nakamba. In 3 Premier League starts last season, Sanson was booked 3 times. He has been booked 5, 9 and 8 times in his last three full seasons. In his brief cameos this season, Sanson averages 1.19 fouls per full game. He will be keen to prove Dean Smith wrong so he may be more pumped up and if the game plays out as expected, he will be seeing a lot of action. He wasn’t going to get a mention from me as I will not be sharing any selections under 4.0 odds and he was 3.5 on bet 365, however a late sky-bet pricing has him at 4.0 odds.
Main Fancy: Billy Gilmour – 5.0 – Bet 365.
Next Best: Morgan Sanson – 4.0 – Sky Bet.
Game: Manchester City v Leeds
When: Tuesday 14th December – 20:00
Referee: Paul Tierney
The final fixture for this article sees the blue half of Manchester welcome Leeds to the Etihad.
Last season’s champions sit on top of the pile currently with 38 points from 16 games. They are on a 6-game winning streak and are a lot of people’s (mine included) title favourites. Portuguese duo Bernardo Silva and Joao Cancelo have been the standout performers for Pep’s side. However, the latter is suspended due to an accumulation of 5 yellow cards with Ukranian Oleksandr Zinchenko likely to fill the huge void left by Cancelo’s absence.
Leeds have been crippled with injuries, most notably to Patrick Bamford and key man Kalvin Phillips. The injury to the Yorkshire Pirlo is arguably the most hard-hitting, with Bielsa having to field a makeshift midfield in his absence. One player who has stepped up is Adam Forshaw, with the previously injury riddled midfielder feeling like a new signing in the centre of the park for Leeds.
With Leeds only registering 1 away win all season (against Norwich), I cannot see them improving their road trip record improving at a rampant Manchester City side and am predicting a comfortable 3-0 home win.
On to cards. Paul Tierney is the man in charge of this one and has an average of 3.57 yellows per game.
My main fancy for this tie is the aforementioned Oleksandr Zinchenko for a yellow card. Whilst the Ukrainian doesn’t rank highly for yellow cards/fouls, he averages 1 foul per domestic game when playing left back. In addition, 4 full backs have been booked against Leeds in the last 5 games and 9 in total this season. With Kyle Walker possessing phenomenal pace and recovery speed at right-back, Leeds may feel they’ll be able to exploit the City left flank with Raphinha or Daniel James.
Another City player that looks too high odds for a booking is Rodri. The Spanish midfielder has committed the most fouls for City this season (1.5PG) and picked up 4 yellows in all competitions. In his previous two seasons for the Citizens, Rodri has accumulated 14 cards. He is best priced at a chunky 7.5 for a yellow card.
For a Leeds card, I am going for a player I seem to tip every week, Adam Forshaw. The midfielder has been a changed man since his injury and is now a mainstay in Marco Bielsa’s side. He commits 1.88 fouls per game and has received 2 cautions. Without Phillips, he is the main defensive anchor in the side, so he has a big task on his hand trying to contain a potent City attack. Forshaw is a player who plays with his heart on his sleeve, and this sometimes finds him in the referee’s notebook. In total, 6 centre midfielders have been given a yellow against Pep’s side, with Xhaka also being sent off. Let’s hope Forshaw makes it 7.
Main Fancy: Oleksandr Zinchenko – 10.0 – Sky Bet.
Next Best: Rodri – 7.5 – Bet 365.
Also: Adam Forshaw – 4.50 – Bet 365.
Good luck if you are tailing, let’s hope the team news is kind to us and both referees are in terrible moods tonight! I will be back tomorrow with my previews for Wednesday’s games!
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